What's Next for Google Stock? $200 or $400? (GOOG)

Broadpoint.AmTech issued a research note earlier evaluating the likelihood that Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) stock price would be at $200 before breaking through the $400 level.

The Google report comes amid recent investor concerns related to the company's growth prospects "given the severity of the retail spending slow-down." Broadpoint.AmTech believes that for the $200 scenario to be fulfilled, Google would have to record flat US sales growth next year. In order for this to happen, the firm estimates that overall US retail spending would have to fall another 19% in 2009 on top of 2008's 22% decline. The firm admits that "as bad as the recession may get, we don’t think this is plausible."

Further, Broadpoint.AmTech believes that international sales are less likely to decline than domestic sales, given that Google is "even more dominant in Europe and other Americas than in the U.S."

To add some perspective to its case, the firm points out that if Google's price were to go to $200, its stock would trade at a P/E under 10.5x non-GAAP earnings. On the other hand, "for the $400 scenario to play out, the economy would have to find a bottom in mid-late 2009 and the stock get a 20x multiple on depressed 2009 pro-forma earnings."

Given the above analysis, Broadpoint.AmTech reiterated its Buy rating on shares of Google, but cut its price target to more in-line levels -- from $480 to $410.

Google, Inc., a technology company, maintains index of Web sites and other online content for users, advertisers, Google network members, and other content providers.

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