David Moenning Daily State of the Markets: 01/09
Tweet
Share
E-mail
Good Enough to be Great
As we reported on Friday, at first glance, the December jobs report appeared to be surprisingly weak. However, by digging a little deeper, analysts found that upward revisions to both the October and November job creation totals produced a cumulative three-month picture that was deemed by the markets to be just good enough to be great.
With just enough job growth to stave off worries of weakness in the economy and no signs of wage inflation pressures, the bulls hailed the return of Goldilocks and had a field day. The Dow tacked on another 77 points and was actually the laggard index in a great first week for stocks. The bulls swept the week by winning every single contest and produced a gain of +2.98% on the S&P 500, which was the best showing in seven months.
The chartists among us were giddy with excitement by the end of the Friday�s session as the indices appeared to have broken out of the current resistance zones. The Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all moved to new four-and-one-half year highs, while the NYSE, Russell, and Mid Caps all marched on to new all-time highs. Once again though, the DJIA produced the least convincing move of the bunch and we are already hearing worries over the 11,000 level. But, volume was strong and the bulls clearly have control of the ball.
Another important feature to Friday�s activity went almost completely unnoticed in all the hoopla surrounding the return of Goldilocks. Don�t look now, but oil prices are movin� on up again. While energy prices were a non-factor, at least as far as the stock market is concerned, Friday�s pop in crude of $1.42 to $64.21, marked a three-month high and a 4% increase for the week. So, if you are looking for the next thing to worry about, you many not have to go far if the steady rise in oil continues.
Looking to the week ahead, there are no economic reports scheduled to be released before the opening bell this morning. However, we will get the report on Consumer Credit, which helps us understand what consumers are thinking, later in the day. On Tuesday, the report on Wholesale Inventories will be issued and then on Thursday we�ll see data on the Trade Deficit and Import Prices. Friday�s pre-open will be busy as the PPI report as well as the much anticipated report on Retail sales will be available at 8:30.
Turning to this morning, things are fairly quiet before the opening bell and there aren�t any major moves occurring at the moment. Gold is up again by $0.80 to $542.00. Oil prices are continuing to inch up on word that Iran has confirmed the restarting of a nuclear program. Crude futures are currently higher by +$0.29 to $64.50. After falling -14% last week on warmer weather, natural gas prices are down again today by -$0.17 to $9.46. Bond yields are fairly steady with the 2-yr at 4.35% while the 10-yr is currently trading at 4.37%. And finally, stock futures are hovering around breakeven before the bell (Dow -5, S&P -1, and NASDAQ +1).
So with the bulls currently flexing their muscles, the question of the day is if our bovine buddies are going to let their furry friends in the game this week (via a pullback, or retest) or just continue to march forward?
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
IBM � Downgraded at JP Morgan, Reiterated overweight at Prudential
TYC � WSJ reports breakup possible soon
ABT � Upgraded to overweight at JPM
CSCO � Upgraded to overweight at Prudential
KLAC � Upgraded at Piper
INTC � CSFB raises target, UBS reduces targets
Disclosure: At the time of publication Mr. Moenning and/or related companies are long the following positions: IBM, INTC, CSCO
To see David Moenning�s Trading Record, his (Strong Buy) List, or the rank for any Top Guns Stocks, visit: http://www.AnotherWinningTrade.com/SI
As we reported on Friday, at first glance, the December jobs report appeared to be surprisingly weak. However, by digging a little deeper, analysts found that upward revisions to both the October and November job creation totals produced a cumulative three-month picture that was deemed by the markets to be just good enough to be great.
With just enough job growth to stave off worries of weakness in the economy and no signs of wage inflation pressures, the bulls hailed the return of Goldilocks and had a field day. The Dow tacked on another 77 points and was actually the laggard index in a great first week for stocks. The bulls swept the week by winning every single contest and produced a gain of +2.98% on the S&P 500, which was the best showing in seven months.
The chartists among us were giddy with excitement by the end of the Friday�s session as the indices appeared to have broken out of the current resistance zones. The Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all moved to new four-and-one-half year highs, while the NYSE, Russell, and Mid Caps all marched on to new all-time highs. Once again though, the DJIA produced the least convincing move of the bunch and we are already hearing worries over the 11,000 level. But, volume was strong and the bulls clearly have control of the ball.
Another important feature to Friday�s activity went almost completely unnoticed in all the hoopla surrounding the return of Goldilocks. Don�t look now, but oil prices are movin� on up again. While energy prices were a non-factor, at least as far as the stock market is concerned, Friday�s pop in crude of $1.42 to $64.21, marked a three-month high and a 4% increase for the week. So, if you are looking for the next thing to worry about, you many not have to go far if the steady rise in oil continues.
Looking to the week ahead, there are no economic reports scheduled to be released before the opening bell this morning. However, we will get the report on Consumer Credit, which helps us understand what consumers are thinking, later in the day. On Tuesday, the report on Wholesale Inventories will be issued and then on Thursday we�ll see data on the Trade Deficit and Import Prices. Friday�s pre-open will be busy as the PPI report as well as the much anticipated report on Retail sales will be available at 8:30.
Turning to this morning, things are fairly quiet before the opening bell and there aren�t any major moves occurring at the moment. Gold is up again by $0.80 to $542.00. Oil prices are continuing to inch up on word that Iran has confirmed the restarting of a nuclear program. Crude futures are currently higher by +$0.29 to $64.50. After falling -14% last week on warmer weather, natural gas prices are down again today by -$0.17 to $9.46. Bond yields are fairly steady with the 2-yr at 4.35% while the 10-yr is currently trading at 4.37%. And finally, stock futures are hovering around breakeven before the bell (Dow -5, S&P -1, and NASDAQ +1).
So with the bulls currently flexing their muscles, the question of the day is if our bovine buddies are going to let their furry friends in the game this week (via a pullback, or retest) or just continue to march forward?
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
IBM � Downgraded at JP Morgan, Reiterated overweight at Prudential
TYC � WSJ reports breakup possible soon
ABT � Upgraded to overweight at JPM
CSCO � Upgraded to overweight at Prudential
KLAC � Upgraded at Piper
INTC � CSFB raises target, UBS reduces targets
Disclosure: At the time of publication Mr. Moenning and/or related companies are long the following positions: IBM, INTC, CSCO
To see David Moenning�s Trading Record, his (Strong Buy) List, or the rank for any Top Guns Stocks, visit: http://www.AnotherWinningTrade.com/SI
Create E-mail Alert Related Categories
Contributors, Special ReportsSign up for StreetInsider Free!
Receive full access to all new and archived articles, unlimited portfolio tracking, e-mail alerts, custom newswires and RSS feeds - and more!
