Cit Lowers Easing Expectation to 25bps by Fed Next Week, Sees 50bps in Nov and 50bps in Dec, Total Cuts by Y/E of 125bps
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CME FedWatch Shows 63% Probability Bet on 50bps Cut, 37% for 25bps at Sept 18 Fed Meeting
September 16, 2024 7:56 AM EDTCME FedWatch Shows 67% Probability Bet on 50bps Cut, 37% for 25bps at Sept 18 Fed Meeting
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html... MoreWells Fargo Sees 25bps Easing by Fed next Week, 'we now expect the committee to launch this easing cycle with a tamer 25 bps cut'
September 13, 2024 3:50 PM EDTWells Fargo Sees 25bps Easing by Fed next Week
The analyst comments "Last weeks employment report offered a little bit of something for both doves and hawks speculating on the outcome of next weeks Fed meeting. An acceleration in hiring in August coupled with downward revisions to prior data left the door open to either a 25... More
Evercore Sees 'Real Shot' of 50bps Easing by Fed Next Week, 'We believe a “dovish 25” does not really exist'
September 13, 2024 3:45 PM EDTSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY)
The analyst comments "We reaffirm that we see a real shot of a Fed 50bp cut in September, and while we carefully assess that we still do not have the evidence to go clearly odds-on, our gut instinct is it may well be heading that way, and we are alert to unfolding dynamics that could move 50bp more clearly odds-on in the period ahead. Already market action post Timiraos WSJ / Smith FT through time of writing (3.30pm ET Friday) makes 50 incrementally more likely,... More
BofA Still Sees 25bps Easing by Fed Next Week
September 13, 2024 3:39 PM EDTBofA Still Sees 25bps Easing by Fed Next Week.
The analyst comments "Next week, the Fed is widely expected to end the longest hold after a hiking cycle in its history. We look for the Fed to cut rates by 25bp, which should kick off a series of... More
JPMorgan Sees 50bps Easing by Fed Next Week
September 13, 2024 3:36 PM EDTJPMorgan Sees 50bps Easing by Fed Next Week.
The analyst comments "We believe what the Fed should do next week is clear: recalibrate the policy rate 50bp lower to adjust for the shifting balance of risks. What the FOMC will do is less clear, but were sticking... More
Goldman Sachs Still Sees 25bps Easing by Fed Next Week, Sees 25bps in Nov and 25bps in Dec, Total Cuts by Y/E of 75bps
September 13, 2024 3:34 PM EDTGoldman Sachs Still See 25bps Easing by Fed Next Week, Sees 25bps in Nov and 25bps in Dec, Total Cuts by Y/E of 75bps
The analyst comments "Jan Hatzius reiterates our view that the US labor market is slowing but not lurching towards recession in a fresh Global... More
AAII sentiment survey: pessimism rises
September 13, 2024 10:41 AM EDTPessimism among individual investors has risen, according to the latest survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
Bearish sentiment, which reflects expectations that stock prices will decline over the next six months, is said to have jumped by 6.0 percentage points to 31.0%.
According to the AAII, the increase brings bearish sentiment in line with its... More
U of M 1 Yr Inflation (Sep P) 2.7% vs 2.8% Expected, 5-10 yr 3.1% vs 3%
September 13, 2024 10:00 AM EDTU of M 1 Yr Inflation (Sep P) 2.7% vs 2.8% Expected, 5-10 yr 3.1% vs 3%
... MoreU of M Sentiment (Sep P ) 69 vs 68.5 Expected
September 13, 2024 10:00 AM EDTU of M Sentiment (Sep P ) 69 vs 68.5 Expected
... MoreTraders Price In 40% Chance Of Half-point Fed Cut Next Week - Bloomberg
September 13, 2024 9:07 AM EDTTraders Price In 40% Chance Of Half-point Fed Cut Next Week - Bloomberg
... MoreImport Price Index (Aug MoM) -0.3% vs -0.2% Expected
September 13, 2024 8:30 AM EDTImport Price Index (Aug MoM) -0.3% vs -0.2% Expected
... MoreWall Street advances as traders' bets rise for bigger Fed rate cut
September 13, 2024 6:11 AM EDTBy Sinéad Carew and Shashwat Chauhan
(Reuters) -Wall Street's main indexes closed higher on Friday as investors honed in on the chance of a bigger interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with rate-sensitive small cap stocks outperforming.
