Moody's Corp (MCO) PT Lowered to $560 at Jefferies

Jefferies analyst Surinder Thind lowered the price target on Moody's Corp (NYSE: MCO) to $560.00 (from $610.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "We expect 3Q results to meet or exceed expectations, but believe there is risk to the 4Q outlook on the potential for emerging weakness in the Ratings business. As a result, we expect mgmt to narrow its full-year guide, with the midpoint of revenue, margins, and earnings guidance now our baseline. Our 2026 revenue estimate is unchanged at +7.2% y/y, and we see the potential for Analytics to continue its strong ARR growth at or above 2Q levels of +8.6% y/y. Adjusting estimates. Our 3Q26 revenue estimate increases by $45M to $2,126M (+5.9% y/y) reflecting what we believe will be solid issuance during the quarter. We now expect MIS revenues to increase +7.8% y/y (previously +3.4%) despite rates rising throughout the quarter. We have also raised our Analytics growth estimate, but only modestly. We are modeling ARR to grow at +9.0% y/y, which would be a +40 bps acceleration from +8.6% y/y in 2Q. The collective impact of this is our 3Q adj EPS increases by $0.15 to $4.21, primarily due to the increase in high-margin MIS revenues. For full-year 2026, our revenue estimate of +7.2% y/y is unchanged as better than expected performance in 3Q will likely be offset by incremental weakness in 4Q."

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