Boston Fed Collins: Recent Data Eased Concerns About Imminent Need to Cut - Bloomberg

FED's Collins: Sees 'in The Range Of Two' Rate Cuts For 2024 - Reuters

FED's Collins: Sees 'in The Range Of Two' Rate Cuts For 2024 - Reuters

GS says buy calls in banks as earnings season kicks off

Goldman Sachs recommends buying calls in banks as earnings season kicks off on Friday with large-cap banking names.

The investment bank revealed that it sees "multiple catalysts over the next three months," including an easing of investor concerns regarding Basel 3 Endgame (B3E) and more news on capital... More

Tech selling continues - Citi

In its sector flow update note on Thursday, Citi said the tech selling is continuing.

"We have seen further selling in the tech sector in particular in the last week," said the investment bank, adding that recent flows have been biased towards selling.

"This week saw large tech... More

Boston Fed Collins: Economic Uncertainty is Elevated

Boston Fed Collins: Economic Uncertainty is Elevated

ECB Governors Still Confident About June Cut, Some See July Pause - Reuters

ECB Governors Still Confident About June Cut, Some See July Pause - Reuters

After CPI report, UBS sees interest rate cut cycle starting only in September

UBS has decided to revise its projections for the start of the interest rate cut cycle in the United States and now estimates that the Federal Reserve will begin the reductions only in September, no longer in June as previously projected. According to a report sent to clients and... More

Active ETFs: SPY JETS QQQ XRT SVXY BITO MUB GOLD TLT XME SQQQ IWM GDX QID

Active ETFs: SPY JETS QQQ XRT SVXY BITO MUB GOLD TLT XME SQQQ IWM GDX QID

July start to Fed rate cuts back in view after data

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve could start interest-rate cuts as early as its late-July meeting, traders bet on Thursday, after a government report showed producer prices in March rose a bit less than expected.    On Wednesday a higher-than-expected reading on March consumer prices -- the third upside surprise in... More

ING weighs in on ECB's decision

ING's Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro, on ECB's decision today not to change its benchmark rate.

"Even if the policy announcement does not explicitly mention June as the moment for a first rate cut, we think that todays meeting should mark the final stop before the cut. In fact, the ECB has gone through a very gradual... More

Macquarie now expects just one rate cut in 2024

Macquarie's David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie, makes changes to the broker's Fed forecast following yesterdays CPI data.

The analyst said: "Our FOMC view shifts more hawkish on these data. We now only expect one 25 bps cut in 2024 (prev. 50 bps). Our baseline is for this to... More

US Initial Jobless Claims: 211K vs 216K Est

US March Initial Jobless Claims: 211K vs 216K Est

US PPI: 0.20% vs 0.30% Est

US PPI MoM: 0.20% vs 0.30% Est

HSBC: Disappointing inflation reading

HSBC economist Ryan Wong on CPI inflation data and Fed's next move, he said: "The March meeting minutes reaffirmed that the FOMC does not expect to cut its policy rate without "greater confidence" on inflation moving toward 2%. Strong economic momentum was also cited, though many policymakers expressed uncertainty about... More

Wall Street strategists don't see Fed cutting rates in June after strong CPI data

Following Wednesday's hotter-than-expected CPI data and the FOMC minutes, analysts at investment banks Citi, UBS, and Goldman Sachs have said they don't see the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June.

Citi told investors in a note that the March minutes show Fed officials still need more confidence.

"'Generally' Fed officials did not have more confidence after the January and February inflation prints, and today's strong March CPI print would have not increased that confidence either," said Citi. "This makes the case... More

S&P 500, Nasdaq end sharply higher on soft inflation data, eyes on earnings

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed higher on Thursday, with tech-related momentum stocks leading the charge, as fresh economic data rekindled hopes that inflation remains in a cooling trend.

Interest rate-sensitive megacaps gave the tech-heavy Nasdaq a decisive edge. The S&P 500 also closed in positive territory, while the Dow ended essentially unchanged.

The Producer Prices index (PPI) came in softer than expected, supporting the narrative that price growth is still cooling.

"The data this morning was mildly more supportive of sort of a benign 'soft landing' outcome than the... More

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $85.50, natural gas mixed, gold at $2347

US stock futures fall after hot inflation dashes rate cut hopes

Investing.com-- U.S. stock index futures fell in evening deals on Wednesday, extending losses on Wall Street after hotter-than-expected inflation data saw investors sharply reverse expectations for a June rate cut.

Losses in stock markets also came as the minutes of the Federal Reserves March meeting showed the central bank needed much more convincing that inflation was easing- a trend likely to be furthered by the consumer price index reading for March. 

