Odeon's Dick Bove says the Fed is Likely to Raise Rates Next Week, 'much better for markets than avoiding a rate increase'

S&P 500 Climbs 0.65%, Nasdaq Up 1%, Dow Up 0.3%

S&P 500 Climbs 0.65%, Nasdaq Up 1%, Dow Up 0.3%

S&P 500 Erases Decline, Up Slightly

S&P 500 Erases Decline, Up Slightly

Nasdaq Erases Decline, Up Slightly, S&P 500 Still Down 0.2%

Nasdaq Erases Decline, Up Slightly, S&P 500 Still Down 0.2%

Philly Fed manufacturing index contracted in March despite monthly improvement

By Scott Kanowsky

Investing.com -- A key measure of U.S. manufacturing activity came in below expectations in March, but improved marginally compared to the prior month, as recent price pressures showed potential signs of easing.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index inched up slightly for the second straight month to -23.2 from -24.3 in February but remained well within contraction territory.... More

ECB raises rates by 50 basis points, as inflation trumps financial stability fear

By Geoffrey Smith

Investing.com -- The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, pressing on with its fight to tame inflation despite signs of stress in the financial system resulting from earlier rate hikes.

The interest rate on the ECB's main... More

Stock futures fall to session lows as the ECB raises 50 bps

Stock futures fall to session lows as the ECB raises 50 bps

ECB announces monetary policy decisions, 50 bps rate increase

(Updated - March 16, 2023 9:16 AM EDT)

Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long. Therefore, the Governing Council today decided to increase the three key ECB interest rates by 50 basis points, in line with its determination to ensure the timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. The elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the importance of a data-dependent approach to the Governing Councils policy rate decisions, which will be determined by its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy... More

Philadelphia Fed (Mar) -23.2 vs -15 Expected

Philadelphia Fed (Mar) -23.2 vs -15 Expected

Housing Starts (Feb) 1.45M vs 1.31M Expected

Housing Starts (Feb) 1.45M vs 1.31M Expected

Import Price Index (Feb MoM) -0.1% vs -0.2% Expected

Import Price Index (Feb MoM) -0.1% vs -0.2% Expected

Initial Jobless Claims 192K vs 205K Expected

Initial Jobless Claims 192K vs 205K Expected

Credit Agricole: We still expect the ECB to hike by 50bp today

Credit Agricole analyst Louis Harreau: "We still expect the ECB to hike by 50bp this afternoon, but we acknowledge that the ECB is unlikely to commit to future hikes... At the same time, we expect the ECB to start a discussion on, or lay the groundwork for, financial stability... More

Hard landing chances increasing as tighter lending threatens growth & jobs - MS

Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanleys chief U.S. economist, believes the Fed will decide to increase its benchmark rate by 25 basis points next Wednesday as it continues to fight consistent inflationary pressures and a robust labor market.

The Fed has little incentive to surprise markets in this volatile environment, and we think it will stand ready to adjust the... More

Fed will watch market reaction to ECB's decision closely - JPM

From JPMorgan's morning briefing: "Feroli [JPM's chief U.S. economist] maintains his 25bps hike call for March and sees the cycle ending with a final 25bps hike in May... As the market remains in wait-and-see mode, keep an eye on SX7E post-ECB, as 50bps rate hike expectations have... More

Wall Street closes higher as First Republic helps lift banks

By David Carnevali

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A strong rebound by financials helped Wall Street's main indexes close firmly positive on Thursday, after some of the country's largest lenders came to the rescue of embattled First Republic Bank.

The technology sector also contributed to the gains, helping to boost the Nasdaq Composite to its strongest performance since Feb. 2, 2022.

