J.P. Morgan projects 7.0% return for 60/40 portfolio over 10-15 years

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Go back to J.P. Morgan projects 7.0% return for 60/40 portfolio over 10-15 years

J.P. Morgan Releases 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Projecting 7.0% Return for 60/40 Portfolio Over 10-15 Years

October 19, 2026 12:00 PM EDT

Greater artificial intelligence (AI)-driven productivity, higher corporate profits and bond yields drives long-term growth outlook

A balanced portfolio with a 30% alternatives allocation can increase returns up to 7.5%, and boost Sharpe ratios by 21% when compared with a simple 60/40 approach. Higher real yields drive global aggregate bond forecasts to 5.3%, the highest in two decades. Resilient profits increase U.S. large cap equity forecasts by 80bps, leading to developed markets return forecasts overtaking emerging markets.... More