Goldman on Rate Cuts: 'we now expect an initial string of consecutive 25bp rate cuts in September, November, and December'
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Morgan Stanley on Markets: Path to a 'Goldilocks' scenario is narrowing
August 4, 2024 5:30 AM EDTAccording to Morgan Stanley, the path to a "Goldilocks" scenarioa state of economic equilibrium characterized by moderate growth and low inflationis becoming increasingly difficult to navigate.
The bank's latest note highlighted the market's reaction to a potential start of Federal Reserve rate cuts in September, driven by a noticeable slowdown in June inflation, which caused a significant drop in US Treasury yields and a rotation in equity leadership.
The bank explained that the S&P 500 Index,... More
David Evanson on Fed Cuts Post NFP: 'a September 18th key interest rate cut is now 100% certain'
August 2, 2024 10:53 AM EDT(Updated - August 2, 2024 10:54 AM EDT)
David Evanson on Fed Cuts Post NFP: 'a September 18th key interest rate cut is now 100% certain'
The analyst comments "The July payroll report was disastrous and the call for the Fed to cut key interest rates 0.5% is now rising. The Labor Department reported that only 114,000 payroll jobs were created in July, which was substantially below economists consensus estimate of 175,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June. One reason that... More
ING on Fed Cuts Post NFP Report: 'we are going to see the market gunning for one of those being a 50bp now'
August 2, 2024 10:21 AM EDTThe analyst comments "The July US jobs report really makes the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Everything is weak. Non-farm payrolls growth of just 114k with 29k of downward revisions to the past two months (consensus was 175k). Private payrolls grew just 97k while wage growth comes... More
BofA Sees 25bps Cut to FFR in September
August 2, 2024 10:18 AM EDTBofA Sees 25bps Cut to FFR in September
The analyst comments "A start in September appears locked in now. We think a softer-than-expected July employment report on the heels of other soft data like the ISM manufacturing report helps to lock-in a rate cut in September. Hence, we adjust our outlook for monetary policy in favor of more cuts. We now look for the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25bp at the... More
Jefferies Sees 25bps FFR Cut in September, 'we do not think that there's any evidence that a recession is imminent'
August 2, 2024 10:16 AM EDTJefferies Sees 25bps FFR Cut in September, 'we do not think that there's any evidence that a recession is imminent'
The analyst comments "Turning back to the Fed, we are adjusting our call to reflect a 25 bp cut in September and another one following in December. Past that, we... More
Durable Goods (May F) -6.7% vs -6.6% Prior, Ex-Trans 0.4% vs 0.5%
August 2, 2024 10:05 AM EDTDurable Goods (May F) -6.7% vs -6.6% Prior, Ex-Trans 0.4% vs 0.5%
... MoreEvercore See 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, Possible 50bps in September
August 2, 2024 10:02 AM EDTEvercore See 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, Possible 50bps in September.
The analyst comments "Following this report we think the Fed will cut at least three times in 2024 September, November and December in a more front-loaded effort to secure the soft landing. Further we think there is now a realistic possibility... More
Factory Orders (Jun) -3.3% vs -3.2% Expected
August 2, 2024 10:01 AM EDTFactory Orders (Jun) -3.3% vs -3.2% Expected
... MoreFed seen cutting rates by half a point in Sept, after weak jobs data
August 2, 2024 8:41 AM EDT(Reuters) - Traders bet on Friday that the Federal Reserve will start easing policy in September with a big half-percentage-point interest rate cut, after government data showed employers added far fewer workers than expected last month, and the jobless rate rose.  Interest rate futures contracts now reflect about a 70%... More
Traders See 90% Chance Of A Half-point Cut In September - Bloomberg
August 2, 2024 8:39 AM EDTTraders See 90% Chance Of A Half-point Cut In September - Bloomberg
... MoreChange in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 114K vs 175K Expected, Unemployment Rate 4.3%
August 2, 2024 8:30 AM EDTChange in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 114K vs 175K Expected, Unemployment Rate 4.3%
The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs.
