Goldman Sachs leaves Q3 GDP estimate at 3.3% despite housing drop

Investing.com -- US housing starts dropped 5.2% to 1,221,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis in September, falling short of market expectations, according to Goldman Sachs.

The August housing starts figure was revised lower by 3.3 percentage points to -5.9%. Housing starts showed high volatility throughout the year, with monthly changes averaging 11.2% in either direction over the past six months.

Both single-family housing starts and multi-family housing starts declined during the month, falling 4.6% and 6.7% respectively.

Goldman Sachs said the September decline aligns with its outlook that increased housing supply, homebuilder margins returning to pre-pandemic levels, and softer demand due to higher mortgage rates will pressure single-family starts over the coming year.

Building permits decreased 0.2% to 1,400,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis in September from an upwardly revised August level. The August figure was revised up by 0.6 percentage points to -2.1%. The September permits figure came in slightly above consensus expectations.

The decline in permits stemmed from a 4.0% drop in single-family permits, which was largely offset by a 6.1% increase in multi-family permits.

Goldman Sachs maintained its third-quarter GDP tracking estimate at 3.3% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis.

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