Match Group (MTCH) Tops Q3 EPS by 3c, Guidance Misses Consensus

Match Group (NASDAQ: MTCH) reported Q3 EPS of $0.51, $0.03 better than the analyst estimate of $0.48. Revenue for the quarter came in at $895 million versus the consensus estimate of $902.86 million.

GUIDANCE:

Match Group sees Q4 2024 revenue of $865-875 million, versus the consensus of $906 million.

• For Q4, we expect Match Group Total Revenue of $865 million to $875 million, essentially flat Y/Y. When excluding revenue from the now-exited Hakuna and other of our live streaming services from the prior year quarter, we expect Match Group Total Revenue to be up 2% to 3% Y/Y. For Tinder, we expect Direct Revenue of $480 to $485 million, down 2% to 3% Y/Y, given the MAU headwinds and ALC initiative delays. We expect mid-single-digit Y/Y declines in Payers, partially offset by modest improvements in RPP. Across our other brands, we expect Direct Revenue to be $370 to $375 million, representing 3% to 5% Y/Y growth. Within our other brands, we expect Hinge Direct Revenue of approximately $145 million, representing ~25% Y/Y growth. We expect Indirect Revenue to be approximately $15 million in the quarter. We expect Q4 Match Group AOI to be $335 to $340 million, including approximately $7 million in employee severance and similar charges and the Canada Digital Services Tax. We expect AOI to be down 6% to 7% Y/Y, but up 4% to 6% Y/Y excluding the $40 million escrow refund as a result of the settlement of the Google litigatio

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