This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical... More
Stocks are falling because bad news is bad again
August 2, 2024 6:18 AM EDTMarkets are facing a downturn as weak macroeconomic data and mixed Q2 earnings reports drive a defensive rotation, according to Barclays analysts.
The recent trend indicates that "bad is bad now," said the bank, noting that negative news has led to sharply adverse market reactions, a shift from the previous sentiment where poor data was seen as potentially reviving the Fed's supportive stance.
Barclays highlights that soft activity data from the US,... More
Investors should sell stocks at first rate cut amid growing 'hard landing' risks - BofA
August 2, 2024 6:05 AM EDTBank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett believe investors should sell stocks on the first Federal Reserve rate cut, citing an increased likelihood of a more severe U.S. recession.
In their weekly report published Friday, strategists highlighted the "clearly rising" risks of a "hard landing" at a time when the consensus expects a soft or no landing.
Hartnett specifically points out the historical... More
Stocks drop, Nasdaq confirms correction as recession fears mount
August 2, 2024 5:34 AM EDTBy Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks sold off for a second straight session on Friday, and the Nasdaq Composite confirmed it was in correction territory after a soft jobs report stoked fears of an oncoming recession.
The Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000 jobs last month, well short of the 175,000 average forecast by economists polled by Reuters, and the at least 200,000 that economists believe are needed to keep up with population growth. The unemployment rate jumped up to 4.3%, near a three-year high.
The data added to concerns the economy was slowing more... More
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) call put ratio 1 call to 1 put on 11M contracts
August 2, 2024 4:59 AM EDTSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) 30-day option implied volatility is at 17; compared to its 52-week range of 10 to 19.
... MoreGlobal S&P Futures mixed to lower in premarket
August 2, 2024 4:42 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed to lower in premarket, Nikkei down 5.8%, DAX down 1%, WTI Crude oil recently at $77, natural gas up 1%, gold at $2509
... MoreFed to cut in September, December, Macquarie says, amid fresh recession jitters
August 1, 2024 5:26 PM EDTInvesting.com -- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut next month and followed it up by cutting again in December to ensure the economy remains on track for a soft landing just as fears of a recession resurface.
"Fed rate cuts will start in September, and continue in December," Macquarie said in a Thursday note.Â
Expectations for a September rate cut were given another boost on Wednesday after Powell signaled that a rate cut was on the table for September should incoming data provide further confidence of progress on... More
Wall Street 'fear gauge' jumps to three-month high as stocks resume slide
August 1, 2024 5:25 PM EDTNEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street's most watched gauge of investor anxiety jumped to a more than three-month high on Thursday as U.S. stocks fell sharply after a round of data on Thursday spurred concerns the economy may be slowing faster than anticipated.
The Cboe Volatility Index hit 19.48, its highest since April 19, before paring gains to finish at... More
Equity sentiment 'incrementally more bullish': BofA
August 1, 2024 12:37 PM EDTBank of America analysts have noted an increase in equity sentiment, citing the Sell Side Indicator (SSI) as a key metric.
The bank's SSI, which tracks sell-side strategists' average recommended allocation to equities in a balanced fund, rose by 30 basis points to 55.6% in July, marking its highest level since early 2022.
However, this remains below the 2021 average of 59%, indicating that sentiment has not yet reached overly... More
Fed Swaps Fully Price In Three Interest-rate Cuts By Year-end - Bloomberg
August 1, 2024 10:08 AM EDTFed Swaps Fully Price In Three Interest-rate Cuts By Year-end - Bloomberg
... MoreUS manufacturing gauge drops to eight-month low
August 1, 2024 10:02 AM EDTWASHINGTON(Reuters) - A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity dropped to an eight-month low in July amid a slump in new orders, but that likely exaggerates the industry's struggles as production at factories rebounded sharply in the second quarter.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday that its manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.8 last month, the lowest reading since November, from 48.5 in June. A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.3% of the economy.
