Oct. University of Michigan Confidence 86.9 vs 86.4 Expected Oct 31, 2014 09:55AM

Oct. F University of Michigan Confidence 86.9 vs 86.4 Expected


Oct. Chicago Purchasing Manger Index 66.2 vs 60 Expected Oct 31, 2014 09:45AM

Oct. Chicago Purchasing Manger Index 66.2 vs 60 Expected

UPDATE - More from ISM - Chicago:

The Chicago Business Barometer rose 5.7 points to a one year high of 66.2 in October, fueled by a double digit gain in New Orders.

The bounceback in the Barometer marks a solid start to Q4 and suggests that against a backdrop of concerns about weakening growth in Europe and China, the US economy is still growing firmly.

New Orders was the strongest component of the Barometer and increased sharply to 73.6, the highest level since October 2013.

Production also strengthened further following a sharp decline in the previous month, and has been running at a firm pace for some time now.

The October survey also showed that higher demand and solid output encouraged companies to create jobs. Employment increased to the highest level since November 2013, a potential sign that the recovery is becoming more entrenched.

While the level of Inventories eased from the 41-year high seen in September, it remained firm and points to a continued stock build in line with strong sales forecasts and to cope with potential spikes in unplanned orders.

Order Backlogs also expanded faster, while Supplier Deliveries declined for the first time in six months, contributing negatively to the Barometer but giving some relief to business.

Lower crude oil prices saw inflationary pressures ease, with the Prices Paid measure falling below the average seen over the past year.


Q3 Employment Cost Index 0.7% vs 0.5% Expected Oct 31, 2014 08:31AM

Q3 Employment Cost Index 0.7% vs 0.5% Expected


Sept. Personal Income 0.2% vs 0.3% Expected, Spending -0.2% vs 0.1% Oct 31, 2014 08:30AM

Sept. Personal Income 0.2% vs 0.3% Expected, Spending -0.2% vs 0.1%

UPDATE - More from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Personal income increased $22.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $15.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $19.0 billion, or 0.2 percent. In August, personal income increased $50.7 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $37.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, and PCE increased $58.7 billion, or 0.5 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real DPI increased less than 0.1 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in August. Real PCE decreased 0.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.5 percent.


2014
May June July Aug. Sept.
(Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1
Chained (2009) dollars 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.5 -0.2
Chained (2009) dollars 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.2
Wages and salaries

Private wages and salaries increased $12.6 billion in September, compared with an increase of $36.3 billion in August.

Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $0.7 billion, compared with an increase of $4.8 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $0.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $2.2 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls increased $11.9 billion, compared with an increase of $31.4 billion. Government wages and salaries increased $1.4 billion, compared with an increase of $0.9 billion.

Other personal income

Supplements to wages and salaries increased $3.5 billion in September, compared with an increase of $5.2 billion in August.

Proprietors' income decreased $0.8 billion in September, compared with a decrease of $9.9 billion in August. Farm proprietors' income decreased $9.2 billion in September, the same decrease as in August. Nonfarm proprietors' income increased $8.4 billion in September, in contrast to a decrease of $0.7 billion in August.

Rental income of persons increased $1.5 billion in September, compared with an increase of $5.2 billion in August.

Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) decreased $1.1 billion, compared with a decrease of $2.5 billion. Personal current transfer receipts increased $7.5 billion, compared with an increase of $20.7 billion.

Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $1.8 billion in September, compared with an increase of $5.1 billion in August.

Personal current taxes and disposable personal income

Personal current taxes increased $7.0 billion in September, compared with an increase of $13.2 billion in August. Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased $15.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, in September, compared with an increase of $37.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, in August.

Personal outlays and personal saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- decreased $14.5 billion in September, in contrast to an increase of $63.4 billion in August. PCE decreased $19.0 billion, in contrast to an increase of $58.7 billion.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $732.2 billion in September, compared with $702.0 billion in August.

The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.6 percent in September, compared with 5.4 percent in August. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/nipa-frb.asp.

Real DPI, real PCE, and price index

Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- increased less than 0.1 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in August.

Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.2 percent in September, in contrast to an increase of 0.5 percent in August.

Purchases of durable goods decreased 1.9 percent , in contrast to an increase of 2.3 percent. Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted for most of the decrease in September, and accounted for most of the increase in August. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 0.3 percent in September, in contrast to an increase of 0.2 percent in August. Purchases of services increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent.

The price index for PCE increased 0.1 percent in September, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in August. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in September, the same increase as in August.

The September price index for PCE increased 1.4 percent from September a year ago. The September PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.5 percent from September a year ago.

Revisions

Estimates have been revised for July and August. Changes in personal income, in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI, and in current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar PCE for July and August -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

Change from preceding month
July August
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars 35.9 41.6 0.2 0.3 47.3 50.7 0.3 0.3
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 24.6 29.3 0.2 0.2 35.2 37.5 0.3 0.3
Chained (2009) dollars 12.0 16.9 0.1 0.1 37.9 40.3 0.3 0.3
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars 0.5 4.4 0.0 0.0 57.5 58.7 0.5 0.5
Chained (2009) dollars -9.1 -5.1 -0.1 0.0 57.8 59.4 0.5 0.5



Natural Gas Inventory 87 bcf vs 84 bcf Expected Oct 30, 2014 10:30AM

Natural Gas Inventory 87 bcf vs 84 bcf Expected

Traders are watching futures and ETFs like United States Natural Gas (NYSE: UNG).


