Fed's Goolsbee: Economy Remains Strong, Jobs Data Confirms That
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Biden Says Inflation News May Delay Rate Cut - Reuters
April 10, 2024 1:40 PM EDTBiden Says Inflation News May Delay Rate Cut, We Have A Plan To Deal With Inflation - Reuters
... MoreCiti sees opportunity in risky assets on reflation trade
April 9, 2024 1:58 PM EDTWith the US economic surprise index and GDP now rising again, analysts at Citi said in a note Tuesday that the market is trading the reflation trade.
When assessing assets performance in reflation, the investment bank stated that reflation is negative for government bonds, but only slightly... More
BofA Client Flows: 'Record selling in health care'
April 9, 2024 1:39 PM EDTBank of America released its latest equity client flow trends note on Tuesday, revealing that last week, outflows continued with "record selling in health care."
The bank said that last week, when the S&P 500 was -1%, its clients were net sellers of US equities, with outflows primarily... More
Investors unwound $9.4B in long positions last week - Citi
April 9, 2024 8:30 AM EDTAnalysts at Citi said in their Equity Markets Positioning Model note on Tuesday that net positioning declined for the S&P 500 as investors unwound $9.4 billion in long positions last week.
The firm stated that this reversed most of the risk flows observed the week prior and led to a... More
Fed's Goolsbee: Undeniable That Many Are Upset With Economy
April 8, 2024 1:45 PM EDTFed's Goolsbee: Undeniable That Many Are Upset With Economy, US Economy Was On 'Golden Path' in 2023 - Reuters
... MoreAnalysts increasingly bullish on Energy stocks as rally continues
April 8, 2024 1:34 PM EDTAnalysts at BTIG and Oppenheimer noted the recent momentum in energy stocks in memos on Monday, with the firms saying they see further upside ahead.
Oppenheimer stated in its brief note that against a market grind, key action last week included a fresh breakout for... More
NY Fed finds mixed outlook for inflation expectations in March
April 8, 2024 11:09 AM EDTBy Michael S. Derby
(Reuters) -Americans outlook for inflation was mixed last month amid expectations for bigger price rises across a range of key goods and services, while worries about missing debt payments mounted, a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said on Monday.
The bank found in its March Survey of Consumer Expectations that the public sees inflation a year from now at 3%, unchanged from the prior month. The expected level of inflation three years from now rose to 2.9% from 2.7% in February, while five years from now inflation is seen at 2.6% from the... More
NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations 3% vs 3.04% Prior
April 8, 2024 11:01 AM EDT(Updated - April 8, 2024 11:02 AM EDT)
NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations 3% vs 3.04% Prior
The Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorks Center for Microeconomic Data today released the March 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows inflation expectations remained unchanged at the short-term horizon, increased at the medium-term horizon, and decreased at the longer-term horizon. Labor market expectations were also mixed. While expectations about earnings growth and an increase in the unemployment rate were unchanged, respondents were more pessimistic about losing their job and finding a new job. Finally, although household finance perceptions and expectations were largely unchanged, the... More
European stocks to outperform US over the next 12 months - Goldman
April 8, 2024 9:51 AM EDTGoldman Sachs forecasts better 12-month returns on STOXX Europe than the S&P 500, analysts at the firm said in a note Monday.
The bank notes that European equity trades at a deep discount to the US, far more so than historically.
"Some of this is AI-related, but... More
Large cap stocks, quality names to outperform if rates move higher - Morgan Stanley
April 8, 2024 8:23 AM EDTMorgan Stanley believes large-cap, quality equities will continue to outperform on a relative basis if rates move higher.
The investment bank explained in a note this week that the ~4.35% mark on the 10-year US Treasury yield would be an important technical level to watch for signs that rate... More
Don't chase the rally in stocks - Berenberg
April 8, 2024 8:03 AM EDTAnalysts at Berenberg told investors in a note not to chase equity markets from current levels.
The firm notes that global equities have been strong since the October 2023 lows, with +23% returns to recent highs.
"The 'Goldilocks trade' has played out nicely for equity investors," wrote Berenberg. "Macro... More
Wells Fargo boosts end-2024 target on S&P 500 to Street-high of 5,535
April 8, 2024 8:02 AM EDT(Reuters) - Wells Fargo raised its year-end target for U.S. benchmark S&P 500 index to 5,535 on Monday - the highest among Wall Street brokerages - citing optimism around artificial intelligence and a potential easing of borrowing costs.
