Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) PT Lowered to $161 at Stifel on FD Handle Share Loss

Stifel analyst Jeff Stantial lowered the price target on Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) to $161.00 (from $170.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst commented, "We adjust our model to reflect stronger than expected World Cup engagement (both U.S. & International) and U.S. structural hold expansion, offset by unfavorable NBA and World Cup game outcomes. State reported data shows FD continuing to lose handle share into World Cup (April/May tracking -7% Y/Y), though IL data (the only state reporting operator-sport level) shows parlay handle share rebounded in May which coupled with stronger market-wide parlay mix expansion through June leads us to raise our forecasted Q2 structural GGR hold expansion to +100bps Y/Y. While increasingly decoupled from actuals, state data also shows moderating promotional intensity. Normalized for outcomes, we estimate FLUT U.S. is tracking +LSD% ahead of prior Q2E guidance with FY26E narrowly ahead as the NC tax hike offsets stronger WC engagement. While we believe FLUT U.S. is tracking ahead of Q2 guidance, ex-outcomes, we cut our FY27/28E Adj. EBITDA as we re-calibrate our model to lower TAM growth and temper our flow-through assumptions. Our revised FY27/28E Adj. EBITDA is now +5%/+2% vs. Consensus."

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