Analysts upgrade Marvell, lift price targets after AI-focused analyst day

Investing.com -- Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on Marvell Technology, and one upgraded the stock, after the chipmaker laid out a much bigger long-term revenue outlook at its Tuesday analyst day.

Marvell shares rose nearly 6%, against a 1% gain for the SOX semiconductor index, closing at $287.01.

Management raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion from $18 billion and introduced a fiscal 2031 framework of $70 billion to $90 billion, or $80 billion at the midpoint, roughly 10 times fiscal 2026 levels. It targets earnings above $30 per share and gross margins of 56% to 59%, and sized its 2030 addressable market at about $400 billion. It also lifted its fiscal 2029 custom revenue target to more than $12 billion from more than $10 billion.

TD Cowen upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $350 from $245. Analyst Sean O’Loughlin said the growth drivers have "fully shifted" to Marvell’s connectivity franchise, and that the concentration and margin risk tied to custom chips "has been largely de-risked." Custom accelerators are about 19% of the 2030 target, versus more than 40% of expectations last year.

He acknowledged that TD Cowen’s downgrade a year ago was "very wrong" about connectivity. O’Loughlin cautioned that the market is unlikely to give full credit to the targets, given many investors’ focus on risks in 2028 or earlier. Those include limited custom success at hyperscalers and a sharp slowdown in data center spending.

Separately, Jefferies raised its target on the stock to $ 450 from $325, calling $30 of 2030 earnings per share "conservative," with potential for $35 to $40 depending on mix. The $37.5 billion interconnect target for fiscal 2031 was "well ahead of expectations," it said.

B. Riley also raised its target to $365 from $315, noting the 2030 sales and earnings targets were 73% and 67% above consensus. The broker said the model rests on more than 100 active projects, none a disproportionate contributor. Risks include political resistance to data centers and supply constraints, though Marvell confirmed it has secured the supply it needs.

In another note, Stifel upped its target to $370 from $350, saying the targets are built bottom-up with "no single mega socket required." Its scenario analysis puts fiscal 2031 earnings between $24.30 and $40.59, with each $10 billion of revenue adding about $4 per share.

Broker Susquehanna raised its target to $340 from $265 and rates the stock Positive. Its analysts said opex should grow at half the pace of revenue through fiscal 2031, and that Marvell expects scale-up switching and optics to become multibillion-dollar businesses.

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