S&P 500 Futures fell 0.25% to 5,194.25 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 0.25% to 18,151.75 points by 19:17 ET (23:17 GMT). Dow Jones Futures fell... More

June rate cut bets slashed after hot CPI, hawkish minutes- CME Fedwatch

Investing.com-- Markets sharply cut their expectations for a June rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday following hotter-than-expected inflation data and hawkish-leaning minutes from the central banks March meeting.

The CME Fedwatch tool showed traders were now pricing in an only 17.5% chance for a 25 basis point rate cut in June- down sharply from the 61.1% seen last week. 

Expectations for a hold ballooned to a 81.8% probability, more than doubling from the 37.1% seen last week. 

The tool uses... More

Fed looks to slice balance sheet runoff pace by half

By Michael S. Derby

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve is preparing in short order to slow the rate at which it sheds Treasury securities from its balance sheet, with policymakers generally favoring cutting the recent pace by roughly half in an effort to extend the process of shrinking holdings and reducing the risk of market trouble.

According to minutes released on Wednesday of the Fed's latest policy meeting, held on March 19-20, officials are thinking about the future of their balance sheet winddown, known as quantitative tightening, or QT, with an eye toward the 2017 to 2019... More

Fed's 'confidence' in disinflation not bolstered by recent data, minutes show

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Even before U.S. inflation data on Wednesday came in hotter than expected, Federal Reserve officials had begun worrying last month that progress might have stalled and a longer period of tight monetary policy could be needed to tame the pace of price increases.

"Some" officials at the Fed's March 19-20 meeting even raised the possibility that the current 5.25%-5.50% policy rate was "less restrictive than desired, which could add momentum to aggregate demand and put upward pressure on inflation," according to minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday, the sort of... More

Monthly Budge Statement -$236.5B vs -$223B Expected

Monthly Budge Statement -$236.5B vs -$223B Expected

Fed Minutes: Almost All Saw It Appropriate To Cut This Year

(Updated - April 10, 2024 2:02 PM EDT)

Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations
The manager turned first to a review of developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. U.S. financial conditions had eased modestly since the January FOMC meeting, with higher equity prices more than offsetting increases in interest rates. Nominal Treasury yields had risen over the intermeeting period. At shorter maturities, most of the increase was attributable to a rise in inflation compensation, prompted by indications that the decline in inflation was proceeding somewhat more slowly than markets in recent months had been expecting.... More

Biden Says Inflation News May Delay Rate Cut - Reuters

Biden Says Inflation News May Delay Rate Cut, We Have A Plan To Deal With Inflation - Reuters

Wells Fargo expects 2 rate cuts this year after CPI data

Wells Fargo said it now projects two 25 basis points rate cuts in the third and fourth quarter of this year as its base case for the fed funds rate.

Wednesday's CPI data once again, came in hotter-than-expected. Both headline and core CPI rose 0.4%. The investment bank said that... More

Active ETFs: SPY QQQ IWM TQQQ EWZ TLT SOXL GLD SLV SQQQ HYG KRE GDX XLF XBI IYR

Active ETFs: SPY QQQ IWM TQQQ EWZ TLT SOXL GLD SLV SQQQ HYG KRE GDX XLF XBI IYR

BTIG: Hotter-than-expected inflation slashes June rate cut odds

Analysts at BTIG noted in a client memo on Wednesday that the hotter-than-expected CPI print slashes June rate cut odds and brings S&P e-mini futures (ESM4) near 50 DMA (5167).

The inflation report revealed that headline and core prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, adding doubts to the idea that... More

Wholesale Inventories (Feb F) 0.5% vs 0.5% Expected

Wholesale Inventories (Feb F) 0.5% vs 0.5% Expected

Treasury yields soar on hot March CPI

Treasury bond prices are falling this morning, while treasury yields have soared following today's Consumer Price Index report.

The report showed that both headline and core prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, adding doubts to the idea that the pickup in inflation in January and February was just a blip.

"The benchmark 10-year... More

Fed seen cutting US interest rates later, and less, as inflation stays hot

By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) -Prospects for a first Federal Reserve interest-rate cut before the end of summer -- or even at all this year -- took a body blow on Wednesday with another U.S. inflation report that cast into stark relief the stickiness of price pressures across the U.S. economy.

After months of centering on June for the start of Fed policy easing, traders' bets are now squarely on the Fed's mid-September meeting for an initial rate reduction, after a third straight stronger-than-expected reading on consumer inflation sent financial markets into a fast retreat.

