Can Anthropic actually match or beat SpaceX’s IPO? Numbers say "Yes, but"

Investing.com -- On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that Anthropic wants its planned IPO to match or exceed SpaceX’s nlockbuster offering, potentially setting up the largest public share sale in history.

SpaceX raised $75 billion when it went public in June, with the total climbing to roughly $86 billion after underwriters exercised their overallotment option. For Anthropic, topping that figure would be extraordinary, but the numbers suggest it is not out of the question.

The Valuation Math Works

Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in a $65 billion private funding round in May. At that valuation, an $86 billion IPO would represent almost 9% of the company.

But Anthropic is unlikely to come public at its May valuation. Reuters reported that bankers and investors have discussed valuations potentially approaching $2 trillion, based largely on expectations for enormous future revenue growth. At $1.5 trillion, an $86 billion offering would amount to about 5.7% of the company; at $2 trillion, just over 4%.

That is a manageable float for a major technology IPO. The bigger question is whether Anthropic can justify the valuation itself.

Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate surpassed $65 billion at the end of July, up from $47 billion in May and roughly $9 billion at the end of 2025. The company is reportedly forecasting revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028.

If Anthropic actually gets anywhere close to that target, a trillion-dollar — or even multi-trillion-dollar — valuation becomes much easier to defend. A $2 trillion valuation against $200 billion of annual revenue would equal roughly 10 times sales, still rich but hardly unprecedented for an exceptionally fast-growing technology business.

That projected ramp is the heart of the bull case. Investors are not being asked to value Anthropic on today's $65 billion revenue base alone; they are being asked to price a company that, if management's forecasts prove accurate, could roughly triple revenue again within little more than two years.

Growth Isn't the Main Problem

Anthropic's financial trajectory gives bankers plenty to sell. The company generated only about $10 billion of revenue in 2025, meaning its current run rate has risen more than sixfold in less than a year.

It also recorded positive adjusted operating income in the second quarter, an important milestone as investors begin focusing less on growth at any cost and more on the economics of AI.

But profitability remains the obvious weakness. Anthropic lost nearly $42 billion in 2025 as spending on computing infrastructure, model development and talent surged. That makes a trillion-dollar-plus valuation unusually dependent on investors believing that today's enormous infrastructure costs eventually translate into operating leverage.

That is particularly relevant because investor fatigue with seemingly bottomless AI spending is becoming a real risk to the valuation story. Hyperscalers and AI developers are collectively committing hundreds of billions of dollars to data centers, chips and power infrastructure, while many of the eventual returns remain uncertain.

If investors continue rewarding that spending as necessary investment in a generational technology shift, Anthropic's growth profile could support a premium valuation. If sentiment turns and the market starts demanding clearer free-cash-flow returns from AI spending, the same capital intensity that currently supports the growth narrative could become a major valuation headwind.

SpaceX Set a Very High Bar

SpaceX's IPO showed that investors are capable of absorbing offerings on a scale once considered impossible.

The company sold shares at $135 apiece and initially raised $75 billion at a roughly $1.75 trillion valuation. Demand reportedly far exceeded the available shares, and the underwriters subsequently exercised their overallotment option, lifting total proceeds to about $86 billion.

That demand is encouraging for Anthropic. But SpaceX also entered the market with businesses ranging from Starlink to launch services and an unusually strong retail following around Elon Musk. Anthropic will be asking investors to make a more concentrated bet on the economics of frontier AI.

So, Can Anthropic Beat It?

Yes — and if Anthropic's revenue forecasts are even broadly correct, the valuation itself may not be the biggest obstacle.

At a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, selling enough shares to raise more than $85 billion would require a relatively modest 4% to 6% float. Structurally, there is nothing especially unusual about that.

The harder test is demand. An $85 billion-plus transaction would absorb an extraordinary amount of institutional capital at a time when investors already have massive exposure to AI through Nvidia, hyperscalers and an expanding pipeline of AI-related debt and equity offerings.

Anthropic therefore does not need investors merely to believe it can become a trillion-dollar company. It needs them to believe that its extraordinary revenue growth will eventually justify today's extraordinary spending, and to commit tens of billions of dollars to that thesis at the same time.

Given its $65 billion revenue run rate, near-$1 trillion private valuation and projected $190 billion to $200 billion of 2028 revenue, beating SpaceX is financially plausible. But if investor enthusiasm for bottomless AI capital spending begins to cool, Anthropic could find that the biggest constraint is not its growth story, but how much more AI risk public markets are willing to absorb.

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