The index has gained 9% so far this year, broadly boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and investor frenzy around the AI boom.
"The bull market, AI's secular growth story, and... More
Details of March data to imply stronger core PCE - Citi
April 8, 2024 7:43 AM EDTCiti economist Andrew Hollenhorst: "After continued strength in March employment data, markets will remain sensitive to stronger inflation data that could create divisions among Fed officials in determining the timing of the first rate cut. We expect a solid 0.33% increase in core CPI in March, softer than in February... More
Wall St ends flat as investors await CPI, earnings
April 8, 2024 6:42 AM EDTBy Stephen Culp
NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks were essentially unchanged at the close of a choppy session on Monday, with a solar eclipse offering distraction ahead of crucial inflation data and the kick-off of first-quarter earnings season.
The S&P 500 and the Dow posted minimal losses while the Nasdaq ended nominally higher. All three were held in check by the highest benchmark U.S. Treasury yields since November in the wake of Friday's blowout employment report.
That report heightened chances that the Federal Reserve could delay implementing its first interest rate cut at its... More
JPMorgan CEO Dimon warns inflation, rates may stay higher for longer
April 8, 2024 6:38 AM EDTJPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about the current geopolitical climate, marking it as potentially the most perilous since World War II.
In his annual letter to shareholders, Dimon refrained from reiterating his past concerns about high debt levels and the effects of quantitative tightening, focusing instead on the broad and unprecedented impacts of current geopolitical and economic forces.
These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious, Dimon wrote.
Dimon stressed the uncertainty... More
Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket
April 8, 2024 5:00 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed to higher, DAX mixed to higher, WTI Crude oil recently at $86, natural gas mixed to lower, gold at $2352
... MoreUS stock futures creep higher with inflation, earnings on tap
April 8, 2024 2:19 AM EDTInvesting.com-- U.S. stock index futures rose in evening deals on Sunday after Wall Street bounced past hotter-than-expected payrolls data, with focus now turning towards an upcoming inflation reading for more cues on interest rates.Â
Anticipation of the first-quarter earnings season- which begins this week- is also expected to keep Wall Street on tenterhooks.
Stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data on Friday saw traders drastically scale back expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by as soon as June- a notion that is expected to limit any major upside in Wall Street.
... MoreUS stocks' lofty valuations in spotlight as earnings season nears
April 5, 2024 2:47 PM EDTBy David Randall and Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. stock market is the most expensive it has been in around two years. Its valuation could be put to the test as companies report earnings in coming weeks.
The S&P 500 is up more than 9% year-to-date, following its strongest first-quarter performance since 2019. But the bar may be rising for stocks to keep advancing at that pace, increasing pressure on companies to deliver strong results.
The benchmark index trades at 20.7 times its estimated earnings for the next 12 months, near a more than two-year... More
S&P 500 will 'likely' head towards this level in the coming days - BTIG
April 5, 2024 12:48 PM EDTIn a note Friday, analysts at BTIG named the level they believe the S&P 500 will likely work its way towards.
In the note, written before Friday's open, the firm said it sees the S&P 500 moving towards its 50 DMA at 5076, stating that yesterday's action saw a clear tone shift.
"We... More
Fed cut in June remains likely - Citi
April 5, 2024 12:20 PM EDTCiti analysts believe the Federal Reserve remains on track to cut rates in June, despite recent talk suggesting the central bank may hold off.
In a research note Friday, the bank, reacting to the latest NFP data, said another strong jobs report leaves the labor market data... More
Fed's Logan: 'Much Too Soon' to Think About Cutting Rates - Bloomberg
April 5, 2024 11:01 AM EDTFed's Logan: 'Much Too Soon' to Think About Cutting Rates - Bloomberg
... MoreJobs report confirms that the Fed does not have to rush to cut rates - economist
April 5, 2024 10:43 AM EDTEvercore ISI economists said that Fridays jobs report confirms that the Federal Reserve does not have to rush to reduce interest rates this year.
The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that nonfarm payrolls rose by 303,000 in March, blasting past the Dow Jones projection of a 200,000 increase and outdoing February's revised gain of 270,000.
