BCA's 'MacroQuant Model' is flashing amber, but not yet red

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Go back to BCA's 'MacroQuant Model' is flashing amber, but not yet red

Goldman: 'we expect policy news, ISM services (Tue) and several Fed officials speeches to be key macro catalysts this week'

August 4, 2025 12:26 PM EDT

Goldman: 'we expect policy news, ISM services (Tue) and several Fed officials speeches to be key macro catalysts this week'.

The analyst comments "S&P 500 average stock 1-month implied volatility was up 1 point to 29 (51st %-ile vs the past year) and the average stock 1-month realized volatility was up 2 points to 26 (30th %-ile vs the past year) as the market... More

Evercore on US Markets: 'Near term volatility, -7% to -15% pullback remains base case'

August 4, 2025 10:25 AM EDT

Evercore on US Markets: 'Near term volatility, -7% to -15% pullback remains base case'

The analyst comments "Navigation Bucking Bull Change Happens Gradually, Then Suddenly: Investors growing comfortable with Change dominating newsflow over the Summer Tariffs, capital markets, AI bid stocks up Gradually to an historically expensive 25xTTM P/E (Figure 1), and drove volatility to rarely seen lows. Figure 1: While It Isn't Y2K's 28x, at 25x Change Happens Gradually Then Suddenly, Especially in Aug/Sept And so when the News hit this past week on Tariffs... More