Xponential Fitness Inc (XPOF) PT Lowered to $4.50 at UBS on Softer H2 Expectations

UBS analyst Arpine Kocharyan lowered the price target on Xponential Fitness Inc (NYSE: XPOF) to $4.50 (from $7.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

The analyst commented, "We are lowering our PT for XPOF to $4.5, down from $7 previously as we revise H2 estimates lower. Our revenue estimates for H2 are now around -9% to -10% lower than previously, driven primarily by lower same store sales and Q2 results. Our FY’26 EBITDA is now at $94M, down from $108M previously. And our FY’27 EBITDA is at $84M, down from $108M previously. With Q2 EBITDA below estimates, and decelerating same store growth in Q2 vs. Q1, XPOF lowered FY guidance for the year, having guided earlier that Q2 same store growth would improve from Q1 trend of down -6%. Lower FY guide is driven by softer-than-expected Q2 and what management has so far seen into Q3. Management noted that its 2H same-store sales assumptions reflect a similar rate of decline in Q3 vs. Q4."

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