David Moenning�s Daily State of the Markets 09/29
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Good morning and a Happy Friday to all. The focus of yesterday�s market continued to be the Dow�s flirtation with reaching new all-time highs. And given that we begin today�s session just 4.53 points shy of the Promised Land; you can rest assured that the new-high hoopla will continue.
It's been nearly seven years since we got to do any kind of new-high dance and frankly it may be another seven years before we get to talk about a new-high in the NASDAQ. But given the turmoil that the markets have experienced in the past few of years with terrorism, oil prices, corporate scandals, the Fed, and hurricanes, the bull camp is sure to stay in the moment during this celebration.
Another focal point, which certainly isn�t lost on the bulls, is the fact that barring a last minute disaster today, the third quarter�s return will wind up being one of the best quarterly showings in years. And don�t look now, but the Dow is also just a stone�s throw away from a double-digit gain for the year, something investors haven�t seen since 2003. And after that, you have to go all the way back to 1999 to find an above average return for a calendar year.
Yesterday�s ride was anything but smooth, as stock prices appear to continue to be tied to the price of oil. And despite continued chatter about OPEC production cuts � Reuters reported that several key producers have agreed to cut supplies beginning on October 1st � crude oil finished the day with a loss of $0.20 to $62.76. This helped stocks finish strong into the close and further the anticipation of that fresh new high on the Dow.
Turning to this morning, the mood continues to favor green screens as earnings results from the likes of Research in Motion (RIMM) have the futures moving north in the early going. We�ve also got some more economic data to sift through this morning in the form of the Personal Income and Spending report, with more on the way after the bell.
August�s Personal Income and Spending numbers came in pretty much in line with expectations while the all-important PCE Deflator, which is one of the Fed�s favorite measures of inflation, also matched expectations on the month. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE ticked upward to 2.5%, but was also in line with the consensus. The numbers haven�t created much movement in the stock and bond market.
Running through the pre-game indicators, overseas markets are once again, fractionally higher across the board. Gold futures are moving a bit lower this morning and are quoted at $606.40 right now. Crude oil futures are also giving up some ground and are currently off $0.44 at $62.32. Interest rates are moving a smidge lower this morning with the 2-year currently quoted at 4.65% while the 10-yr is trading with a yield of 4.61% right now. And finally, with about an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are about even with fair value. The Dow futures are currently ahead by 16, the S&Ps are up +1.90, and the NASDAQ is sitting with a gain of about 6 points at the moment.
Stocks �In Play� This Morning:
China Mobile (CHL) � Mentioned positively at Goldman Sachs
Univision (UVN) � Downgraded at BofA, Debt downgraded at Moody�s
Phelps Dodge (PD) � Downgraded at Bear Stearns
Tibco Software (TIBX) � Downgraded at Citigroup
Chemed (CHE) � Downgraded at Deutsche Bank
Research in Motion (RIMM) � Reports $0.74 vs. $0.71, Upgraded at Deutsche, ThinkEquity, Estimates and price target raised at BofA
First Data Corp (FDC) � Removed from recommended list at Friedman, Billings
Swift Transportation (SWFT) � Downgraded at JPM
Checkpoint Software (CHKP) � Downgraded at Lehman
Sherman Williams (SHW) � Downgraded at Morgan Stanley
Kraft (KFT) � Downgraded at Morgan Stanley
Texas Instruments (TXN) � Downgraded at ThinkEquity
Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) � Upgraded at Prudential
CB (Chubb) � Downgraded at AG Edwards
Google (GOOG) � Mentioned positively at Bear Stearns
Accenture (ACN) � Upgraded at Credit Suisse, Needham
Apple Computer (AAPL) � Reportedly in discussions with WMT regarding an alliance on video downloads
Long positions in stocks mentioned: CHL, MCO, PD
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
www.TopGunsTrading.com
Good morning and a Happy Friday to all. The focus of yesterday�s market continued to be the Dow�s flirtation with reaching new all-time highs. And given that we begin today�s session just 4.53 points shy of the Promised Land; you can rest assured that the new-high hoopla will continue.
It's been nearly seven years since we got to do any kind of new-high dance and frankly it may be another seven years before we get to talk about a new-high in the NASDAQ. But given the turmoil that the markets have experienced in the past few of years with terrorism, oil prices, corporate scandals, the Fed, and hurricanes, the bull camp is sure to stay in the moment during this celebration.
Another focal point, which certainly isn�t lost on the bulls, is the fact that barring a last minute disaster today, the third quarter�s return will wind up being one of the best quarterly showings in years. And don�t look now, but the Dow is also just a stone�s throw away from a double-digit gain for the year, something investors haven�t seen since 2003. And after that, you have to go all the way back to 1999 to find an above average return for a calendar year.
Yesterday�s ride was anything but smooth, as stock prices appear to continue to be tied to the price of oil. And despite continued chatter about OPEC production cuts � Reuters reported that several key producers have agreed to cut supplies beginning on October 1st � crude oil finished the day with a loss of $0.20 to $62.76. This helped stocks finish strong into the close and further the anticipation of that fresh new high on the Dow.
Turning to this morning, the mood continues to favor green screens as earnings results from the likes of Research in Motion (RIMM) have the futures moving north in the early going. We�ve also got some more economic data to sift through this morning in the form of the Personal Income and Spending report, with more on the way after the bell.
August�s Personal Income and Spending numbers came in pretty much in line with expectations while the all-important PCE Deflator, which is one of the Fed�s favorite measures of inflation, also matched expectations on the month. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE ticked upward to 2.5%, but was also in line with the consensus. The numbers haven�t created much movement in the stock and bond market.
Running through the pre-game indicators, overseas markets are once again, fractionally higher across the board. Gold futures are moving a bit lower this morning and are quoted at $606.40 right now. Crude oil futures are also giving up some ground and are currently off $0.44 at $62.32. Interest rates are moving a smidge lower this morning with the 2-year currently quoted at 4.65% while the 10-yr is trading with a yield of 4.61% right now. And finally, with about an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are about even with fair value. The Dow futures are currently ahead by 16, the S&Ps are up +1.90, and the NASDAQ is sitting with a gain of about 6 points at the moment.
Stocks �In Play� This Morning:
China Mobile (CHL) � Mentioned positively at Goldman Sachs
Univision (UVN) � Downgraded at BofA, Debt downgraded at Moody�s
Phelps Dodge (PD) � Downgraded at Bear Stearns
Tibco Software (TIBX) � Downgraded at Citigroup
Chemed (CHE) � Downgraded at Deutsche Bank
Research in Motion (RIMM) � Reports $0.74 vs. $0.71, Upgraded at Deutsche, ThinkEquity, Estimates and price target raised at BofA
First Data Corp (FDC) � Removed from recommended list at Friedman, Billings
Swift Transportation (SWFT) � Downgraded at JPM
Checkpoint Software (CHKP) � Downgraded at Lehman
Sherman Williams (SHW) � Downgraded at Morgan Stanley
Kraft (KFT) � Downgraded at Morgan Stanley
Texas Instruments (TXN) � Downgraded at ThinkEquity
Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) � Upgraded at Prudential
CB (Chubb) � Downgraded at AG Edwards
Google (GOOG) � Mentioned positively at Bear Stearns
Accenture (ACN) � Upgraded at Credit Suisse, Needham
Apple Computer (AAPL) � Reportedly in discussions with WMT regarding an alliance on video downloads
Long positions in stocks mentioned: CHL, MCO, PD
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
www.TopGunsTrading.com
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