Telenor placed on negative catalyst watch at JPM ahead of Q3 results

Investing.com -- JPMorgan placed Telenor on Negative Catalyst Watch ahead of third-quarter results, as the bank takes a broadly cautious view on Nordic telecoms heading into the quarter, with Finland and Norway screening as the most competitive markets.

Analyst Ajay Soni said Telenor sits 2% below consensus on EBITDA and 6% below on free cash flow. The bank expects continued competitive pressure in Norway and Finland, headwinds for Telenor’s Bangladesh unit from revenue and energy costs, and peak transformation costs in the quarter weighing on EBITDA. JPMorgan rates the stock Neutral with a price target of NOK 145, down from NOK 160.

Looking further out, JPMorgan flagged concerns that 2027 trends will be soft for Telenor, driven by ICE wholesale headwinds in Norway and the risk that the Norwegian market turns more competitive. Shareholder returns look attractive, with a projected 2027 total shareholder return yield of 13%, but JPMorgan analysts said "mid-term headwinds will continue to weigh on the shares."

Norway has historically been viewed as a disciplined three-player market supporting above-average Nordic margins, but Telenor has reiterated that competitive intensity increased in the second quarter, specifically citing aggressive Samsung handset promotions from Telia. This raises the risk that Telia’s aggressive commercial strategy in Finland during the second half of 2025 is spilling into Norway, the analysts said.

Finland "remains vulnerable" entering a competitive second half, the analysts said, with the three main operators priced within a €1-per-month range. Many 12-month fixed contracts signed during the competitive second half of 2025 are now coming up for renewal, and customers are likely to see a material price increase from the promotional rate, raising the risk the market turns competitive again.

Elsewhere, the bank said Elisa’s softer third quarter raises pressure on the company to deliver in the fourth quarter to meet full-year guidance, and kept the stock at Underweight.

Telia should be broadly in line for the quarter, though EBITDA growth is set to slow, with a potential buyback worth about 3% of market cap seen as a fourth-quarter catalyst. Tele2 also looks broadly in line, with improving trends and a possible 2026 dividend of SEK 12.5 per share, 14% above consensus. JPMorgan rates both Telia and Tele2 Overweight.

Original Article

You May Also Be Interested In

• TE Connectivity CEO to present at the Baird 2026 Global Industrials Conference
• Six Flags drops as Mizuho warns of balance sheet strains and cash flow deficits
• CSX surges on earnings beat, strong margin expansion