Boeing forecasts 44,000 new airplane deliveries through 2045

Boeing (NYSE: BA) released its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow, projecting that the global commercial airplane fleet will grow nearly 80% to more than 50,000 aircraft by 2045.

The forecast calls for nearly 44,000 new airplane deliveries over the next 20 years, with half of those replacing older aircraft with more fuel-efficient models. By category, Boeing projects 33,545 single-aisle deliveries, 7,715 widebody, 1,435 regional, and 930 freighters, totaling 43,625 aircraft.

Passenger traffic is expected to grow 4% annually, resulting in a doubling of global air traffic between 2026 and 2045. Boeing said near-term disruptions, including those tied to the Middle East conflict, are not expected to affect long-term growth, with passengers adjusting destinations and routings rather than forgoing travel.

"Airlines are adapting quickly to manage near-term industry constraints while demand for air travel remains resilient," said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.

Emerging and transitioning markets, including China, the Middle East, Latin America, South and Southeast Asia, and Africa, are projected to account for about 55% of new deliveries. Mature regions, including North America, Eurasia, Oceania, and Northeast Asia, will account for the remaining 45%.

Low-cost carrier fleets are expected to grow nearly 4% annually, compared with nearly 3% for network carriers. The global single-aisle fleet is projected to nearly double to more than 36,000 jets, while more than 8,000 widebody aircraft are expected to be in service by 2045.

Air cargo traffic is forecast to grow approximately 3.7% annually through 2045, with international freighter capacity already up 5% year-to-date in 2026. Demand for more than 2,900 production and converted freighters is projected over the period.

Airlines have added nearly 5,500 new airport pairs since 2015, representing nearly 30% network growth. Boeing noted that without efficiency gains from newer jets, airlines would require 9,000 additional aircraft to serve the same number of passengers.

You May Also Be Interested In

• Active options: NVDA TSLA SPCX MU AAPL INTC CRWV
• Ross Stores (ROST) call put ratio 7.4 calls to 1 put with a focus on August 14 weekly 260 and June 280 calls
• Lyntris (LYNX) files for 24M share IPO at $19-$22/sh