Jefferies Upgrades Murphy USA (MUSA) to Buy

Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe upgraded Murphy USA (NYSE: MUSA) from Hold to Buy with a price target of $625.00 (from $550.00).

The analyst comments: “We are upgrading MUSA to Buy as improving fuel margins and stronger execution drive a materially higher EBITDA outlook, with our estimates now ~20–25% above initial 2026–2028 guidance and targets pulled forward. Near term, we see upside from fuel margins (Q2 at 36¢), while ~50 new stores/year underpin durable growth for the coming years. We raise our PT to $625 (~12x), reflecting higher earnings visibility and confidence in the multi-year algorithm.

With shares down >10% from recent highs, we are upgrading MUSA to Buy as our conviction in EBITDA upside has increased meaningfully under new CEO & CFO. We met with mgmt at our Nantucket Conference, including CEO Mindy West, CFO Donnie Smith, and IR Ash Aulds, and came away incrementally bullish. At the start of 2026, MUSA guided to EBITDA of ~$1.00B/$1.03B/$1.06B for 2026–2028, respectively, figures that implicitly assumed limited fuel volatility. Our updated estimates now point to EBITDA of ~$1.24B/$1.14B/$1.18B over the same period, representing a ~20–25% uplift vs. the original outlook. Importantly, this implies MUSA can achieve its LT EBITDA targets well ahead of schedule.”

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Murphy USA click here. For more ratings news on Murphy USA click here.

Shares of Murphy USA closed at $538.87 yesterday.

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