UBS says cigarette volumes fell in Spain and France in August

Investing.com -- Cigarette volumes in Spain dropped 5.2% in August 2026, according to data from Spain's Ministry of Finance and Public Service cited by UBS. The decline follows a 1.2% decrease in July and a 3.5% increase in June. Over the past three months, volumes fell 1.0%.

On a two-year compound annual growth rate basis, Spanish cigarette volumes were down 6.4% in August. Price and mix increased 3.2% during the month, which translates to approximately 5% at the manufacturer level due to no excise tax increase.

Imperial Brands saw its cigarette volumes in Spain fall 8.8% in August, with market share declining 93 basis points to 25.5%. The company's price and mix rose 4.4%. Philip Morris International's volumes decreased 6.6%, with share down 71 basis points to 27.0% and price mix up 3.6%.

Japan Tobacco's volumes fell 4.6%, with share up 6 basis points to 26.7% and price mix increasing 3.4%. British American Tobacco's volumes dropped 14.5%, with share down 104 basis points to 8.3% and price mix up 4.1%.

UBS noted that tobacco companies excluding Japan Tobacco are losing share to smaller players, with Imperial's share performance affected by higher-than-market price increases.

In France, combustible volumes fell 8.9% in August, according to French customs data. The two-year compound annual growth rate stood at negative 11.2%. Cigarette volumes declined 8.3%, while fine-cut volumes, which account for approximately 20% of total volumes, fell 11.1%.

French tobacco volumes have been affected by increased cross-border and illicit trade, as cigarette pack prices reached approximately €12 compared to around €5.50 in Spain. UBS noted that volumes have slightly improved this year.

UBS estimates Spain accounted for approximately 5% of Imperial's fiscal 2025 earnings before interest and tax, 3% for Japan Tobacco, 2% for Philip Morris International, and less than 1% for British American Tobacco. France accounted for 1-2% of fiscal 2025 EBIT for these companies.

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