Fed's Daly: Time to Adjust Policy is Upon Us, Hard To Imagine Anything Could Derail Sept Rate Cut
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Be careful with stocks and bonds as dollar could bounce here: BTIG
August 26, 2024 12:43 PM EDTInvestors should exercise caution with stocks and bonds as the U.S. dollar shows potential for a bounce, according to a recent note from BTIG.
Despite the initial market enthusiasm following Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole, BTIG suggests that the rally may not have much further to run.
The firm notes that while the market is trending higher, there is... More
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -9.7 vs -16.3 Expected
August 26, 2024 10:30 AM EDTDallas Fed Manf. Activity -9.7 vs -16.3 Expected
... MoreNasdaq Falls Ahead of NVIDIA (NVDA) Results Wednesday, Down 0.8%
August 26, 2024 10:21 AM EDTNasdaq Falls Ahead of NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) Results Wednesday, Down 0.8%
NVDA -1.8%NVIDIA will host a conference call on Wednesday, August 28, at 2 p.m. PT (5 p.m. ET) to discuss its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, which ended July 28, 2024.... MoreDurable Goods (Jul P) 9.9% vs 5% Expected, Ex-Trans -0.2% vs -0.1%
August 26, 2024 8:30 AM EDTDurable Goods (Jul P) 9.9% vs 5% Expected, Ex-Trans -0.2% vs -0.1%
... MoreDow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: Nvidia earnings to take center stage
August 26, 2024 7:34 AM EDTU.S. stocks climbed on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that interest rate cuts are on the horizon.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 462.30 points, or 1.14%, reaching 41,175.08. The Nasdaq Composite saw a 1.47% increase, closing at 17,877.79, while the S&P 500 gained 1.15%, ending the day at 5,634.61just shy of the all-time highs reached last month.
Fridays performance also capped off a winning week for all three major indexes. The Dow advanced nearly 1.3%, the Nasdaq gained 1.4%, and the S&P 500 climbed 1.45%.
The markets received a boost Friday morning following Powells remarks... More
S&P 500 ends lower, weighed down by Nvidia dip
August 26, 2024 6:16 AM EDTBy Johann M Cherian and Noel Randewich
(Reuters) -The S&P 500 finished lower on Monday, with AI heavyweight Nvidia dipping ahead of its quarterly report this week, while investors awaited inflation data for clues about the path of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq also declined, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average was supported by gains of about 1% each in Caterpillar and American Express and finished just slightly up.
Nvidia dropped 2.25% ahead of its report on Wednesday in what is set to be the U.S. stock market's most closely watched event of the week.
... MoreGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket
August 26, 2024 6:14 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $75.50, natural gas down 3.5%, gold at $2560
... MoreWith Fed's shift to job market risks done, policy now has to catch up
August 26, 2024 6:12 AM EDTBy Howard Schneider
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) -In 2022, when the Federal Reserve's focus shifted to combating inflation, it had to ratchet up interest rates fast to get monetary policy caught up with fast-rising prices.
Two years later, the focus has changed again - this time to protecting the job market, as outlined in Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday at the U.S. central bank's annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming. A policy catch-up again appears to be needed - in the other direction, albeit at a likely less frantic speed.
Powell's signal of... More
Global equity markets boosted by prospect of Fed cuts, healthy earnings
August 26, 2024 5:08 AM EDTGlobal equities rallied last week, driven by growing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, even as manufacturing data showed signs of weakening.
The MSCI AC World Index, the global equity benchmark that tracks the performance of stocks across both developed and emerging markets, gained 1.7% during the week, according to Bank of Americas Monday report. Year-to-date, global equities are now up 14.4%.
Europe and Japan were the top-performing regions last week, with gains of 3.0% and 2.1%, respectively,... More
Did Powell just pour gasoline on stock market's fire?
August 26, 2024 4:47 AM EDTInvesting.com -- Jerome Powells recent speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has ignited a response in financial markets, and many analysts believe that his dovish tone could fuel further gains in an already hot stock market.Â
The Federal Reserve Chairs remarks seemed to confirm widespread expectations of a forthcoming rate cut, which could have broad implications for both equities and the broader economy.
Powells speech was interpreted by many as dovish, signaling the Feds readiness to lower interest rates in the near term.Â
It was... More
Powell’s latest pivot won’t be his last
August 26, 2024 4:47 AM EDTFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on Friday marked a significant dovish shift in the central banks stance on monetary policy.
