No rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until 2025?
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Barclays says recession fears are returning
April 26, 2024 8:47 AM EDTBarclays strategists said on Friday that stock investors were gearing up for a mid-to-late expansionary cycle, however, following a spike in volatility in April, fears of a recession have been reintroduced.
For the first time this year, there has been a substantial uptick in the performance of our recession business cycle baskets, strategists... More
US inflation increases moderately; consumer spending boosts Q2 outlook
April 26, 2024 8:42 AM EDTBy Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. monthly inflation rose moderately in March, but stubbornly higher costs for housing and utilities suggested the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for a while.
The report from the Commerce Department on Friday, which also showed strong consumer spending last month, offered some relief to financial markets spooked by worries of stagflation after data on Thursday showed inflation surging and economic growth slowing in the first quarter.
"Markets should breathe a sigh of relief this morning," said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance.... More
Futures extend gains after March PCE data
April 26, 2024 8:37 AM EDT(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures extended gains on Friday, as fresh evidence of progress on the inflation front reignited hopes that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates sometime this year.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in March, compared to a 0.3% increase forecast by... More
PCE Deflator (Mar YoY) 2.7% vs 2.6%; PCE Core Deflator (YoY) 2.8% vs 2.7%
April 26, 2024 8:32 AM EDTPCE Deflator (Mar YoY) 2.7% vs 2.6%; PCE Core Deflator (YoY) 2.8% vs 2.7%
... MorePCE Deflator (Mar MoM) 0.3% vs 0.3%; PCE Core Deflator (MoM) 0.3% vs 0.3%
April 26, 2024 8:30 AM EDTPCE Deflator (Mar MoM) 0.3% vs 0.3%; PCE Core Deflator (MoM) 0.3% vs 0.3%
... MorePersonal Income (Mar) 0.5% vs 0.5% Expected, Spending 0.8% vs 0.6%
April 26, 2024 8:30 AM EDTPersonal Income (Mar) 0.5% vs 0.5% Expected, Spending 0.8% vs 0.6%
... MoreBofA: Equities and bonds witnessed weekly inflows; no landing much more probable
April 26, 2024 6:48 AM EDTIn their latest Flow show report, Bank of America strategists said global equity funds saw inflows of $3.6 billion, while bond funds attracted $4.4 billion in the past week.
Meanwhile, $5.8 billion was withdrawn from cash funds.
Strategists led by Michael Hartnett noted inflows into U.S. stock funds resumed, reaching $4.2 billion for the week ending April 24.... More
UBS sees 3 catalysts for cyclicals to underperform
April 26, 2024 6:30 AM EDTIn a Friday note to clients, strategists at UBS highlighted three catalysts they believe could contribute to the potential underperformance of cyclical stocks.
First, the investment bank noted signs that US macroeconomic momentum may be peaking, as suggested by soft data macro surprises, recent Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures, and UBS forecasts.
Historically, cyclicals underperformed nearly two-thirds of the time when PMIs decline, UBS highlighted.
Clearly, if PMIs rise, then cyclicals tend to rise. They have moved in the same direction as PMI (if we look at 3 month percent change) 63% time in the US and 65% time in... More
Wall Street shares close up as megacap tech stocks rally
April 26, 2024 6:04 AM EDTBy Chibuike Oguh
NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, buoyed by a rally in megacap growth stocks following robust quarterly results from technology heavyweights Alphabet and Microsoft in addition to moderate inflation data.
Investors cheered Alphabet's first-ever dividend, its $70 billion stock buyback program, and better-than-expected first-quarter results. Its shares jumped 10% and reached a record high, lifting the Google-parent's market value above $2 trillion.
Microsoft shares rose 1.8% after its third-quarter revenue and profit exceeded Wall Street estimates, driven by gains from artificial intelligence (AI) adoption across its cloud services.
Other megacap growth stocks... More
Global S&P Futures up in premarket
April 26, 2024 5:36 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures up in premarket, Nikkei up, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $83, natural gas down 3.5%, gold at $2358
... MoreRisk/reward skewed towards lower rates - UBS
April 26, 2024 5:27 AM EDTFollowing another week of strong economic data and low conviction among investors, the 10-year yield on Treasury notes surged to its highest level since November.
Commenting on these developments, UBS strategists believe the risk-reward ratio is skewed towards lower rates though they expect sentiment to remain fragile into US PCE and jobs data next week.
UBS highlighted that the core PCE deflator increased by 3.7% on a seasonally adjusted annual... More
Price choppiness and volatility is here to stay - BMO
April 26, 2024 4:04 AM EDTThe recent weakness in stock markets was likely long overdue, however, the downturn does not necessarily signal that it's safe for stocks to resume the rapid pace they had been on since October 2023, strategists at BMO Capital Markets said in a note.
They argue that if the recent slump were to... More
Why bad data isn't good for stocks
April 25, 2024 7:00 PM EDTBad data will not be good for stocks beyond the near term, according to Sevens Research report in its latest note.
The investment research firm says slowing growth that forces the Federal Reserve to cut earlier than expected is a "material negative for equities due mostly to valuations."
"If investors must price in a legitimate chance... More
