Match Group shares jump as Evercore ISI upgrades stock on Tinder recovery

Investing.com -- Match Group Inc (NASDAQ: MTCH) shares advanced 3.4% Monday after Evercore ISI upgraded the online dating company to Outperform from In Line, with analyst Mark Mahaney citing third-party data that points to an accelerating operational recovery at flagship platform Tinder. Mahaney raised his price target on the stock to $53 from $39, noting that fundamental trends across the business are the best the firm has seen since 2021.

Data from intelligence firm Sensor Tower cited by the analyst indicated that Tinder turned the corner on monthly active user growth in September, marking its first positive year-over-year expansion since February 2022. While Mahaney cautioned that third-party panel metrics historically run ahead of company-reported figures, the analyst emphasized that consecutive quarters of positive global download trends signal a clear inflection point in user trajectory.

Beyond active user numbers, Evercore's proprietary survey work underscores substantial attitudinal shifts among younger demographics, particularly Gen Z daters. Mahaney highlighted that online dating app adoption among actively dating 18-to-29-year-olds expanded to 70% from 56% a year ago, closing what analysts noted had been a 20-point gap relative to older cohorts.

The operational progress prompted Evercore to raise its financial estimates, with analysts projecting Tinder's payer trajectory to turn positive well ahead of management’s fiscal 2027 plan. Analysts noted that stronger user monetization and expanding subscription adoption should lift full-year 2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA to $3.74 billion and $1.46 billion, respectively, putting the firm 3% above consensus expectations.

While Mahaney acknowledged potential headwinds from proposed Apple app store payment commissions, the analyst views the potential financial impact as manageable amid accelerating user acquisition. Against that backdrop, Evercore noted that the stock remains well-positioned for positive estimate revisions and further upward rerating as underlying growth rebounds.

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