Bets on the size of the Fed's cut have been volatile and were roughly even by late Friday. Expectations for a 50 basis point cut jumped to 49% from 28% on Thursday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool, which showed a 51% probability for a 25 basis point cut.
Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said late Thursday... More
Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket
September 13, 2024 5:31 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $69.50, natural gas mixed, gold at $2596
... MoreThe former NY Fed chief Dudley sees a strong case for a 50bp rate cut - report
September 13, 2024 3:28 AM EDTInvesting.com -- Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley expressed support for a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in thwas a strong case, Reuters reported on Friday.
Speaking at the Bretton Woods Committees annual Future of Finance Forum in Singapore, Dudley said,... More
Fed faces dilemma over 25 or 50 bps cut in Sept, WSJ’s Timiraos says
September 13, 2024 3:03 AM EDTInvesting.com-- The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma over cutting interest rates when it meets next week, the Wall Street Journals Nick Timiraos said, as the decision comes amid a cooling labor market and recent signs of sticky inflation.Â
The central bank is set to meet next week, with markets split between a 25 or 50 basis point cut. Some sticky inflation data released this week favored the prospect of a smaller, 25 bps cut, CME Fedwatch shows.
But Timiraos... More
Deutsche Bank raises S&P 500 year-end target to 5,750 from 5,500
September 13, 2024 2:35 AM EDT(Reuters) - Deutsche Bank has raised its year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 index to 5,750 points from 5,500, citing rising stock buybacks, strong corporate earnings and robust inflows, boosted by strong risk appetite.
"We see S&P 500 earnings growth continuing to run robustly in the low double digits, in line with typical growth rates outside of recessions," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note on Sept. 12.
The new target represents a 2.75% upside to S&P's close of 5,595.76 on Thursday.
... MoreStrong case for 50 bp Fed cut, says former NY Fed chief Dudley
September 12, 2024 10:54 PM EDTSINGAPORE (Reuters) - Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley said there was a strong case for a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the United States.
"I think there's a strong case for 50, whether they're going to do it or not," he said at the Bretton Woods... More
Fed could conclude that if they expect a 50-basis-point move is likely in November or December, they ought to make that move now - WSJ (earlier)
September 12, 2024 3:25 PM EDTFed could conclude that if they expect a 50-basis-point move is likely in November or December, they should move now - WSJ (earlier)
The Fed normally prefers to move in increments of 0.25 point, or 25 basis points, because smaller adjustments give them more time to study the effect... MoreTrump Says There Will Not Be Another Debate With Kamala Harris
September 12, 2024 3:11 PM EDT(Updated - September 12, 2024 3:13 PM EDT)
Trump Says There Will Not Be Another Debate With Kamala Harris
Trump said on Truth Social. "When a prizefighter loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, I WANT A REMATCH. Polls clearly show that I won the Debate against... More
The best stocks to hold for 12 months as per Morgan Stanley
September 12, 2024 2:00 PM EDTMorgan Stanley released its 15th annual edition of Vintage Values, featuring the top stocks to hold for a one-year buy-and-hold investment horizon.
The bank explains that the list is the result of a combination of analysts' fundamental views and quantitative analysis, carefully selected by Morgan Stanley's Stock Selection Committee (SSC).
This year, the SSC considered factors such as macro exposure, industry positioning, valuation, and risk-reward profile for each stock.
The list... More
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 47% to 42% following the debate - Reuters/Ipsos poll
September 12, 2024 1:10 PM EDT(Updated - September 12, 2024 1:11 PM EDT)
Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 47% to 42% following the debate - Reuters/Ipsos poll
The latest poll showed Harris get a five percentage point lead among registered voters, above the four-point advantage she had over Trump in an Aug. 21-28... More
PPI Final Demand (Aug) 0.2% vs 0.1% Expected; Ex-Food and Energy 0.3% vs 0.2%
September 12, 2024 8:30 AM EDTPPI Final Demand (Aug) 0.2% vs 0.1% Expected; Ex-Food and Energy 0.3% vs 0.2%
... MoreInitial Jobless Claims 230K vs 227K Expected
September 12, 2024 8:30 AM EDTInitial Jobless Claims 230K vs 227K Expected
... MoreOnce the major growth driver, China is now a big headache for Western carmakers
September 12, 2024 7:06 AM EDTFor a significant amount of time, China was a critical growth engine for Western automakers, providing substantial demand and profit.