The latest twist in the U.S. regional banks saga came on the heels of a 50 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank, which earlier in the day had dampened investor sentiment already hurt by fears of a... More

Tighter Lending Threatens Growth & Jobs Outlook - Morgan Stanley's Zentner

Morgan Stanley top U.S. economist Ellen Zentner: "Our banking analysts see higher funding costs and tighter lending standards ahead. Tighter lending standards will slow growth and hiring. Weekly lending and labor market data will be the first to show signs of stress, but we're not likely to see... More

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei mixed, DAX up 1%, WTI Crude oil recently at $69, natural gas mixed, gold at $1921

Goldman Sachs, JPM expect hit to US economic growth from SVB crisis

(Reuters) -The pressure on small and mid-sized U.S. banks following the swift downfall of SVB Financial Group could further slow the economy, and will likely raise the probability of a recession this year, analysts at Wall Street said.

J.P.Morgan said regulatory scrutiny on smaller banks and a run on deposits will hamper loan growth. With no offset from larger banks,... More

Global shares gain as banking sector lifelines bolster confidence

By Chris Prentice and Marc Jones

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Global equities rose on Thursday on news that a large group of banks were infusing cash into U.S. lender First Republic Bank and as a lifeline from the Swiss National Bank to Credit Suisse eased fears of a global banking crisis.

European and U.S. bond yields were also higher, as oil snapped a three-day rout.

Spot gold prices edged up.

The European Central Bank pressed forward with a 50-basis-point rate hike despite recent turmoil in financial markets.

First Republic Bank's shares... More

Net Long Term TIC Flows $31.9B vs $152.8B Prior

Net Long Term TIC Flows $31.9B vs $152.8B Prior

Nasdaq Composite Erases Decline, Flat on Session, S&P 500 Still Down 0.7%, Dow Down 0.9%

Nasdaq Composite Erases Decline, Flat on Session, S&P 500 Still Down 0.7%, Dow Down 0.9%

Nasdaq 100 Erases Declines, Goes Green

Nasdaq 100 Erases Declines, Goes Green

Goldman Sachs cuts U.S. GDP forecast after banking crisis

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday lowered its forecast for fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth, citing risks to the lending environment as smaller banks pull back on loans to preserve liquidity in the face of a banking crisis.

Analysts at the firm now expect year-over-year... More

Stocks near session lows, Dow sinks over 2%

Stocks are near session lows on Credit Suisse worries:

S&P 500 Pares Decline, Still Down 1.2%

S&P 500 Pares Decline, Still Down 1.2%

Michael Burry says stand was made this past weekend

Michael Burry says stand was made this past weekend

In October 1907,... More

Business Inventories (Jan) -0.1% vs 0.0% Expected

Business Inventories (Jan) -0.1% vs 0.0% Expected

NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar) 44 vs 40 Expected

NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar) 44 vs 40 Expected

S&P 500 Tests Intraday Low, Down 1.6%

S&P 500 Tests Intraday Low, Down 1.6%

JPMorgan cranks up equities "underweight" after market rout

LONDON (Reuters) - JPMorgan's strategists ratcheted up the investment bank's "underweight" recommendation on equities on Wednesday and urged switching into cash following the market rout caused by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse.

In a note titled "There are many carry trades, and they can't all be bailed out", JPMorgan... More

To hike or not to hike? Fed's next move in question as bank crisis feared

By Lindsay Dunsmuir and Ann Saphir

(Reuters) - With just six days to go before Federal Reserve policymakers sit down in Washington, exactly what decision they'll make on interest rates now and in coming months has become pretty much anyone's guess, and investors and Wall Street economists are doing just that.

Over the past year, Fed leadership has gone out of its way to signal its intentions on interest rate hikes aimed at quashing hot inflation, relying on a steady stream of economic data inputs to guide its actions.

But now Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his... More

S&P 500 Off Worst Level, Down 1.3%, Nasdaq Down 0.9%

S&P 500 Off Worst Level, Down 1.3%, Nasdaq Down 0.9%

Fed Swaps Show Less Than 1-in-2 Chance Of March Hike

(Updated - March 15, 2023 9:28 AM EDT)

Fed Swaps Show Less Than 1-in-2 Chance Of March Hike

U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fall in February

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in February and the rise in prices in January was not as large as initially thought, offering some hopeful signs in the fight against inflation.

