Nassim Taleb warns rising US debt could turn into 'death spiral'

Market leadership is becoming increasingly unhealthy - JPMorgan

January 30, 2024 1:35 PM EST

According to JPMorgan analyst Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, market leadership is becoming increasingly unhealthy, with a further rise in stock concentration this January compared to last year.

In a note to clients Tuesday, the analyst explained that while the weight of the top 50 stocks within the S&P 500 remains roughly unchanged, the largest ten... More

Institutional traders were big sellers last week, BofA's client data shows

January 30, 2024 9:12 AM EST

The recent trading week saw a notable shift with institutional clients engaging in significant selling, marking the first outflow from single stocks in eight weeks, according to Bank of Americas analysis of client data.

Despite the S&P 500 gaining 1.1%, the brokers clients were net sellers of US equities, totaling outflows of $0.7 billion, the first such instance in three weeks. Contrasting this, there was an inclination... More

S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City Index (Nov MoM) 0.15% vs 0.50% Expected; (YoY) 5.4% vs 5.8%

January 30, 2024 9:00 AM EST

S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City Index (Nov MoM) 0.15% vs 0.50% Expected; (YoY) 5.4% vs 5.8%

... More

FHFA House Price Index (Nov) 0.3% vs 0.3% Expected

January 30, 2024 9:00 AM EST

FHFA House Price Index (Nov) 0.3% vs 0.3% Expected

... More

Current S&P 500 rally is 'far more similar' to dotcom bubble than people think - JPM

January 30, 2024 7:28 AM EST

JPMorgan quant strategists, led by Khuram Chaudhry, have identified a plethora of similarities between the current rally in US stocks and the dot-com bubble, despite common dismissals of such parallels due to the distinct "irrational exuberance" of the latter period.

For Chaudry and his team, a key investor concern in 2024 should be the heightened and persistent concentration in the US equity markets.

He reminds investors that the top ten stocks on the MSCI USA Index, which includes the... More

Nasdaq ends lower ahead of big tech earnings, focus on Fed

January 30, 2024 6:15 AM EST

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The tech-heavy Nasdaq lost ground on Tuesday as the market awaited a spate of high profile corporate earnings and the Federal Reserve convened for its monetary policy meeting.

The S&P 500 closed nominally lower after touching a new intraday high, while the blue-chip Dow finished higher.

Shares of Alphabet Inc and Microsoft Corp fell in extended trading after the companies released their quarterly earnings reports.

"There's a lot of trepidation over the start of the earnings releases from 'the magnificent seven,'" said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in... More

Fed meeting likely to see start of debate over ending balance sheet contraction

January 30, 2024 6:06 AM EST

By Michael S. Derby

(Reuters) - Decision time is close at hand for the Federal Reserve to plan the mechanics of how it ends the winddown of a balance sheet that remains swollen by historic standards.

A readout of the U.S. central bank's final meeting of 2023 showed "several" policymakers were ready to kick off discussion about how to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) process that has seen roughly $1.3 trillion of bonds roll off a balance sheet that topped out at around $9 trillion in mid-2022.

Moreover, market participants reckon a swift removal of cash from a... More

Fed in a trust-but-verify moment as inflation falls

January 30, 2024 6:04 AM EST

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In economic projections issued after their December meeting U.S. Federal Reserve officials on balance saw a measure of underlying inflation ending 2024 at 2.4%, with the lowest of individual estimates at 2.3%.

Economists note that would require inflation to reaccelerate from its current six-month trend of just 1.9%, something many consider unlikely given the underlying math is already leaning towards at least a few more months of slowing.

If central bankers have penciled in three-quarters-of-a-percentage-point in interest rate cuts on the basis of December's outlook, what happens in their next projections in... More

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket

January 30, 2024 4:12 AM EST

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $76.50, natural mixed, gold at $2037

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What earnings are saying about current economic growth

January 29, 2024 6:00 PM EST

In its recent report released Friday, financial research firm Sevens Report shared its views on what the ongoing earnings season tells us about the current state of the U.S. economy.

Benchmark U.S. equity indexes continued their march this week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.3% Monday, climbing back above the 4,900 mark once again. The recent rally has been driven in part by positive economic and strong corporate earnings.

Notably, Q4 GDP surpassed expectations at 3.3%, with most inflation indicators meeting or falling below the Fed's 2% target last quarter.

Despite a... More

JPMorgan's Kolanovic: Valuations continue to be stretched

January 29, 2024 2:23 PM EST

This week is crucial for assessing the sustainability of mega-cap US tech stock valuations, according to JPMorgans top strategist Marko Kolanovic.

Investors expect significant earnings growth, anticipating earlier interest-rate cuts than Federal Reserve projections.

Kolanovic notes that as long as the market remains narrow and tech-driven, the US will likely outperform the Eurozone. He... More

Active ETFs: SPY QQQ IWM TLT EEM TQQQ HYG SLV FXI SMH SOXL SQQQ

January 29, 2024 2:09 PM EST

Active ETFs: SPY QQQ IWM TLT EEM TQQQ HYG SLV FXI SMH SOXL SQQQ

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Strong US economic outlook buffers stocks against rising yields -Goldman

January 29, 2024 1:47 PM EST

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A strong economic outlook is helping U.S. stocks weather a rise in Treasury yields, though that could change if factors such as tighter monetary policy drive yields higher or if they move up too fast, Goldman Sachs strategists said.

The S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yield had been negatively correlated - meaning they have moved in opposite directions - since long-term yields began rising last July, Goldman equity strategists led by David Kostin said in... More

Analyst explains why 'this could be the greatest week for event risk in many years'

January 29, 2024 12:00 PM EST

(Updated - January 29, 2024 12:05 PM EST)

This could be the greatest week for event risk in many years, analysts at Argus argued in a research note to clients on Monday.

The firm explained that to start, MSFT and GOOGL report after Tuesdays close, while AAPL, AMZN, and META report after Thursdays close, with the companies representing almost 23% of the S&P 500 and 32% of the Nasdaq 100.

In addition, the Fed... More