Barclays on Financial Services: May 2012 Credit Card Trust Data Preview
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Price: $325.44 +2.18%
Rating Summary:
20 Buy, 26 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend:
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Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 5 | Down: 11 | New: 27
Rating Summary:
20 Buy, 26 Hold, 3 Sell
Rating Trend:
Up
Today's Overall Ratings:
Up: 5 | Down: 11 | New: 27
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Barclays on Financial Services: May 2012 Credit Card Trust Data Preview
Analyst, Jason M. Goldberg, said, "This Friday, June 15, we expect AXP, BAC, C, COF, DFS, and JPM to report master trust data for May. After outpacing seasonal trends for many months, recent delinquency improvement has more closely approximated expected seasonal trends, and we expect that trend to continue in May (industry 14-year median is 11bps of improvement m-o-m in May), as metrics approach or have surpassed historically normal levels..."
Our estimates for each issuer's May delinquencies and NCOs are:
American Express (NYSE: AXP): Managed NCOs down 10bps to 2.3% and trust NCOs down 22bps to 2.35%. Managed delinquencies down 10bps to 1.2% and trust delinquencies down 7bps to 1.32%.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC): NCOs down 19bps to 5.50%; delinquencies down 12bps to 3.33%.
Citi (NYSE: C): NCOs down 63bps to 5.30%; delinquencies down 11bps to 2.60%.
Capital One (NYSE: COF): NCOs - managed U.S. card down 12bps to 3.95%; trust down 26bps to 3.30%. Delinquencies - managed U.S. card down 7bps to 3.11%; trust down 9bps to 2.90%.
Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS): NCOs down 15bps to 2.45%; delinquencies down 9bps to 1.95%.
JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM): NCOs up 6bps to 4.25%; delinquencies down 8bps to 2.13%.
Analyst, Jason M. Goldberg, said, "This Friday, June 15, we expect AXP, BAC, C, COF, DFS, and JPM to report master trust data for May. After outpacing seasonal trends for many months, recent delinquency improvement has more closely approximated expected seasonal trends, and we expect that trend to continue in May (industry 14-year median is 11bps of improvement m-o-m in May), as metrics approach or have surpassed historically normal levels..."
Our estimates for each issuer's May delinquencies and NCOs are:
American Express (NYSE: AXP): Managed NCOs down 10bps to 2.3% and trust NCOs down 22bps to 2.35%. Managed delinquencies down 10bps to 1.2% and trust delinquencies down 7bps to 1.32%.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC): NCOs down 19bps to 5.50%; delinquencies down 12bps to 3.33%.
Citi (NYSE: C): NCOs down 63bps to 5.30%; delinquencies down 11bps to 2.60%.
Capital One (NYSE: COF): NCOs - managed U.S. card down 12bps to 3.95%; trust down 26bps to 3.30%. Delinquencies - managed U.S. card down 7bps to 3.11%; trust down 9bps to 2.90%.
Discover Financial (NYSE: DFS): NCOs down 15bps to 2.45%; delinquencies down 9bps to 1.95%.
JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM): NCOs up 6bps to 4.25%; delinquencies down 8bps to 2.13%.
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