We see the global restaurant delivery industry growing at a ~14% CAGR, reaching ~$810bn by 2027 - MS

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak: "We see the global restaurant delivery industry growing at a ~14% CAGR, reaching ~$810bn by '27: We size the Global Restaurant Delivery TAM at $2.7trn in 2023, still only ~18% penetrated, with online restaurant delivery generating an estimated ~$480bn in sales set to grow at a ~14% '23-'27 CAGR. This growth is driven by ~17%+ '23-'27 growth in Asia, while North America, Europe, Oceania and LATAM (key regions for UBER and DASH) grow at an ~8% CAGR over this same time period. The result is food delivery scaling to reach ~$810bn in sales, or ~23% penetration of the global opportunity by 2027. Within these key markets, we expect UBER/DASH to drive share gains over the next 4 years, with DASH gaining ~100bps and UBER gaining ~200bps of share in their core Restaurant Delivery markets."

"US Growth Runway May be Longer than Expected: Notably, online delivery in the US sits at only ~12% penetration of total restaurant sales, well below the penetration seen in countries like the UK (~22%), Australia (~27%), or Canada (~30%)."

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