Tesla Optimus sales revenue unlikely before 2029, Oppenheimer says

Investing.com -- Oppenheimer has cast doubt on the pace of Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot ramp, telling investors that meaningful sales revenue is unlikely before 2029.

Following a visit to Tesla's Austin operations, analyst Colin Rusch said in a note that the company pointed to finalizing the hardware design for Optimus's initial ramp, targeting first commercial revenue in late 2027.

But he was more cautious than the market. "We believe expectations for scale-up on humanoid revenue by the Street is overly optimistic," Rusch wrote.

"We anticipate limited revenue prior to 2029 as hardware and operating software complexity and supply chain preparedness limit production," he added, pushing his Optimus ramp assumptions out by two quarters.

Rusch, who rates Tesla at Perform, was more upbeat on other parts of the business. He said the Cybercab is ramping and driving manufacturing costs materially lower, with a modular design enabling parallel production and up to 40% mass reduction, and described Tesla's 50% to 60% robotaxi cost advantage as becoming a reality.

He also flagged Tesla's push into semiconductor manufacturing as "bold, but critically important," helping de-risk supply and optimize its highest-leverage component, with a pilot facility tracking toward a $25 billion-plus capital spending target.

Oppenheimer kept its 2026 revenue estimate at $105 billion but trimmed 2027 to $108.8 billion, reflecting the slower Optimus ramp offset by faster Cybercab production.

You May Also Be Interested In

• Europe's electric car sales jump 70% in September
• Tradeweb stock tumbles 11% on $1.97 billion Trumid deal
• Fintech Ramp applies for OCC trust bank charter to expand asset services