Bernstein estimates Arm IPO valuation at $40bn

Barclays highlights 2 downside risks for US equities

US equities are trading higher across the board on Monday, with the S&P 500 up over 0.5%, the Dow up 0.6% and the Nasdaq trading 0.3% higher. However, Barclays analyst Venu Krishna told investors in a note that the firm sees two potential sources of downside.

The first is negative operating leverage being worsened by faster disinflation. Krishna told investors that disinflation is "finally... More

Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Jun) -0.32% vs -0.13% Expected

Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Jun) -0.32% vs -0.13% Expected

Citi sees 'residual hawkish risk at Jackson Hole,' believes upside inflation risks reemerge in the fall

In his FOMC preview note Monday, Citi analyst Andrew Hollenhorst told investors that the firm sees "residual hawkish risk at Jackson Hole in late August and beyond and increasing upside risk to inflation in 2024."

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates by 25bp on... More

Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 weekly preview: All eyes on Microsoft

S&P 500 (SPX) gained 0.7% last week although the bulls werent able to secure a strong weekly close after printing a fresh 15-month-high. Still, the last week marked the eighth green weekly candle for the S&P 500 in the last 10 weeks as the generative AI frenzy keeps fueling the equities bull run.

Nasdaq (IXIC) lost 0.6% despite a strong rally in the opening days of the last week, ultimately resulting in a shooting star candle which is a bearish near-term signal for tech-heavy IXIC. A short-term pullback could push the index to revisit important support around 13200, suggesting a pullback of... More

"The last two times that US equities have been this expensive were both liquidity-fuelled bubbles" - Berenberg

Berenberg analyst Jonathan Stubbs: US equities look expensive in both absolute and relative terms compared to non-US equities. Equity bond yield gaps (excluding Japan) have compressed or even reversed in the last 12- 18 months. However, the gap between the US equity-bond yield gap and non-US yield gaps is near historical... More

Tech is now trading at a 54% premium to the market - Bernstein

Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi: "The most defining characteristic of this year's tech rally has been its narrowness. The six largest tech companies (AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, NVDA and META) have accounted for 100% of tech's relative return. Strikingly, 5 of 6 have had negative revisions for 2023 earnings over the last year. Following two years of strong outperformance from value stocks, growth has outperformed materially in the broader market (+3160 bps for the most expensive quintile of stocks vs. the least expensive) -... More

Barclays highlights 2 downside risks for equities

Barclays analyst Venu Krishna on U.S. stocks: "Valuations are up and earnings are in the hot seat as we enter the busiest weeks of summer reporting season. Estimates are heading lower for most sectors, while uncertainty is high for Big Tech. Two potential sources of downside: negative operating... More

We see residual hawkish risk at Jackson Hole in late August and beyond and increasing upside risk to inflation in 2024 - Citi

Citi economist Andrew Hollenhors on Fed: "A 25bp policy rate increase is widely expected on Wednesday at 2pm. Dots from the Feds June projections imply a subsequent 25bp hike delivered later this year we think in November. But Chair Powell will most likely give no strong guidance as to when, if... More