However, this trend is now reversing, creating major challenges for companies that once thrived in the market, according to a note from Morgan. Stanley on Thursday.
"China's two-decade run as a source of incremental demand and profit is moving the other way," the bank stated in a... More
Wall Street indexes close up; data keeps smaller Fed rate cut in view
September 12, 2024 6:12 AM EDTBy Sinéad Carew and Shashwat Chauhan
(Reuters) -Wall Street's main indexes closed higher on Thursday after the latest inflation data reinforced expectations for a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while Moderna's weak revenue forecast made it the S&P 500's biggest percentage loser.
The producer price index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.2% in August, compared with estimates for 0.1% growth. The core number, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, higher than the 0.2% forecast.
Separately, initial claims for state unemployment benefits stood at 230,000 for the week ended Sept. 7, in line with estimates.
... MoreGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket
September 12, 2024 4:51 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei up 3.4%, DAX up 1%, WTI Crude oil recently at $68, natural gas mixed, gold at $2545
... MoreAggressive Fed rate cut next week could backfire, putting big tech in crosshairs
September 12, 2024 2:25 AM EDTInvesting.com -- If the Federal Reserve cuts aggressively next week at a time when economic growth appears to be intact, then it could backfire, spooking rather than supporting the market, BCA Research said in a recent note.
A bigger rate cut just as economic growth appears to be on a stable footing, would spark speculation about the economy, BCA said, but a "much more important reason why aggressive dovishness would backfire ... is the yen carry trade."
The yen carry... More
U.S. stocks higher at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.31%
September 11, 2024 4:52 PM EDTInvesting.com U.S. stocks were higher after the close on Wednesday, as gains in the Technology, Consumer Services and Basic Materials sectors led shares higher.
At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.31%, while the S&P 500 index gained 1.07%, and the NASDAQ Composite index gained 2.15%.
The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were American Express Company (NYSE: AXP), which rose 3.57% or 8.76 points to trade at 254.18 at the close.... More
Blackstone's CFO says the Aug CPI was more like 1.7%, instead of 2.5%: Vital Knowledge
September 11, 2024 2:40 PM EDTVital Knowledge analysts: "Blackstones CFO, Michael Chae, spoke at the Barclays conf. this morning, and his macro tone was very supportive of a soft landing scenario. Chae noted that if the shelter component of this mornings CPI was updated to reflect current rent conditions, the CPI would be more... More
Fed IG says Atlanta Fed's Bostic violated rules on trading, created appearance of a conflict of interest
September 11, 2024 2:03 PM EDT(Updated - September 11, 2024 2:06 PM EDT)
Fed IG says Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic violated rules on trading.
Says Bostic violated Fed rules on trading.Says Bostic created appearance of acting on confidential information.Says Bostic created appearance of a conflict of interest.Didn't find evidence Bostic traded on confidential info.
... More
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Retraces Loss, Trades Unchanged Now
September 11, 2024 1:15 PM EDTSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) Retraces Loss, Trades Unchanged Now
... MoreGoldman Sachs CEO David Solomon: I Could See Them Cutting by 50 bps Given Softening
September 11, 2024 12:47 PM EDT(Updated - September 11, 2024 12:48 PM EDT)
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) CEO David Solomon on the possibility of rate cuts in the US: I could see them cutting by 50 bps given softening.
