Sept. Consumer Confidence Index 86 vs 92.5 Expected Sep 30, 2014 10:00AM

Sept. Consumer Confidence Index 86 vs 92.5 Expected

More from the Conference Board:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in August, declined in September. The Index now stands at 86.0 (1985=100), down from 93.4 in August. The Present Situation Index decreased to 89.4 from 93.9, while the Expectations Index dropped to 83.7 from 93.1 in August.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 18.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “Consumer confidence retreated in September after four consecutive months of improvement. A less positive assessment of the current job market, most likely due to the recent softening in growth, was the sole reason for the decline in consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions. Looking ahead, consumers were less confident about the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market, and somewhat mixed regarding their future earnings potential. All told, consumers expect economic growth to ease in the months ahead.”

Consumers assessed current conditions less favorably in September compared to a month ago. Their view of business conditions was virtually unchanged: those saying conditions are “good” fell minutely, from 23.5 to 23.4 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” held constant at 21.3 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market declined more appreciably, with the proportion stating jobs are “plentiful” falling from 17.6 percent to 15.1 percent. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” was barely changed, at 30.1 percent versus 30.0 percent in August.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook declined considerably in September. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell from 20.8 percent to 18.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen rose from 9.9 percent to 12.0 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market likewise took a downturn. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead fell from 17.8 percent to 15.2 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose from 15.2 percent to 17.8 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting growth in their incomes rose in September to 16.8 percent, compared to 15.5 percent in August. However, the proportion expecting a drop in income also rose—to 13.4 percent versus 11.6 percent a month ago.


UPDATE: September Chicago Purchasing Manager 60.5 vs 62 Expected Sep 30, 2014 09:53AM

(Updated - September 30, 2014 9:53 AM EDT)

September Chicago Purchasing Manager 60.5 vs 62 Expected

More from the Institute for Supply Management - Chicago:

The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.8 points to a still robust 60.5 in September, as Production and New Orders slowed while firms reported a record rise in stocks and a sharp increase in input prices.

With the latest fall, the Barometer ended Q3 at an average of 59.1, down from the weather boosted 63.7 rate seen in Q2, but still showing the US economy is growing at a healthy clip.

There was a surprisingly sharp increase in stocks with firms adding inventories of finished goods at the fastest pace since February 1973. Feedback suggested firms were preparing for robust sales forecasts and potential spikes in unplanned orders.

Despite September‘s fall, the Barometer stands above Q1‘s level and the 10-year average of 55.8, with respondents deeming activity levels as ”strong“ and “surging“, aided by ongoing demand, successful sales promotions and organic growth, all of which called for inventory builds.

The three ordering components fell back after strong readings in August. Production and New Orders, however, remained firm around 60, while Order Backlogs stood above 50 for the second consecutive month. A number of respondents reported that September’s slight slowing was expected to be temporary as businesses reported strong bookings through the end of October.

In contrast, Employment and Supplier Deliveries contributed positively to the Barometer, with the latter lengthening to the longest since April 2011.

There were tentative signs that demand pressures are starting to put some upward pressure on prices. In spite of the recent fall in oil prices, Prices Paid increased to the highest level since November 2012.

Commenting on the Chicago Report, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, ”Activity levels remained buoyant in September and point to continued firm economic growth. Moreoever, the record pace of stockbulilding suggests firms are increasingly confident that things will keep improving.“


UPDATE: September Chicago Purchasing Manager 60.5 vs 62 Expected Sep 30, 2014 09:53AM

(Updated - September 30, 2014 9:53 AM EDT)

September Chicago Purchasing Manager 60.5 vs 62 Expected

More from the Institute for Supply Management - Chicago:

The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 3.8 points to a still robust 60.5 in September, as Production and New Orders slowed while firms reported a record rise in stocks and a sharp increase in input prices.

With the latest fall, the Barometer ended Q3 at an average of 59.1, down from the weather boosted 63.7 rate seen in Q2, but still showing the US economy is growing at a healthy clip.

There was a surprisingly sharp increase in stocks with firms adding inventories of finished goods at the fastest pace since February 1973. Feedback suggested firms were preparing for robust sales forecasts and potential spikes in unplanned orders.

Despite September‘s fall, the Barometer stands above Q1‘s level and the 10-year average of 55.8, with respondents deeming activity levels as ”strong“ and “surging“, aided by ongoing demand, successful sales promotions and organic growth, all of which called for inventory builds.

The three ordering components fell back after strong readings in August. Production and New Orders, however, remained firm around 60, while Order Backlogs stood above 50 for the second consecutive month. A number of respondents reported that September’s slight slowing was expected to be temporary as businesses reported strong bookings through the end of October.

In contrast, Employment and Supplier Deliveries contributed positively to the Barometer, with the latter lengthening to the longest since April 2011.

