Macquarie cuts Macau gaming sector forecasts on weak GGR growth

Investing.com -- Macquarie lowered its second quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Macau's gaming sector by 9.2%, citing weaker-than-expected gross gaming revenue during the period.

The investment bank reduced its full-year 2026 industry GGR forecast to MOP256 billion, representing 3.4% year-over-year growth, down from its previous estimate of MOP262 billion with 6% growth. Macquarie now expects third quarter GGR to remain flat compared to the same period last year.

For the second quarter, Macquarie projects sector adjusted EBITDA will decline 4.6% year-over-year, driven by flat GGR growth. Wynn gained the most market share during the quarter, increasing 1.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 2.0 percentage points year-over-year.

Sands China lost 2.5 percentage points of market share quarter-over-quarter but expanded its share by 1.0 percentage point year-over-year. SJM improved its market share by 0.5 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but experienced a 2.0 percentage point year-over-year contraction due to satellite casino-related losses. Galaxy maintained a 20.5% market share, unchanged both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Macquarie expects the World Cup diversion effect to continue affecting July results. Month-to-date average daily revenue dropped 13% year-over-year, with GGR projected to decline 7-11% for the month. The bank anticipates September GGR will deliver high-teens growth due to last year's typhoon disruption creating a low base for comparison.

Wynn Macau offers the highest dividend yield at approximately 9%, while Sands China provides a 7.5% yield. Galaxy and MGM China offer dividend yields of 5.4% and 5.9%, respectively.

The sector currently trades at 7-9 times earnings, near historical trough valuation levels. Macquarie suggests investors monitor for potential re-entry opportunities following second quarter results.

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