Powell signaled that the Fed is now prepared to lower interest rates, aligning with market expectations for a series of rate cuts. His remarks suggest that the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment is increasingly skewed towards supporting the labor market, even as inflation trends towards the Fed's 2% target.
During the speech, Powell did not push back against market expectations of multiple rate... More
Mutual fund performance has weakened YTD, hedge funds remain solid: Goldman Sachs
August 26, 2024 4:21 AM EDTMutual fund performance has declined over the year, while hedge funds have continued to perform well, Goldman Sachs revealed in a recent report.
Specifically, 34% of large-cap mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks year-to-date, marking a decrease from 50% in May and below the historical average of 38%.
Among different styles, large-cap value funds have been the strongest performers this year, with 45% of managers beating the Russell 1000 Value index. On the other hand, large-cap core funds have struggled the most, with only 25% surpassing the S&P 500.
According to estimates from Goldman Sachs Prime Services, US equity fundamental long/short... More
UBS explains why you should invest in family businesses
August 24, 2024 8:00 PM EDTPublicly listed firms understandably attract a great deal of attention from market participants, and the number of retail investors in particular who invest in the stock market has shot up significantly in recent years. Meanwhile, an oft-overlooked avenue family businesses deserves greater attention, according to analysts at UBS.
A staggering two-thirds of businesses around the world are family businesses, and they generate 70% of world GDP, while accounting for 50% to 80% of jobs in... More
This is how to shape your portfolio when volatility is on the up
August 24, 2024 6:00 AM EDTGlobal equities witnessed a surge in volatility in recent weeks, forcing investors to rethink their strategies and prepare for more sharp market movements.
According to Piper Sandler's latest research, a key consideration during periods of increased market turbulence is how best to structure your investments to balance returns and risk.
Recent weeks have seen notable fluctuations, with the S&P 500 experiencing daily swings of over 1%, with some days reaching 2% or even 3%. This heightened volatility coincides with changing investor sentiment, as optimism around softening inflation battles with concerns over weakening employment.
Given this environment, many investors... More
Does higher growth boost long-term equity returns?
August 24, 2024 5:00 AM EDTLong-term investors who incorporate macro factors and forecasts into their decision-making would be interested to learn the findings of J.P. Morgans report published Thursday on whether economic growth leads to higher equity returns.
Intuitively, that there should be a correlation seems obvious, given higher GDP growth should lead to higher earnings growth which should in turn result in higher equity returns.
However, J.P. Morgans study finds that this is true only of developed markets, not emerging markets. In developed markets, the analysts find that a 1% increase in economic growth is associated with around 3% higher... More
How to use a diversified portfolio to navigate bouts of market volatility
August 24, 2024 5:00 AM EDTThe recent sharp in volatility, as evidenced by the recent spike in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), is a reminder that market fluctuations are an inherent part of investing, Wells Fargo strategists noted in a recent report.
However, the investment bank advises against reacting hastily to these fluctuations by reducing equity exposure, stressing the importance of sticking to a well-diversified asset allocation.
In a nutshell, strategists argue that volatility should not drive investors to exit the market or attempt to time it.
They highlight that volatility is not solely associated with downturns; sharp upswings can... More
Markets will remain range bound until November elections: Wells Fargo
August 24, 2024 4:26 AM EDTWells Fargo analysts believe the U.S. stock market will likely remain range-bound until the November elections.
The S&P 500 Index, which recently dropped 9.7% from its July peak to its August low, is now caught between key support and resistance levels, according to the bank.
Wells Fargo describes this as "no mans land," with the index stuck between support at the 200-day moving average (5,044) and resistance at the 50-day moving average (5,452).
The recent market decline was driven by weak economic... More
Wall Street analysts react to Powell's dovish Jackson Hole speech
August 23, 2024 1:59 PM EDTFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium sparked varied reactions from Wall Street analysts, all noting a dovish tone and a potential shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy.
Evercore ISI described Powell's remarks as "bullish-dovish," highlighting his declaration that "the time has come for policy to adjust."