... MoreWells Fargo: 'Probably a 25 bps Rate Cut Next Week'
September 11, 2024 10:19 AM EDTWells Fargo economists on the Fed's next move after today's CPI data: "Inflation in August came in roughly in line with expectations, rising 0.2% in the month and 2.5% over the past year according to the Consumer Price Index. Excluding food and energy, Core CPI picked up in August, increasing 0.3% after a... More
Citi now sees Fed cutting by 25bps in September, followed by 50 bps cuts in Nov and Dec
September 11, 2024 9:32 AM EDTCiti economists on the Fed's next move after today's inflation report: "0.281%MoM core CPI inflation in June and a surprisingly strong 0.50%MoM advance in owners equivalent rent (OER) is probably just enough to convince the FOMC to cut 25bp rather than 50bp at next weeks meeting. The overall... More
The Fed is passively tightening by doing nothing: Vital Knolwedge
September 11, 2024 9:16 AM EDTVital Knowledge: "Investors will dial back expectations for a 50bp cut next week and the knee-jerk reaction in stocks and bonds will be to the downside, but we dont think this inflation report will dramatically shift the Feds mindset and even if they start small on 9/18 (25bp instead of... More
Inflation appears to have been successfully tamed but not completely vanquished: Capitol Economics
September 11, 2024 9:11 AM EDTCapitol Economics analysts on today's CPI print. They said: "Overall, inflation appears to have been successfully tamed but, with housing inflation still refusing to moderate as quickly as hoped, it hasnt been completely vanquished. Under those circumstances, we expect the Fed to take a measured approach to cutting interest... More
Oppenheimer sees more favorable setup for consumer staples stocks
September 11, 2024 9:06 AM EDTOppenheimer analysts see a more favorable setup for consumer staples stocks as the market anticipates Federal Reserve rate cuts.
"Fed easing has historically been a positive for consumer staples stocks and the group has generally outperformed during periods of falling 10-year Treasury yields," wrote Oppenheimer.
Their analysis shows that during past periods of Fed rate cuts, consumer staples stocks outperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 32... More
Small Aug CPI rise seen sealing 25 bp cut next week
September 11, 2024 8:53 AM EDT(Reuters) -U.S. consumer prices rose marginally in August, but underlying inflation showed some stickiness, which could discourage the Federal Reserve from delivering a half-point interest rate cut next week.
The consumer price index increased 0.2% last month after climbing 0.2% in July, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through August, the CPI advanced 2.5%. That was the smallest year-on-year rise since February 2021 and followed a 2.9% increase in July.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.2% and rising 2.6% year-on-year. Though inflation remains above the U.S. central bank's 2% target, it has slowed considerably.
MARKET... More
Fed expected to deliver quarter-percentage-point rate cut next week
September 11, 2024 8:43 AM EDTBy Ann Saphir
(Reuters) -U.S. central bankers will likely start long-awaited interest rate cuts next week with a quarter-of-a-percentage-point reduction, as they seek to reduce the odds of a recession even as stubbornly intact underlying price pressures put them off more aggressive action.
Traders now see less than a one-in-five chance of a half-percentage-point rate cut at the Fed's Sept. 17-18 policy meeting. That is down from a better-than one-in-four chance before the release of data on Wednesday that showed the consumer price index rose 2.5% in August from a year earlier, down from July's 2.9% increase.
... MoreTraders Shred Bets On Jumbo Fed Rate Cut In September - Bloomberg
September 11, 2024 8:35 AM EDTTraders Shred Bets On Jumbo Fed Rate Cut In September - Bloomberg
... MoreCPI (Aug YoY) 2.5% vs 2.5% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 3.2% vs 3.2%
September 11, 2024 8:30 AM EDTCPI (Aug YoY) 2.5% vs 2.5% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 3.2% vs 3.2%
... MoreCPI (Aug MoM) 0.2% vs 0.2% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 0.3% vs 0.2%
September 11, 2024 8:30 AM EDTCPI (Aug MoM) 0.2% vs 0.2% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 0.3% vs 0.2%
... MoreMBA Mortgage Applications 1.4% vs 1.6% Prior
September 11, 2024 7:00 AM EDTMBA Mortgage Applications 1.4% vs 1.6% Prior
... MoreWall Street closes up on tech boost; inflation data dents hopes for big Fed rate cut
September 11, 2024 5:57 AM EDTBy Sinéad Carew and Shashwat Chauhan
(Reuters) -All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday with a boost from the technology sector offsetting investor disappointment at an early morning inflation report, which crushed hopes the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week.
The S&P 500 technology index finished up 3.3% after opening lower with a big boost from AI chipmaker Nvidia, which added 8%. It was helped by a Semafor report that the U.S. government is considering letting Nvidia export advanced chips to Saudi Arabia.
Political developments also drove... More
Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket
September 11, 2024 3:58 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei down 1.4%, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $67, natural gas mixed, gold at $2552
... More