Low bar for September Fed rate cut, jobs data now key

Goldman on Rate Cuts: 'we now expect an initial string of consecutive 25bp rate cuts in September, November, and December'

Goldman on Rate Cuts: 'we now expect an initial string of consecutive 25bp rate cuts in September, November, and December'

The analyst comments "Nonfarm payrolls rose 114k in July, below consensus expectations. The industry composition was also soft, as the healthcare sector accounted for over half of the job gains in July and the payrolls diffusion index fell to its lowest level since May 2016. The household survey was also soft, with the... More

David Evanson on Fed Cuts Post NFP: 'a September 18th key interest rate cut is now 100% certain'

(Updated - August 2, 2024 10:54 AM EDT)

David Evanson on Fed Cuts Post NFP: 'a September 18th key interest rate cut is now 100% certain'

The analyst comments "The July payroll report was disastrous and the call for the Fed to cut key interest rates 0.5% is now rising. The Labor Department reported that only 114,000 payroll jobs were created in July, which was substantially below economists consensus estimate of 175,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June. One reason that... More

ING on Fed Cuts Post NFP Report: 'we are going to see the market gunning for one of those being a 50bp now'

The analyst comments "The July US jobs report really makes the case for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Everything is weak. Non-farm payrolls growth of just 114k with 29k of downward revisions to the past two months (consensus was 175k). Private payrolls grew just 97k while wage growth comes... More

BofA Sees 25bps Cut to FFR in September

BofA Sees 25bps Cut to FFR in September

The analyst comments "A start in September appears locked in now. We think a softer-than-expected July employment report on the heels of other soft data like the ISM manufacturing report helps to lock-in a rate cut in September. Hence, we adjust our outlook for monetary policy in favor of more cuts. We now look for the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25bp at the... More

Jefferies Sees 25bps FFR Cut in September, 'we do not think that there's any evidence that a recession is imminent'

Jefferies Sees 25bps FFR Cut in September, 'we do not think that there's any evidence that a recession is imminent'

The analyst comments "Turning back to the Fed, we are adjusting our call to reflect a 25 bp cut in September and another one following in December. Past that, we... More