IMF says energy prices fell after U.S.-Iran deal

Investing.com -- The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that energy and commodity prices have declined following the U.S.-Iran agreement to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though full price normalization will require additional time.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said the Fund will determine on July 8 whether to maintain the three growth scenarios presented in April, which were based on different Iran war outcomes, or return to a traditional baseline forecast in its World Economic Outlook update.

The Strait of Hormuz remained closed in May, pushing benchmark oil prices above $100 per barrel. During that period, Kozack indicated the global economy was shifting from the more favorable "reference forecast," which anticipated a swift conflict resolution, toward an "adverse scenario" projecting 2.5% global growth for 2025.

The Fund reported Thursday that prices for energy, fertilizer, and base metals from the Gulf region have decreased since the agreement. Global inflation expectations have remained anchored and financial conditions accommodative, according to the IMF.

The organization identified net energy importers with limited fiscal buffers or oil reserves as the primary concern regarding the Iran war impact, particularly countries in Africa.

The IMF said it observes strong momentum in India, which continues to serve as a growth engine for the global economy.

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