There were tentative signs that demand pressures are starting to put some upward pressure on prices. In spite of the recent fall in oil prices, Prices Paid increased to the highest level since November 2012.

Commenting on the Chicago Report, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, ”Activity levels remained buoyant in September and point to continued firm economic growth. Moreoever, the record pace of stockbulilding suggests firms are increasingly confident that things will keep improving.“


Dallas Fed August Manf. Activity 10.8 vs 10.5 Expected Sep 29, 2014 10:30AM

Dallas Fed August Manf. Activity 10.8 vs 10.5 Expected


August MoM Pending Homes Sales -1% vs -0.5% Expected Sep 29, 2014 10:00AM

August MoM Pending Homes Sales -1% vs -0.5% Expected

Traders are watching the following stocks and ETFs:

D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE: DHI)
Pulte Group (NYSE: PHM)
KB Home (NYSE: KBH)
Lennar Corp. Cl A (NYSE: LEN)
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Cl A (NYSE: HOV)
Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE: SPF)
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE: TOL)
Ryland Group, Inc. (NYSE: RYL)
Meritage Homes Corp. (NYSE: MTH)
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE: BZH)
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (NYSE: XHB)

UPDATE - More from teh NAR below:

Pending home sales slowed modestly in August but contract signings remain at their second-highest level over the past year, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All major regions experienced declines except for the West, which rose for the fourth consecutive month.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 1.0 percent to 104.7 in August from 105.8 in July, and is now 2.2 percent below August 2013 (107.1). Despite the slight decline, the index is above 100 – considered an average level of contract activity – for the fourth consecutive month and is at the second-highest level since last August.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says contract signings are holding steady and fewer distressed sales and less investor activity is likely behind August’s modest decline. “Fewer distressed homes at bargain prices and the acknowledgement we’re entering a rising interest rate environment likely caused hesitation among investors last month,” he said. “With investors pulling back, the market is shifting more towards traditional and first-time buyers who rely on mortgages to purchase a home.”

According to NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 81 percent of first-time buyers in 2013 who financed their purchase obtained a conventional or FHA loan1. Overall, first-time homebuyers have been less prevalent from the housing recovery, representing less than a third of all buyers each month for the past two years2.

Yun says first-time buyer participation should gradually improve despite tight credit conditions and the inevitable rise in rates. “The employment outlook for young adults is brightening and their incomes3 finally appear to be rising,” he said. “Jobs and income gains will help repay student debt and better position first-time buyers, setting the stage for improved sales growth in upcoming years.”

The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 3.0 percent to 86.5 in August, but is still 1.6 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index fell 2.1 percent to 102.4 in August, and is 7.6 percent below August 2013.

Pending home sales in the South decreased 1.4 percent to an index of 117.0 in August, unchanged from a year ago. The index in the West rose for the fourth consecutive month (2.6 percent) in August to 102.1, but still remains 2.6 percent below August 2013.

Existing-home sales are expected to be stronger in the second half of the year behind improved inventory conditions, continuously low interest rates and slower price growth. Overall, Yun forecasts existing-homes sales to be down 3.0 percent this year to 4.94 million, compared to 5.09 million sales of existing homes in 2013. The national median existing-home price is projected to grow between 5 and 6 percent this year and 4 and 5 percent next year.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

142 percent obtained a conventional loan; 39 percent received financing through a FHA loan.

2According to the Realtors Confidence Index, July 2012 (at 34 percent) was the last time first-time buyers represented over a third of all buyers.

3According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the median household income for Americans ages 15-24 rose 10.5 percent in 2013.


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Sep 25, 2014 10:30AM Natural Gas Inventory 97 bcf vs 95 bcf Expected
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Sep 22, 2014 10:04AM UPDATE: U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell 1.8% to 5.05M in Aug.; South, West Pressure Gains (XHB)
Sep 22, 2014 10:04AM UPDATE: U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell 1.8% to 5.05M in Aug.; South, West Pressure Gains (XHB)
Sep 22, 2014 10:04AM UPDATE: U.S. Existing Home Sales Fell 1.8% to 5.05M in Aug.; South, West Pressure Gains (XHB)
Sep 19, 2014 10:00AM August Leading Index 0.2%% vs 0.4% Expected
Sep 18, 2014 12:00PM Household Change in Net Worth 1.39 Trillion vs 1.49 Trillion Prior
Sep 18, 2014 10:31AM Natural Gas Inventory 90 bcf vs 91 bcf Expected
Sep 18, 2014 10:00AM Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 22.5 vs 23 Expected
Sep 18, 2014 08:36AM UPDATE: U.S. Housing Starts Miss Expectations at 956K in August (XHB)
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Sep 18, 2014 08:36AM UPDATE: U.S. Housing Starts Miss Expectations at 956K in August (XHB)
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Sep 17, 2014 10:36AM UPDATE: Crude Inventories Rose 3.67 Million Barrels
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