Biden Says Inflation News May Delay Rate Cut - Reuters

FED's Collins: Sees 'in The Range Of Two' Rate Cuts For 2024 - Reuters

FED's Collins: Sees 'in The Range Of Two' Rate Cuts For 2024 - Reuters

Boston Fed Collins: Economic Uncertainty is Elevated

Boston Fed Collins: Economic Uncertainty is Elevated

Boston Fed Collins: Recent Data Eased Concerns About Imminent Need to Cut - Bloomberg

Boston Fed Collins: Recent Data Eased Concerns About Imminent Need to Cut, Appropriate to begin Rate Cuts Later This Year - Bloomberg

ECB Governors Still Confident About June Cut, Some See July Pause - Reuters

ECB Governors Still Confident About June Cut, Some See July Pause - Reuters

Wells Fargo expects 2 rate cuts this year after CPI data

Wells Fargo said it now projects two 25 basis points rate cuts in the third and fourth quarter of this year as its base case for the fed funds rate.

Wednesday's CPI data once again, came in hotter-than-expected. Both headline and core CPI rose 0.4%. The investment bank said that... More

Active ETFs: SPY QQQ IWM TQQQ EWZ TLT SOXL GLD SLV SQQQ HYG KRE GDX XLF XBI IYR

Active ETFs: SPY QQQ IWM TQQQ EWZ TLT SOXL GLD SLV SQQQ HYG KRE GDX XLF XBI IYR

BTIG: Hotter-than-expected inflation slashes June rate cut odds

Analysts at BTIG noted in a client memo on Wednesday that the hotter-than-expected CPI print slashes June rate cut odds and brings S&P e-mini futures (ESM4) near 50 DMA (5167).

The inflation report revealed that headline and core prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, adding doubts to the idea that... More

Wholesale Inventories (Feb F) 0.5% vs 0.5% Expected

Wholesale Inventories (Feb F) 0.5% vs 0.5% Expected

Treasury yields soar on hot March CPI

Treasury bond prices are falling this morning, while treasury yields have soared following today's Consumer Price Index report.

The report showed that both headline and core prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, adding doubts to the idea that the pickup in inflation in January and February was just a blip.

"The benchmark 10-year... More

Fed seen cutting US interest rates later, and less, as inflation stays hot

By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) -Prospects for a first Federal Reserve interest-rate cut before the end of summer -- or even at all this year -- took a body blow on Wednesday with another U.S. inflation report that cast into stark relief the stickiness of price pressures across the U.S. economy.

After months of centering on June for the start of Fed policy easing, traders' bets are now squarely on the Fed's mid-September meeting for an initial rate reduction, after a third straight stronger-than-expected reading on consumer inflation sent financial markets into a fast retreat.

US inflation increased more than expected in March; CPI climbed 3.5% annually

Investing.com -- Headline U.S. consumer price growth accelerated in March, but growth in the underlying measure remained unchanged, which could further increase the uncertainty surrounding the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

The annualized reading of the closely-watched consumer price index increased by 3.5% last month, above the pace of 3.2% notched in February, and more than the 3.4% expected. The year-on-year core figure, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel, stayed at 3.8%.

Month-on-month, the overall consumer price index rose by... More

US consumer prices heat up in March; seen delaying Fed rate cut

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in March as Americans continued to pay more for gasoline and rental housing, leading financial markets to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until September.

The third straight month of strong consumer price readings reported by the Labor Department on Wednesday also suggested that the pick up in inflation in January and February could not be solely attributed to businesses raising prices at the start of the year as economists had argued.

The report followed news last week... More

Fed Swaps Price In Only 50 Basis Points Of Easing In 2024 - Bloomberg

Fed Swaps Price In Only 50 Basis Points Of Easing In 2024 - Bloomberg

CPI (Mar YoY) 3.5% vs 3.4% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 3.8% vs 3.7%

CPI (Mar YoY) 3.5% vs 3.4% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 3.8% vs 3.7%

CPI (Mar MoM) 0.4% vs 0.3% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 0.4% vs 0.3%

CPI (Mar MoM) 0.4% vs 0.3% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 0.4% vs 0.3%

Breaking down the Fed: Here's what analysts expect from today's minutes

Analysts at Citi provided their FOMC minutes preview in a note, stating that they continue to expect a first 25 basis points rate cut in June.

