Oppenheimer sees AI software winners as focus shifts to ROI

Investing.com - Oppenheimer said the AI transition has moved beyond experimentation and into the ROI phase, with enterprise spending increasingly focused on measurable business outcomes rather than adoption metrics.

AI is becoming a recurring operating expense, with CFOs evaluating AI investment alongside labor cost and demanding clear returns on investment, according to the firm's research. AI spending is becoming more disciplined, value creation is moving up the IT stack, and investors are placing greater scrutiny on software vendors' ability to convert AI adoption into sustainable growth and attractive returns.

Oppenheimer sees the strongest setup among system-of-record vendors and businesses with seat-plus-consumption pricing models, which combine defensible customer relationships with direct exposure to rising AI usage. Companies such as Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE: CRM), and ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) have already built $1 billion-plus AI businesses, while Workday (NASDAQ: WDAY) sees strong AI attach rates.

The firm's top picks include Microsoft, citing accelerating platform demand, disciplined capital allocation, and unmatched distribution across a massive installed base. ServiceNow combines best-in-class growth and cash flow generation at scale with compelling medium-term targets and exposure to durable automation and security tailwinds, while Braze (NASDAQ: BRZE) offers one of the most attractive risk-reward profiles as a system-of-record for customer engagement and profitable growth.

Oppenheimer recommends avoiding Figma, noting that while execution remains strong, growth may moderate as pricing actions fade and premium multiples mean upside relies on sustaining outperformance. The firm also flags SoundHound AI (NASDAQ: SOUN), citing unclear profitability inflection amid maturing and competitive end markets, reliance on M&A to support guidance, and elevated stock-based compensation.

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