Despite declining for a fourth... More
Construction Spending (Jun MoM) -0.3% vs 0.2% Expected
August 1, 2024 10:00 AM EDTConstruction Spending (Jun MoM) -0.3% vs 0.2% Expected
... MoreISM Manufacturing (Jul) 46.8 vs 48.8 Expected
August 1, 2024 10:00 AM EDTISM Manufacturing (Jul) 46.8 vs 48.8 Expected
... MoreS&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jul F) 49.6 vs 49.6 Expected
August 1, 2024 9:45 AM EDTS&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jul F) 49.6 vs 49.6 Expected
... MoreNonfarm Productivity (2Q P) 2.3% vs 1.8% Expected
August 1, 2024 8:30 AM EDTNonfarm Productivity (2Q P) 2.3% vs 1.8% Expected
Unit labor cost 0.9% vs 1.7%... MoreInitial Jobless Claims 249K vs 236K Expected
August 1, 2024 8:30 AM EDTInitial Jobless Claims 249K vs 236K Expected
... MoreGoldman Sachs sees below-consensus July jobs report
August 1, 2024 7:11 AM EDTFollowing a largely anticipated statement from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, the market focus has now shifted to the upcoming employment report due on Friday. Economists and analysts largely expect the report to provide signs that economic conditions are conducive to a rate cut in September.
Goldman Sachs economists estimate that nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in July, below the consensus of 175,000 and the three-month average of 177,000. They also estimate a 125,000 increase in private payrolls, compared to the consensus of... More
Stocks slump in August kick-off as data reignites slowdown worries
August 1, 2024 6:15 AM EDTBy Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks kicked off August sharply lower after a round of economic data on Thursday spurred concerns the economy may be slowing faster than anticipated while the Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive monetary policy.
Equities initially opened higher, buoyed in part by gains in Meta Platforms after its quarterly results topped expectations and the Facebook parent issued an upbeat outlook for the third quarter. Its shares closed 5.87% higher as the biggest boost to the S&P 500.
Early gains, however, evaporated after data showed a measure of manufacturing... More
Low bar for September Fed rate cut, jobs data now key
August 1, 2024 5:47 AM EDTThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered a largely expected message during its July meeting. While he did not give specific guidance, Chairman Jerome Powel signaled that the committee is moving closer to implementing a rate cut, with a potential reduction on the table for September, contingent on favorable inflation data.
According to Goldman Sachs economists, Powells comments suggest the bar is not very high for a September cut.
The Fed Chair described recent labor market changes, including the rise in the unemployment rate, as signs of normalization rather than significant weakening. He emphasized that... More
Fed guidance, BOE, Meta's results, Apple - what's moving markets
August 1, 2024 5:47 AM EDTInvesting.com -- The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged but signaled the possibility of a cut next month. The Bank of England has that decision to make later in the session. Meta Platforms impressed with its quarterly earnings, and Apple is next up after the close.Â
1. Fed lifts September rate cut confidence
The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its latest policy-setting meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected, but acknowledged recent progress on inflation, raising investor hopes that the central bank... More
Global S&P Futures mixed to lower in premarket
August 1, 2024 5:40 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed to lower in premarket, Nikkei down 2.4%, DAX down 1%, WTI Crude oil recently at $78, natural gas up 1%, gold at $2477
... MoreIran’s Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say - NYT
July 31, 2024 3:19 PM EDT(Updated - July 31, 2024 3:21 PM EDT)
Irans Leader Orders Attack on Israel for Haniyeh Killing, Officials Say - NYT
Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly in retaliation for the killing in Terhan of Hamas's leader, Ismail Haniyeh, according to... MoreFed's Powell: Recent price data bolstering confidence inflation moderating
July 31, 2024 2:47 PM EDTNEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said recent inflation data is increasing the central bank's confidence that inflation pressures are moving back to the 2% target.