US inflation increased more than expected in March; CPI climbed 3.5% annually

Investing.com -- Headline U.S. consumer price growth accelerated in March, but growth in the underlying measure remained unchanged, which could further increase the uncertainty surrounding the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

The annualized reading of the closely-watched consumer price index increased by 3.5% last month, above the pace of 3.2% notched in February, and more than the 3.4% expected. The year-on-year core figure, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel, stayed at 3.8%.

Month-on-month, the overall consumer price index rose by... More

US consumer prices heat up in March; seen delaying Fed rate cut

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in March as Americans continued to pay more for gasoline and rental housing, leading financial markets to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until September.

The third straight month of strong consumer price readings reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday also suggested that the pick up in inflation in January and February could not be solely attributed to businesses raising prices at the start of the year as economists had argued.

The report followed news last week... More

Fed Swaps Price In Only 50 Basis Points Of Easing In 2024 - Bloomberg

Fed Swaps Price In Only 50 Basis Points Of Easing In 2024 - Bloomberg

CPI (Mar YoY) 3.5% vs 3.4% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 3.8% vs 3.7%

CPI (Mar YoY) 3.5% vs 3.4% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 3.8% vs 3.7%

CPI (Mar MoM) 0.4% vs 0.3% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 0.4% vs 0.3%

CPI (Mar MoM) 0.4% vs 0.3% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 0.4% vs 0.3%

Breaking down the Fed: Here's what analysts expect from today's minutes

Analysts at Citi provided their FOMC minutes preview in a note, stating that they continue to expect a first 25 basis points rate cut in June.

The investment bank explained that its base case is for the unemployment rate to rise and the Fed to cut rates by 125 basis... More

MBA Mortgage Applications 0.1% vs -0.6% Prior

MBA Mortgage Applications 0.1% vs -0.6% Prior

Goldman analysts see earnings driving US stock rally

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research note Wednesday they expect corporate profits, supported by healthy economic growth, to be the primary driver of forward equity returns

The investment bank believes stocks with high operating leverage are poised to benefit, although, at the index level, the potential for further valuation... More

Wall St ends sharply lower as sticky inflation dims rate cut hopes

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks tumbled to a lower close on Wednesday after hotter-than-expected inflation data threw cold water on hopes that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates as early as June.

All three major U.S. stock indexes veered sharply lower at the opening bell after the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report landed north of consensus, a reminder that inflation's road back down to the Fed's 2% target will remain a long and meandering one.

"The stickiness of inflation data caused a 'sell first ask questions later' mentality,"... More

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $85.50, natural gas up 2%, gold at $2371

Stocks sink, yields jump as hot US inflation erodes hopes for rate cuts

By Sinéad Carew and Alun John

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Treasury yields surged while equity indexes sank on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in March, diminishing hopes for how much and how soon the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates.

In currencies, the dollar index rose across the board after the data while the greenback hit its highest level against Japan's yen since 1990, as traders watched to see if Japanese authorities would intervene to prop up the yen.

With rising costs for gasoline and shelter, the... More

Bostic: If Disinflation Pace Resumes, Could Pull Cuts Forward - Bloomberg

(Updated - April 9, 2024 3:30 PM EDT)

(Updated - April 9, 2024 3:27 PM EDT)

(Updated - April 9, 2024 3:23 PM EDT)

Bostic Says Always Possible Fed's Growth Forecast Could Rise - Bloomberg

Citi sees opportunity in risky assets on reflation trade

With the US economic surprise index and GDP now rising again, analysts at Citi said in a note Tuesday that the market is trading the reflation trade.

When assessing assets performance in reflation, the investment bank stated that reflation is negative for government bonds, but only slightly... More

BofA Client Flows: 'Record selling in health care'

Bank of America released its latest equity client flow trends note on Tuesday, revealing that last week, outflows continued with "record selling in health care."

The bank said that last week, when the S&P 500 was -1%, its clients were net sellers of US equities, with outflows primarily... More

Investors unwound $9.4B in long positions last week - Citi

Analysts at Citi said in their Equity Markets Positioning Model note on Tuesday that net positioning declined for the S&P 500 as investors unwound $9.4 billion in long positions last week.

The firm stated that this reversed most of the risk flows observed the week prior and led to a... More

U.S. stocks inch to higher close as markets brace for CPI data, earnings

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted modest gains on Tuesday, a day ahead of major inflation data, weighed down by financial stocks as investors braced for major U.S. banks to kick off earnings reporting season on Friday.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, boosted by chips, enjoyed a more substantial advance, with the S&P 500 nominally higher.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed essentially unchanged.

Wednesday's hotly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at the top of most investors' minds as they tweak expectations on the timing and... More

US small-business sentiment slides to lowest level in more than 11 years

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation, according to a survey on Tuesday.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98.

Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most... More