David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 05/18
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Price: $350.41 +4.41%
Overall Analyst Rating:
SELL (= Flat)
Dividend Yield: 1.1%
Revenue Growth %: +12.6%
Overall Analyst Rating:
SELL (= Flat)
Dividend Yield: 1.1%
Revenue Growth %: +12.6%
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Weebles Wobble...
Yesterday's market reminded us of that very old toy commercial with the tag line, “Weebles wobble, but they don’t fall down.” In short, while players on both teams recognize that the market is extended and due for a rest, the bears couldn’t get anything going yesterday and stocks finished with only modest losses.
The day's economic data could have been to blame for the sloppy session as there was something for everyone to point to in order to support their cause. The bulls liked the fact that jobless claims fell last week for the fifth consecutive week and the fact that the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in better than expected.
On the other side of the aisle, the bears argued that the Index of Leading Economic Indicators points to slower growth ahead. And from there it is pretty easy to extrapolate slower economic growth into a slowdown in earnings.
The other important factors of the day included higher oil prices (crude rose $2.21 to close at $64.86), some decent earnings from the likes of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and JC Penney (JCP), and new M&A headlines.
While one day does not a trend make, both teams come into today looking for an opening to get things going their way. The bulls have been able to keep their opponents caged up for quite some time as it’s been two months since the Dow has declined two days in a row. And the bears, well, they’re definitely due for a day or two in the spotlight.
Turning to this morning, there is no economic news to report before the bell but we will get a report from the University of Michigan on Consumer Confidence at 10:00 am. On the news wires overnight, we find that the Chinese Central bank raised interest rates and margin rates and announced a wider trading range target for the Yuan.
In terms of pre-market trading, the bulls look like they will try and get thing moving in the right direction again as the futures are pointing to a higher open.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the overseas markets were mixed by region with Asia lower and Europe higher. Gold futures are higher by $0.60 this morning with the last trade at $657.80. Crude futures are moving up a bit this morning with the latest quote showing the futures contract up $0.23 to $5.09. Interest rates are a smidge lower today as the yield on the 10-year currently stands at 4.75%. And finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are looking to open a bit higher. The Dow futures are currently ahead by about 39 points; the S&Ps are more than 5 points above board, and the NASDAQ looks to be about 10 points ahead of fair value at the moment.
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
Yesterday’s Earnings After the Bell:
Intuit (Nasdaq: INTU) – Reported $1.13 vs. $1.07
Nordstrom’s (NYSE: JWN) – Reported $0.60 vs. $0.57
Kohls (NYSE: KSS) – Reported $0.64 vs. $0.62
News, Upgrades/Downgrades/Brokerage Research:
Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) – Downgraded at Bear Stearns
Alliance Data Systems (NYSE: ADS) – Downgraded at Bear Stearns, Piper, RW Baird
Verizon (NYSE: VZ) – Upgraded at Citigroup
Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN) – Upgraded at Citigroup
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) – Upgraded at Merrill Lynch
Mr. Moenning holds Long positions in stocks mentioned: none
Note: All earnings reports compared to Reuter's consensus estimates
** For More of David Moenning’s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM’s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
Yesterday's market reminded us of that very old toy commercial with the tag line, “Weebles wobble, but they don’t fall down.” In short, while players on both teams recognize that the market is extended and due for a rest, the bears couldn’t get anything going yesterday and stocks finished with only modest losses.
The day's economic data could have been to blame for the sloppy session as there was something for everyone to point to in order to support their cause. The bulls liked the fact that jobless claims fell last week for the fifth consecutive week and the fact that the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index came in better than expected.
On the other side of the aisle, the bears argued that the Index of Leading Economic Indicators points to slower growth ahead. And from there it is pretty easy to extrapolate slower economic growth into a slowdown in earnings.
The other important factors of the day included higher oil prices (crude rose $2.21 to close at $64.86), some decent earnings from the likes of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and JC Penney (JCP), and new M&A headlines.
While one day does not a trend make, both teams come into today looking for an opening to get things going their way. The bulls have been able to keep their opponents caged up for quite some time as it’s been two months since the Dow has declined two days in a row. And the bears, well, they’re definitely due for a day or two in the spotlight.
Turning to this morning, there is no economic news to report before the bell but we will get a report from the University of Michigan on Consumer Confidence at 10:00 am. On the news wires overnight, we find that the Chinese Central bank raised interest rates and margin rates and announced a wider trading range target for the Yuan.
In terms of pre-market trading, the bulls look like they will try and get thing moving in the right direction again as the futures are pointing to a higher open.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the overseas markets were mixed by region with Asia lower and Europe higher. Gold futures are higher by $0.60 this morning with the last trade at $657.80. Crude futures are moving up a bit this morning with the latest quote showing the futures contract up $0.23 to $5.09. Interest rates are a smidge lower today as the yield on the 10-year currently stands at 4.75%. And finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are looking to open a bit higher. The Dow futures are currently ahead by about 39 points; the S&Ps are more than 5 points above board, and the NASDAQ looks to be about 10 points ahead of fair value at the moment.
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
Yesterday’s Earnings After the Bell:
Intuit (Nasdaq: INTU) – Reported $1.13 vs. $1.07
Nordstrom’s (NYSE: JWN) – Reported $0.60 vs. $0.57
Kohls (NYSE: KSS) – Reported $0.64 vs. $0.62
News, Upgrades/Downgrades/Brokerage Research:
Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) – Downgraded at Bear Stearns
Alliance Data Systems (NYSE: ADS) – Downgraded at Bear Stearns, Piper, RW Baird
Verizon (NYSE: VZ) – Upgraded at Citigroup
Priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN) – Upgraded at Citigroup
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) – Upgraded at Merrill Lynch
Mr. Moenning holds Long positions in stocks mentioned: none
Note: All earnings reports compared to Reuter's consensus estimates
** For More of David Moenning’s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM’s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
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