The investment bank explained that its base case is for the unemployment rate to rise and the Fed to cut rates by 125 basis... More

MBA Mortgage Applications 0.1% vs -0.6% Prior

MBA Mortgage Applications 0.1% vs -0.6% Prior

Goldman analysts see earnings driving US stock rally

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research note Wednesday they expect corporate profits, supported by healthy economic growth, to be the primary driver of forward equity returns

The investment bank believes stocks with high operating leverage are poised to benefit, although, at the index level, the potential for further valuation... More

Wall St ends sharply lower as sticky inflation dims rate cut hopes

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks tumbled to a lower close on Wednesday after hotter-than-expected inflation data threw cold water on hopes that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates as early as June.

All three major U.S. stock indexes veered sharply lower at the opening bell after the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report landed north of consensus, a reminder that inflation's road back down to the Fed's 2% target will remain a long and meandering one.

"The stickiness of inflation data caused a 'sell first ask questions later' mentality,"... More

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $85.50, natural gas up 2%, gold at $2371

Stocks sink, yields jump as hot US inflation erodes hopes for rate cuts

By Sinéad Carew and Alun John

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Treasury yields surged while equity indexes sank on Wednesday after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in March, diminishing hopes for how much and how soon the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates.

In currencies, the dollar index rose across the board after the data while the greenback hit its highest level against Japan's yen since 1990, as traders watched to see if Japanese authorities would intervene to prop up the yen.

With rising costs for gasoline and shelter, the... More

Bostic: If Disinflation Pace Resumes, Could Pull Cuts Forward - Bloomberg

(Updated - April 9, 2024 3:30 PM EDT)

(Updated - April 9, 2024 3:27 PM EDT)

(Updated - April 9, 2024 3:23 PM EDT)

Bostic Says Always Possible Fed's Growth Forecast Could Rise - Bloomberg

Citi sees opportunity in risky assets on reflation trade

With the US economic surprise index and GDP now rising again, analysts at Citi said in a note Tuesday that the market is trading the reflation trade.

When assessing assets performance in reflation, the investment bank stated that reflation is negative for government bonds, but only slightly... More

BofA Client Flows: 'Record selling in health care'

Bank of America released its latest equity client flow trends note on Tuesday, revealing that last week, outflows continued with "record selling in health care."

The bank said that last week, when the S&P 500 was -1%, its clients were net sellers of US equities, with outflows primarily... More

Investors unwound $9.4B in long positions last week - Citi

Analysts at Citi said in their Equity Markets Positioning Model note on Tuesday that net positioning declined for the S&P 500 as investors unwound $9.4 billion in long positions last week.

The firm stated that this reversed most of the risk flows observed the week prior and led to a... More

U.S. stocks inch to higher close as markets brace for CPI data, earnings

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted modest gains on Tuesday, a day ahead of major inflation data, weighed down by financial stocks as investors braced for major U.S. banks to kick off earnings reporting season on Friday.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, boosted by chips, enjoyed a more substantial advance, with the S&P 500 nominally higher.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average closed essentially unchanged.

Wednesday's hotly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at the top of most investors' minds as they tweak expectations on the timing and... More

US small-business sentiment slides to lowest level in more than 11 years

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation, according to a survey on Tuesday.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98.

Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most... More

NFIB Small Business Optimism 88.5 vs 89.9 Expected

NFIB Small Business Optimism 88.5 vs 89.9 Expected

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei up 1%, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $86.80, natural gas up 1%, gold at $2376

Equities barely gain, Treasury yields fall with US inflation in focus

By Sinéad Carew and Samuel Indyk

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) -MSCI's global equity gauge rose slightly on Tuesday while U.S. Treasury yields fell from a more than 4-month high as investors anxiously awaited a U.S. inflation reading and the kick-off of first-quarter earnings.

Oil prices dipped for a second straight day as talks on a ceasefire in Gaza continued but Egyptian and Qatari mediators met resistance. On Monday, Brent had posted its first decline in five sessions and U.S. crude its first in seven days.

The U.S. dollar was little changed with... More

Consumer inflation in the U.S. in focus amid uncertainty over interest rates

This week, all eyes are on consumer inflation data in the United States, following a surprisingly strong payroll employment report that indicated a hot labor market. Even though the Federal Reserve (Fed) prioritizes different indicators, market analysts are closely monitoring inflation perceptions and how they might influence a potential interest rate cut. Currently, interest rates are in contractionary territory, meaning they are intended to slow down economic growth.

