Kalshi leads prediction market with 76% share in NFL week 1

Investing.com -- Needham reported that prediction market volume on sports and parlays reached $14.6 billion during week 1 of the NFL season, matching the total volume from the first 14 weeks of last NFL season.

Sports and parlays volume in week 1 was 29% higher than the World Cup highs, according to the firm's analysis of data from 8 exchanges. Needham said it is now tracking prediction markets broadly across exchanges, with data normalized for an NFL week from Tuesday to Monday.

Kalshi maintained its position as the market leader with 76% share of sports and parlays volume. Polymarket and DKeX followed as the next largest exchanges by volume.

The firm estimated the consumer equivalent handle at $2.1 billion, which would represent approximately 60% penetration of the prediction market serviceable addressable market.

Due to Kalshi's higher parlay penetration, its market share for consumer equivalent handle decreased to 67% from 76%. Polymarket's share increased to 18% from 12% for total volume, while DKeX remained at roughly 3% share on both metrics.

Needham noted that focusing on exchange volumes may overstate Kalshi and Polymarket market share as other operators feed into their exchange. The analysis may understate DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) as the company feeds its volume into multiple exchanges. The firm said it expects DraftKings to concentrate its volume in its own exchange over time.

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