BofA raises obesity market forecast on Lilly stock international strength

Investing.com - Bank of America raised its global obesity market forecast to $125 billion by 2036 from $114 billion, citing strong first-half results from Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk. The firm maintained its Buy rating on Lilly stock. The increased projection reflects robust international tirzepatide growth and better-than-expected U.S. GLP-1 pricing, along with the addition of non-incretin alternatives to the market model.

Lilly's international Mounjaro brand grew 174% year-over-year, with first-half trends supporting high single-digit addressable patient penetration in fiscal 2026. Outside the U.S., Mounjaro revenue beat consensus expectations by 14%, with launches now spanning 40 core markets. Bank of America forecasts Mounjaro international growth of 96% in fiscal 2026 versus 147% in the first half of 2026, with international sales expected to represent 42% of global sales near term and 46% by 2036.

U.S. GLP-1 pricing held up better than previously estimated, with average net revenue per injectable prescription at $580, down 15% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter. Bank of America now estimates Zepbound's blended price at approximately $525 per prescription for fiscal 2026, up from its prior $405 estimate. The firm expects another double-digit U.S. price decline in fiscal 2027 as the Medicare Bridge program annualizes.

Generic semaglutide products have become commercially available in India, Canada, and Brazil year-to-date. According to Lilly, Mounjaro volume in India has continued to grow without price cuts, suggesting market segmentation between lower-cost options and branded therapies. Bank of America's model does not account for generics being a major disruptor in the 2026-2036 period.

Lilly plans to launch retatrutide in 2027 based on Phase 3 TRIUMPH data. Bank of America models $6 billion in 2036 sales for Phase 3 eloralintide, an amylin, based on an assumed role for GLP-1-intolerant patients or non-responders.

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