After inflation data moderated in the second quarter, Fed officials have "gained greater confidence" price pressures are moderating in way... More
Powell: Rate Cut Could Be On The Table At The September Meeting
July 31, 2024 2:39 PM EDTPowell: Rate Cut Could Be On The Table At The September Meeting
... MoreFed's Powell: Second Quarter Inflatiopn Data Adds to Confidnece
July 31, 2024 2:35 PM EDTFed's Powell: Second Quarter Inflation Data Adds to Confidence
... MoreTraders boost bets Fed goes big on Sept rate cut
July 31, 2024 2:17 PM EDT(Reuters) -Traders on Wednesday added to bets the Federal Reserve will start easing in September and go big when it does, even after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers are not thinking about a 50-basis-point interest rate cut "right now."
Rate futures contracts continue to center around... More
Fed keeps rates steady, but acknowledges inflation progress
July 31, 2024 2:11 PM EDTInvesting.com -- The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday, but acknowledged recent progress on inflation and cooling in the labor market, stoking investor hopes that the central bank could begin cutting rates sooner rather than later.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, kept its benchmark ratein a range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
The Fed has kept rates unchanged over the past year as it assessed incoming data to guide... More
Fed Holds Rates at 5.25% to 5.50%
July 31, 2024 2:00 PM EDT(Updated - July 31, 2024 2:00 PM EDT)
Fed Holds Rates at 5.25% to 5.50%
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to... More
Pending Home Sales 4.8% vs 1.4% Expected
July 31, 2024 10:00 AM EDTPending Home Sales 4.8% vs 1.4% Expected
... MoreMNI Chicago PMI (Jul) 45.3 vs 45 Expected
July 31, 2024 9:45 AM EDTMNI Chicago PMI (Jul) 45.3 vs 45 Expected
... MoreEmployment Cost Index (2Q) 0.9% vs 1% Expected
July 31, 2024 8:30 AM EDTEmployment Cost Index (2Q) 0.9% vs 1% Expected
... MoreUS equities saw bulk of inflows in July, UK outflows stopped: Barclays
July 31, 2024 7:38 AM EDTU.S. equities attracted the majority of global inflows in July, while outflows from UK equities came to a halt, Barclays strategists said in a Wednesday note.
US investors purchased EU equities in June ahead of the French elections, however, due to ongoing political uncertainty and disappointing macro data, they repatriated nearly half of the year-to-date inflows into EU equities in July, strategists note.
The selling of French equities paused after the election, with dip... More
Tech sector should see 20-25% Q2 earnings growth: UBS
July 31, 2024 6:48 AM EDTMicrosoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) reported the result for its fiscal second quarter, with its cloud business seeing a 29% year-over-year revenue increase, slightly down from 31% growth in the previous quarter. Moreover, Q2 revenue slightly missed consensus estimates.
The tech behemoth expects accelerated cloud growth in the first half of next year. Initially, the stock dropped by up to 7% in extended trading but recovered to a 2.6% decline.
According to UBS strategists, Microsofts report could set the stage for market sentiment as... More
Yardeni: Rotating market betting on pivoting Powell
July 31, 2024 6:29 AM EDTFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to acknowledge the stronger-than-expected economy and robust labor market, note that inflation is nearing the 2.0% target, and hint at a potential rate cut in September if upcoming CPI reports show further progress towards the inflation goal during his FOMC speech on Wednesday.
According to Yardeni Research, this is what the market expects the central bank boss to say directly or to strongly suggest.
If... More
S&P 500, Nasdaq boosted by chip rally, Fed rate cut signals
July 31, 2024 6:22 AM EDTBy Chibuike Oguh
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq scored their biggest daily percentage gains since Feb. 22 and the Dow rose on Wednesday as chip stocks rallied and the Federal Reserve kept U.S. interest rates unchanged while signaling possible easing in September if inflation cools.
Seven out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors advanced, led by technology and consumer discretionary stocks. Healthcare, real estate and consumer staples were the weakest.
The Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range as it ended its two-day policymaking meeting on Wednesday, but... More
Global S&P Futures higher in premarket
July 31, 2024 4:35 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures higher in premarket, Nikkei up 1.4%, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $76, natural gas mixed, gold at $2462
... More