Citi bullish on MongoDB stock, expects 'significant positive estimate revisions'

Investing.com -- Citi reissued its positive catalyst watch on MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB), citing "significant positive estimate revisions" and several upcoming catalysts including earnings, product updates, a Citi conference and an investor day. The bank raised its price target to $545 and reiterated its Buy rating.

Citi analysts said they remain confident in their street-high estimate for Atlas growth of approximately 30% year-over-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2027, and raised total revenue estimates on stronger trends in MongoDB’s Enterprise Advanced (EA) offering. The bank’s intra-quarter fieldwork pointed to "broad-based momentum," with top-of-funnel activity improving as download activity accelerated meaningfully in the second quarter.

According to Citi, download activity from npm js grew more than 100% year-over-year, up from more than 80% growth in the prior quarter, following a step-up in total customer growth over the last twelve months. The bank’s fieldwork also highlighted continued ramping consumption among several AI-native companies identified in the prior quarter, including a new foundational model win.

Conversations with partners at multiple conferences pointed to increased uptake of MongoDB’s consumption among enterprises moving agentic workloads "from proof of concept (PoC) to production."

Citi raised its EA revenue growth assumptions to high-single-digit percentage growth for both the second quarter and full fiscal year 2027, following the general availability of MongoDB’s Vector and AI SKUs, which the analysts believe could be "meaningful upside drivers" for EA. The bank maintained its Atlas growth trajectory of roughly 30%, which it noted is well above guidance and consensus estimates of approximately 26%.

The analysts also examined MongoDB’s positioning in the "agentic memory layer," building on Citi’s earlier comparison between MongoDB and Postgres. They said the database industry is benefiting from secular tailwinds as AI-driven coding increases the volume of code and applications, driving greater demand for databases.

As agentic architecture continues to expand, "MongoDB’s flexible schema, hyperscale portability and memory type flexibility gives it a strong advantage" in that space, the analysts wrote.

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