Powell emphasized the Fed's commitment to doing "everything we can to support a strong labor market"... More
Fed's Goolsbee: Everything We Wanted to Happen to Get Rates Down has Happened, Inflation is on Path to 2%
August 23, 2024 12:43 PM EDTFed's Goolsbee: Everything We Wanted to Happen to Get Rates Down has Happened, Inflation is on Path to 2%
... MoreFed is open to 50s: Evercore ISI
August 23, 2024 12:27 PM EDTEvercore ISI strategists weigh in on Powell's speech at Jackson Hole:"As anticipated, Powell did not give any specific steer on 25 vs 50bp. Instead, he said the direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. His discussion is consistent with a base case of a string of 25bp moves.... More
Fed will cut by 25bp per quarter, starting in September: BofA
August 23, 2024 12:20 PM EDTBofA economists on Powell's speech: "In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Powell sealed the deal for a September rate cut. Fed Chairs don't usually front-run the committee at Jackson Hole, but in this case the July minutes, released on Wednesday, had already said that a "vast majority" of committee members would likely support a September cut. Powell emphasized that the Fed continued to shift its focus from inflation to the labor market mandate: "The upside risks to inflation... More
Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole: 'Time has come for policy to adjust'
August 23, 2024 11:37 AM EDT
Powell: My confidence has grown that inflation is on the path to 2%
Powell: We don't seek or welcome further labor market cooling
Powell: "The time has come for policy to adjust"
"The timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data," says Powell
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a pivotal speech on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming,... More
S&P 500 Pares Gain Following Powell Speech, Hits Intraday Low
August 23, 2024 10:49 AM EDTS&P 500 Pares Gain Following Powell Speech, Hits Intraday Low
... MorePowell green lights September rate cut
August 23, 2024 10:39 AM EDT(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday "the time has come" for the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates as rising risks to the job market left no room for further weakness and inflation was in reach of the Fed's 2% target, offering an explicit endorsement of an imminent policy easing.
"The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased," Powell said in a highly anticipated speech to the Kansas City Fed's annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "The time has come for policy to adjust. The... More
US job market may be near tipping point, research shows
August 23, 2024 10:36 AM EDTBy Howard Schneider
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) - As inflation fell fast in 2023 and continued to slow this year, Federal Reserve officials were cheered that the steam seemed to come out of the U.S. economy not through rising unemployment but rather a decline in the large number of job openings businesses posted during the peak of the pandemic-era labor shortage.
But the economy may now be near a tipping point where a continued drop in job openings will translate into faster increases in unemployment, an argument in favor of the Fed beginning to cut interest... More
Risk assets gain as Powell says "The time has come for policy to adjust"
August 23, 2024 10:13 AM EDTRisk assets gain as Powell says, "The time has come for policy to adjust."
stocks higher +1.2%bitcoin higher +2%gold higher +1.3%WTI crude +2.1%yields lower -1.4%... MoreKey quotes from Powell's speech at Fed's Jackson Hole conference
August 23, 2024 10:06 AM EDT(Reuters) - Here are key quotes from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday to the Kansas City Fed's annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming:
POLICY: "The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of... More
Fed Swaps Steady, Price In Nearly 100Bp Of Easing By Year-end - Bloomberg
August 23, 2024 10:04 AM EDTFed Swaps Steady, Price In Nearly 100Bp Of Easing By Year-end - Bloomberg
... MoreFed's Powell: 'The Time Has Come For Policy To Adjust'
August 23, 2024 10:00 AM EDT(Updated - August 23, 2024 10:01 AM EDT)
Review and Outlook
Chair Jerome H. Powell
At Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy, an economic symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
Four and a half years after COVID-19's arrival, the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading. Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our... More
New Home Sales (Jul) 739K vs 623K Expected
August 23, 2024 10:00 AM EDTNew Home Sales (Jul) 739K vs 623K Expected
... MoreBostic Lists Range Of Potential Fed Decisions From No-cut To 50
August 23, 2024 9:12 AM EDTBostic Lists Range Of Potential Fed Decisions From No-cut To 50
... MoreBostic: Payroll Revision Didn't Really Change Jobs View Much
August 23, 2024 8:46 AM EDTBostic: Payroll Revision Didn't Really Change Jobs View Much
... MoreBostic: You Can't Ignore The Data, Takes Us Closer To Moving
August 23, 2024 8:41 AM EDT(Updated - August 23, 2024 8:45 AM EDT)
(Updated - August 23, 2024 8:43 AM EDT)
Bostic Says 'We're Close' When Asked On Starting To Normalize
Bostic Says Inflation Dashboard Is 'Still Flashing Red'Bostic: You Can't Ignore The Data, Takes Us Closer To Moving... MoreS&P 500 bull trend remains intact: StockTrader's Almanac
August 23, 2024 8:05 AM EDTDespite the seasonal volatility and uncertainties surrounding the economy, the S&P 500's bull trend remains intact, according to the latest insights from Stock Trader's Almanac.