The... More
Active ETFs: SPY QQQ IWM TLT SLV TQQQ SQQQ GDX
April 5, 2024 10:06 AM EDTActive ETFs: SPY QQQ IWM TLT SLV TQQQ SQQQ GDX
... MoreFed Swaps Shift Full Pricing Of Rate Cut To September From July - Bloomberg
April 5, 2024 8:37 AM EDTFed Swaps Shift Full Pricing Of Rate Cut To September From July - Bloomberg
... MoreU.S. Adds 303 Thousand Jobs in March, Beating Expectations
April 5, 2024 8:30 AM EDTChange in Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 303K vs 214K Expected, Unemployment Rate 3.8%
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction.
This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical... More
Money market funds saw the biggest inflows in 13 weeks last week, BofA says
April 5, 2024 7:55 AM EDTMoney-market funds (MMF) secured the lion's share of inflows last week, Bank of America strategists noted in their weekly report, a trend reflective of the quarter-end effect.
Specifically, MMFs attracted $81.8 billion last week, the largest in 13 weeks.
However, on an annualized basis, these funds are on track to amass an inflow of $1.2 trillion, positioning this year to potentially record the second-highest inflow ever.
The breakdown of inflows for the week includes $81.8 billion into cash, $14.2 billion in stocks, and $13.4 billion into bonds. Meanwhile gold attracted $900 million, while $200 million went into... More
Core CPI inflation should cool off in March - BofA
April 5, 2024 7:27 AM EDTAnalysts at Bank of America Securities believe that after two firm reports to start the year, core CPI inflation should cool off in March.
The firm said in a note that they expect core CPI inflation to round down to 0.2% month-on-month (0.24% unrounded) owing to a slight decline in... More
Wall Street indexes rise after strong jobs data
April 5, 2024 6:23 AM EDTBy Chibuike Oguh
NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks finished higher on Friday after a strong jobs report reinforced the view that the economy remains healthy even as it suggested the Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates.
All major S&P 500 sectors advanced, with communication services, industrials and technology the top gainers.
U.S. Labor Department data showed employers hired far more workers in March than expected and kept steadily lifting wages, suggesting the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground.
The data stoked expectations the Fed will likely delay cutting interest... More
Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket
April 5, 2024 5:29 AM EDTGlobal S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei down 2%, DAX down 1.5%, WTI Crude oil recently at $86.30, natural gas mixed, gold at $2301
... MoreS&P 500 Hits Low, Down 0.8% on Geopolitical Concerns
April 4, 2024 3:21 PM EDTS&P 500 Hits Low, Down 0.8% on Geopolitical Concerns
Weakness in equities Thursday afternoon and strength in crude was tied to concerns about geopolitical risks and anticipation of Iran's response to Israel's attack on its consulate in Syria.... MoreFed's Kashkari says 2024 rate cuts under threat if inflation continues to stall
April 4, 2024 3:04 PM EDT(Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that at the U.S. central bank's meeting last month he penciled in two interest rate cuts this year but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end.
"If we continue to see... More
Kashkari: Possible Fed Won't Cut This Year If Inflation Stalls - Bloomberg
April 4, 2024 2:05 PM EDT(Updated - April 4, 2024 2:09 PM EDT)
Kashkari: Need To Forecast Some More Inflation Progress Before Cut - Bloomberg
Kashkari: Possible Fed Won't Cut This Year If Inflation Stalls... MoreFed's Goolsbee says housing price pressures pose biggest inflation risk
April 4, 2024 1:13 PM EDT(Reuters) -The largest impediment to the U.S. central bank's efforts to return inflation to its 2% target rate is the persistence of outsized price increases in the housing services sector, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday.
"The biggest danger to the inflation picture in my view... (is) the continued high inflation in housing services," Goolsbee said in remarks at an event hosted by local business associations in Oak Brook, Illinois.
He added that based on market data on rents for new leases, "I have been expecting it to come down more quickly... More
Fed's Goolsbee: Biggest danger to inflation picture is continued high inflation in housing services
April 4, 2024 1:11 PM EDT(Updated - April 4, 2024 1:15 PM EDT)
Fed's Goolsbee: Biggest danger to inflation picture is continued high inflation in housing services
I had been expecting it to come down more quickly than it has.If housing inflation does not come down, would be very difficult to return... MoreUS labor market still tight; trade seen subtracting from Q1 growth
April 4, 2024 8:46 AM EDTBy Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased to a two-month high last week, though labor market conditions remain fairly tight.
The weekly claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday also showed fewer people remaining on jobless rolls towards the end of March, suggesting that laid-off workers continued to find work, just not as easily as two years ago.
"The labor market remains very strong," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial in Pittsburgh.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally... More