Consensus forecasts predict a monthly increase of 0.3% in March for both the headline CPI (including volatile items) and the core CPI (excluding volatile items like energy). In February, both... More

Fed's Goolsbee: Undeniable That Many Are Upset With Economy

Fed's Goolsbee: Undeniable That Many Are Upset With Economy, US Economy Was On 'Golden Path' in 2023 - Reuters

Fed's Goolsbee: Economy Remains Strong, Jobs Data Confirms That

Fed's Goolsbee: Economy Remains Strong, Jobs Data Confirms That, Has To Determine How Long To Be Restrictive On Monetary Policy - Reuters

Analysts increasingly bullish on Energy stocks as rally continues

Analysts at BTIG and Oppenheimer noted the recent momentum in energy stocks in memos on Monday, with the firms saying they see further upside ahead.

Oppenheimer stated in its brief note that against a market grind, key action last week included a fresh breakout for... More

NY Fed finds mixed outlook for inflation expectations in March

By Michael S. Derby

(Reuters) -Americans outlook for inflation was mixed last month amid expectations for bigger price rises across a range of key goods and services, while worries about missing debt payments mounted, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Monday.

The bank found in its March Survey of Consumer Expectations that the public sees inflation a year from now at 3%, unchanged from the prior month. The expected level of inflation three years from now rose to 2.9% from 2.7% in February, while five years from now inflation is seen at 2.6% from the... More

NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations 3% vs 3.04% Prior

(Updated - April 8, 2024 11:02 AM EDT)

NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations 3% vs 3.04% Prior

The Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorks Center for Microeconomic Data today released the March 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows inflation expectations remained unchanged at the short-term horizon, increased at the medium-term horizon, and decreased at the longer-term horizon. Labor market expectations were also mixed. While expectations about earnings growth and an increase in the unemployment rate were unchanged, respondents were more pessimistic about losing their job and finding a new job. Finally, although household finance perceptions and expectations were largely unchanged, the... More

European stocks to outperform US over the next 12 months - Goldman

Goldman Sachs forecasts better 12-month returns on STOXX Europe than the S&P 500, analysts at the firm said in a note Monday.

The bank notes that European equity trades at a deep discount to the US, far more so than historically.

"Some of this is AI-related, but... More

Large cap stocks, quality names to outperform if rates move higher - Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley believes large-cap, quality equities will continue to outperform on a relative basis if rates move higher.

The investment bank explained in a note this week that the ~4.35% mark on the 10-year US Treasury yield would be an important technical level to watch for signs that rate... More

Don't chase the rally in stocks - Berenberg

Analysts at Berenberg told investors in a note not to chase equity markets from current levels.

The firm notes that global equities have been strong since the October 2023 lows, with +23% returns to recent highs.

"The 'Goldilocks trade' has played out nicely for equity investors," wrote Berenberg. "Macro... More

Wells Fargo boosts end-2024 target on S&P 500 to Street-high of 5,535

(Reuters) - Wells Fargo raised its year-end target for U.S. benchmark S&P 500 index to 5,535 on Monday - the highest among Wall Street brokerages - citing optimism around artificial intelligence and a potential easing of borrowing costs.

The index has gained 9% so far this year, broadly boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and investor frenzy around the AI boom.

"The bull market, AI's secular growth story, and... More

Details of March data to imply stronger core PCE - Citi

Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst: "After continued strength in March employment data, markets will remain sensitive to stronger inflation data that could create divisions among Fed officials in determining the timing of the first rate cut. We expect a solid 0.33% increase in core CPI in March, softer than in February... More

Wall St ends flat as investors await CPI, earnings

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks were essentially unchanged at the close of a choppy session on Monday, with a solar eclipse offering distraction ahead of crucial inflation data and the kick-off of first-quarter earnings season.

The S&P 500 and the Dow posted minimal losses while the Nasdaq ended nominally higher. All three were held in check by the highest benchmark U.S. Treasury yields since November in the wake of Friday's blowout employment report.

That report heightened chances that the Federal Reserve could delay implementing its first interest rate cut at its... More