More Economic Data

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Oct 30, 2014 08:31AM Q3 GDP 3.5% vs 3% Expected
Oct 30, 2014 08:30AM Initial Jobless Claims 287K vs 285K Expected
Oct 29, 2014 10:32AM UPDATE: Crude Inventory 2M Barrels vs 3.13M Expected
Oct 29, 2014 10:32AM UPDATE: Crude Inventory 2M Barrels vs 3.13M Expected
Oct 29, 2014 07:00AM MBA Mortgage Applications -6.6% vs 11.6% Prior
Oct 28, 2014 10:00AM Oct. Consumer Confidence Index 94.5 vs 87 Expected
Oct 28, 2014 09:59AM Richmond Fed Manf. Index 20 vs 11 Expected
Oct 28, 2014 09:00AM CaseShiller MoM 20-City Index -0.15%% vs 0.20% Expected
Oct 28, 2014 08:30AM Sept. Durable Goods Orders -1.3% vs 0.5% Expected; Ex Trans -0.2% vs 0.5%
Oct 27, 2014 10:30AM Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 10.5 vs 11 Expected
Oct 27, 2014 10:00AM Sept. Pending Home Sales 0.3% vs 1% Expected
Oct 27, 2014 09:45AM Markit US Services PMI 57.3 vs 57.8 Expected
Oct 24, 2014 10:00AM Sept New Home Sales 467K vs 470K Expected, 0.2% MoM vs -6.8% Expected
Oct 23, 2014 10:30AM Natural Gas Inventory 94 bcf vs 98 bcf Expected
Oct 23, 2014 10:00AM Sept. Leading Index 0.8% vs 0.7% Expected
Oct 23, 2014 09:02AM FHFA House Price Index 0.5% vs 0.3% Expected
Oct 23, 2014 08:30AM Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.47 vs 0.15 Expected
Oct 23, 2014 08:30AM Initial Jobless Claims 283K vs 281K Expected
Oct 22, 2014 10:33AM UPDATE: Crude Inventory 7.1M Barrels vs 2.8M Expected
Oct 22, 2014 10:33AM UPDATE: Crude Inventory 7.1M Barrels vs 2.8M Expected
Oct 22, 2014 08:31AM Sept. CPI 0.1% vs 0.0% Expected, Ex-food and Energy 0.1% vs 0.1%
Oct 22, 2014 07:00AM MBA Mortgage Applications 11.6% vs 5.6% Prior
Oct 21, 2014 10:00AM Existing Home Sales 5.17M vs 5.1M Expected; +2.4% vs +1% Expected
Oct 17, 2014 09:55AM October P Univerity of Michigan Confidence 86.4 vs 84 Expected
Oct 17, 2014 08:30AM Sept Housing Starts 1017K vs 1008K Expected, Up 6.3% MoM
Oct 16, 2014 04:00PM August Net Long Term Tick Flows $52.1B
Oct 16, 2014 11:03AM UPDATE: Crude Inventory Grows 8.9M Barrels vs 2.3M Expected
Oct 16, 2014 11:03AM UPDATE: Crude Inventory Grows 8.9M Barrels vs 2.3M Expected
Oct 16, 2014 10:30AM Natural Gas Inventory 94 bcf vs 90 bcf Expected
Oct 16, 2014 10:00AM NAHB Housing Market Index 54 vs 59 Expected
Oct 16, 2014 09:59AM Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 20.7 vs 19.8 Expected
Oct 16, 2014 09:15AM Sept Industrial Production 1% vs 0.4% Expeted
Oct 16, 2014 08:30AM Initial Jobless Claims 264K vs 290K Expected
Oct 15, 2014 11:00AM U.S. Monthly Budget Statement $105.8B vs $90B Expected
Oct 15, 2014 10:00AM August Business Inventories 0.2% vs 0.4% Expected
Oct 15, 2014 08:31AM Sept. PPI Final Demand -0.1% vs 0.1% Expected, Ex-Food Energy 0.0% vs 0.1%
Oct 15, 2014 08:30AM Oct. Empire Manufacturing 6.17 vs 20.25 Expected
Oct 15, 2014 08:30AM Sept. MoM Retail Sales Advance -0.3% vs -0.1% Expected
Oct 15, 2014 07:00AM MBA Mortgage Applications 5.6% vs 3.8% Prior
Oct 10, 2014 08:30AM Sept. MoM Import Price Index -0.5% vs -0.7% Expected
Oct 9, 2014 10:30AM Natural Gas Inventory 105 bcf vs 109 bcf Expected
Oct 9, 2014 10:00AM August MoM Wholesale Inventories -0.7% vs 0.3%
Oct 9, 2014 08:30AM Initial Jobless Claims 287K vs 295K Expected
Oct 8, 2014 10:34AM UPDATE: Crude Inventory 5M Barrels vs 1.68M Expected
Oct 8, 2014 10:34AM UPDATE: Crude Inventory 5M Barrels vs 1.68M Expected
Oct 8, 2014 07:32AM Markets Quiet Ahead of FOMC Minutes
Oct 8, 2014 07:00AM MBA Mortgage Applications 3.8% vs -0.2% Prior
Oct 7, 2014 03:01PM August Consumer Credit $13.5B vs $20B Expected
Oct 7, 2014 10:01AM JOLTS Job Openings 4.84M vs 4.7M Expected
Oct 7, 2014 09:03AM U.S. Comp Sales Rose 5.4% Last Week - Redbook
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