The note highlights that while the market has faced some turbulence, especially towards the end of August, the broader trend continues to show resilience.
The recent market action reflects a "textbook election... More
Nvidia earnings seen as more important than Powell's Jackson Hole speech: Barclays
August 23, 2024 6:31 AM EDTAs markets eagerly anticipate Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)'s upcoming earnings report, Barclays analysts warn that it could serve as a "reality check" for the broader market, particularly in the tech sector.
In a client research note, the bank highlights the significance of Nvidia's earnings, set for release next week, in maintaining the momentum behind the AI and tech investment narrative that has dominated... More
Nvidia earnings seen as more important than Powell's Jackson Hole speech: Barclays
August 23, 2024 6:31 AM EDTAs markets eagerly anticipate Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)'s upcoming earnings report, Barclays analysts warn that it could serve as a "reality check" for the broader market, particularly in the tech sector.
In a client research note, the bank highlights the significance of Nvidia's earnings, set for release next week, in maintaining the momentum behind the AI and tech investment narrative that has dominated... More
Wall Street ends sharply higher as Powell cements September rate cut hopes
August 23, 2024 5:38 AM EDTBy Stephen Culp
NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks rallied on Friday as dovish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell solidified expectations that the central bank will cut its key policy rate in September.
In highly anticipated comments before the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Powell said "the time has come" to lower the Fed funds target rate, and "the upside risks of inflation have diminished."
"We do not see or welcome further weakening in labor market conditions," Powell added in a speech that appeared to all but guarantee a rate cut at next... More
Rate cuts are ‘not a likely spark for equity buying', BofA says
August 23, 2024 5:20 AM EDTCash continued to dominate inflows last week, seeing significant allocations across all major asset classes, Bank of America revealed today's report. Cash inflows over the past three weeks reached a cumulative $145.3 billion, the largest since January.
During the week ending Aug. 21, money market funds drew $37 billion in inflows, equity funds attracted $20.4 billion, while bond funds saw $15.1 billion.
At the same time, gold had its largest inflow in four weeks at $1.1 billion, and cryptocurrencies captured $200 million.
U.S. equities witnessed their biggest inflow in five weeks, totaling $12.6 billion... More
Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket
August 23, 2024 5:11 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $73.50, natural gas mixed, gold at $2534
... MoreJackson Hole, US futures, Harris's nomination - what's moving markets
August 23, 2024 5:08 AM EDTInvesting.com -- Wall Street is seen trading in tight ranges Thursday ahead of more labor macro data, a speech by Vice President Kamala Harris and, perhaps more importantly, the start of the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.Â
1. Powell speech to shape markets stance
All eyes are focused on Wyoming's Grand Teton National Park on Friday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to deliver a speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium that will likely shape the markets view of upcoming monetary policy and the... More
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) option IV increases into Jackson Hole speech
August 23, 2024 4:55 AM EDTSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) 30-day option implied volatility is at 14; compared to its 52-week range of 10 to 29 into Jerome Powell speech in Jackson Hole.
... MoreFed's Harker ready to start rate cut process - Reuters
August 22, 2024 10:20 AM EDTIn an interview with Reuters on Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker expressed his support for a potential interest rate cut in September, provided the economic data aligns with his expectations.
Discussing the possibility of reducing the cost of short-term borrowing, Harker told the publication, "For me, barring any surprise... More
Existing Home Sales (Jul) 3.95M vs 3.94M Expected
August 22, 2024 10:00 AM EDTExisting Home Sales (Jul) 3.95M vs 3.94M Expected
... MoreHarker: I'm Not In Camp Of 25-bps Or 50-bps Cut, Need More Data
August 22, 2024 9:59 AM EDT(Updated - August 22, 2024 10:15 AM EDT)
Fed's Harker: On Board With September Cut If Data As Expected
Harker: I'm Not In Camp Of 25-bps Or 50-bps Cut, Need More Data... MoreS&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug P) 48 v 49.5 Expected
August 22, 2024 9:45 AM EDTS&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Aug P) 48 v 49.5 Expected
... MoreJackson Hole preview: ‘Sell the news' scenario is ‘less likely’
August 22, 2024 9:12 AM EDTFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday is expected to be the main event this week.
