UAE’s post-OPEC oil output to surpass 5 million bpd in 2027, IEA says

Investing.com -- The United Arab Emirates is projected to produce more than 5 million barrels per day of oil next year as the country expands production following its departure from OPEC, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

Total UAE oil output is expected to reach 5.2 million barrels per day in 2027, representing an increase of 730,000 bpd from the previous year, according to the IEA. The production growth positions the UAE as a significant contributor to non-OPEC+ supply expansion.

The UAE announced its exit from OPEC earlier this year, stating the move would allow the country to prioritize production capacity expansion and maximize resource value without the limitations of the group's output quotas.

The country's crude capacity has grown from 3.1 million bpd in 2016 to nearly 4.4 million bpd by 2026, along with approximately 1.1 million bpd of condensate and natural gas liquids capacity, the IEA reported.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said last month it will allocate 200 billion dirhams ($55 billion) to projects between 2026 and 2028 to support growth objectives and execute its strategy. The company plans $150 billion in capital investments from 2026 through 2030.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei earlier told Reuters the country could increase oil capacity to as much as 6 million bpd if market conditions warrant, though he noted this is not an official target.

UAE exports have maintained stability despite disruptions from the Iran conflict, supported by infrastructure including the 1.8 million bpd Habshan-Fujairah pipeline and 42 million barrels of storage capacity at Fujairah, the IEA said.

Total exports rose 260,000 bpd month-on-month in May to 3.1 million bpd, while crude output reached 2.8 million bpd, remaining about 835,000 bpd below pre-conflict levels, the agency reported.

The export increase was partly due to a rise in dark activity, with tankers making more journeys along the Omani coastline with their transponders turned off, the IEA said.

ADNOC is accelerating construction of a new West-East pipeline to double Fujairah export capacity and bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The project is approximately 50% complete with delivery scheduled for 2027.

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