Economists at UBS said last week that Powell is likely to strongly indicate a September rate cut, however, they also expect him to emphasize a degree of data dependence, noting that inflation has not yet returned to target, nor is it guaranteed to do so despite forecasts.
A lot of progress has been made, we expect him to argue, but ongoing removal of monetary policy restrictiveness will depend on the ongoing progress of inflation toward 2%,... More
Jackson Hole preview: ‘Sell the news' scenario is ‘less likely’
August 22, 2024 9:00 AM EDTFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday is expected to be the main event this week.
Economists at UBS said last week that Powell is likely to strongly indicate a September rate cut, however, they also expect him to emphasize a degree of data dependence, noting that inflation has not yet returned to target, nor is it guaranteed to do so despite forecasts.
A lot of progress has been made, we expect him to argue, but ongoing removal of monetary policy restrictiveness will depend on the ongoing progress of inflation toward 2%, weighed... More
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Jul) -0.34% vs 0.03 Expected
August 22, 2024 8:30 AM EDTChicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Jul) -0.34% vs 0.03 Expected
... MoreInitial Jobless Claims 232K vs 232K Expected
August 22, 2024 8:30 AM EDTInitial Jobless Claims 232K vs 232K Expected
... MoreA 50bp rate cut in September remains base case scenario at Citi
August 22, 2024 6:35 AM EDTInvesting.com -- Citi analysts in a note dated Wednesday maintained that a 50 basis points (bp) rate cut at the upcoming September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting remains their base case scenario.Â
The July FOMC minutes provided the clearest indication yet that the Federal Reserve is leaning towards policy easing, with a "vast... More
Fed minutes, Jackson Hole and Harris speech - what's moving markets
August 22, 2024 6:34 AM EDTInvesting.com -- Wall Street is seen trading in tight ranges Thursday ahead of more labor macro data, a speech by Vice President Kamala Harris and, perhaps more importantly, the start of the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
1. Jackson Hole in focus
Central bankers are starting to gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, ahead of the start of the annual symposium.
Fed Chair Jerome Powells speech, on Friday, will be the highlight as investors look for clues over the central banks intentions next month regarding monetary... More
Markets bounced back, but hedge funds are fading the rally
August 22, 2024 6:34 AM EDTEquity markets staged an impressive rebound since the August 5 sell-off but it appears that hedge funds (HFs) are fading the ongoing rally, Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out in a recent report.
Stocks surged impressively over the past two weeks, driven by a combination of factors, including diminishing growth concerns, reduced recession risks, a sharp reversal in volatility, and a shift in flows from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) and rules-based funds, which have turned from a headwind to a tailwind.
In this context,... More
Markets will likely be choppy, volatile in coming months: Wells Fargo
August 22, 2024 6:00 AM EDTEquity markets will likely be choppy and volatile within a broader range in the coming months, according to Wells Fargo.
The equity market has seen a strong rebound since the lows on August 5, with investors quickly regaining confidence after the July employment report, which had initially caused concern due to falling far below consensus expectations.
Although the report sparked fears of a sharp economic slowdown and speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) was behind the curve on rate cuts, the data wasn't as dire as it seemed. Some financial commentators even called for an... More
Wall St ends lower as tech shares weigh; Jackson Hole in focus
August 22, 2024 5:36 AM EDTBy Stephen Culp
NEW YORK (Reuters) -All three major U.S. stock indexes lost ground on Thursday, weighed by technology shares, as Treasury yields rose on easing recession fears and global central bank officials convened at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
The so-called Magnificent Seven megacap growth stocks weighed heaviest on the tech-laden Nasdaq.
"There doesn't appear to be any kind of clear catalyst as to what's driving this sell-off," Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina.
"People may be trying to square positions a little bit ahead of Nvidia... More
Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket
August 22, 2024 5:18 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $72, natural gas mixed, gold at $2538
... More