The producer price index for final demand slipped 0.1% last month, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Data for January was revised down to show the PPI increasing 0.3% instead of 0.7% as previously reported.

In the 12 months through February, the PPI... More

BofA sees 'continued weakness in small caps near-term', prefers S&P 600 to Russell 2000

Bank of America equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall sees near-term risks for smaller stocks.

Russell 2000 (+0.9 year-to-date) is modestly underperforming the S&P 500 (+2.1% YTD) and Carey Hall warns that the period of underperformance may continue.

Tighter credit conditions, wider credit spreads and a higher VIX are typically more negative for small vs... More

Retail Sales Advance (Feb MoM) -0.4% vs -0.4% Expected

Retail Sales Advance (Feb MoM) -0.4% vs -0.4% Expected

PPI Final Demand (Feb Mom) -0.1% vs 0.3% Expected

PPI Final Demand (Feb Mom) -0.1% vs 0.3% Expected

Empire Manufacturing (Mar) -24.6 vs -7.9 Expected

Empire Manufacturing (Mar) -24.6 vs -7.9 Expected

We still think a 25bp rise by the Fed this month is quite likely - Credit Suisse

While Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Garthwaite believes that the Silicon Valley Bank (NASDAQ: SIVB) collapse doesnt pose a systemic risk, he warns that the market seems too optimistic on rates.

We struggle to justify market expectations of a 4.4% rate in 6 months time (this was 5.7% just a week ago) unless overall financial... More

Something bad happening to Credit Suisse would be 'like a Lehman moment' - Nouriel Roubini

'Dr.Doom' Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Macro Associates Chairman speaking to Bloomberg on the Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) drama.

Fed Swaps Price in 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec. From Expected Peak - Bloomberg

Fed Swaps Price in 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec. From Expected Peak - Bloomberg

We may have entered a new trading regime - JPMorgan

JPM's desk says "as uncertainty creeps back into the market, we may have entered a new trading regime."

Market now pricing in almost 100bp of rate cuts over next 12 months; BofA disagrees

Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy at Bank of America Global Research, urged the brokers clients to fade rate cuts that the market has started to price in recently.

According to Bloombergs data from this morning, the market is now pricing in nearly 100bp of rate cuts in the next 12 months.

The recent payrolls report and todays CPI report show continued strength which poses an... More

Stock futures down sharply on global banking worries

Stock futures are down sharply on global banking worries, sparked in part by Credit Suisse turmoil in the wake of the SVB collapse on Friday:

Fade Fed cuts says BofA, sees 3 more rate hikes this year

BofA analyst Mark Cabana on market pricing in cuts by June FOMC.

"The market is currently pricing the May-June spread at around -7bp, which equates to a 28% chance of a Fed cut in June after reaching the peak of the Fed hiking cycle in May. The recent payrolls report and todays CPI... More

BofA sees the case for continued weakness in small caps near-term

Bank of America analyst Jill Carey Hall: "The collapse of SVB & SBNY has resulted in higher risk premia and tighter credit conditions. Fed cuts may not be a panacea: equity returns have been negative, on avg., in periods of Fed easing when credit is still tightening. Tighter credit conditions,... More

Wall Street down as Credit Suisse sparks fresh bank selloff

By David Carnevali

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks pared losses late on Wednesday but the Dow and S&P 500 still closed lower, as problems at Credit Suisse revived fears of a banking crisis, eclipsing bets on a smaller U.S. rate hike this month.

Benchmark indexes regained some ground in late trade after Bloomberg reported the Swiss government was holding talks on options to stabilize the country's banking giant. The Nasdaq composite closed with slight gains.

"We are seeing movement on the headlines but not severe headlines which is good. ... I dont... More

'Value remains abnormally cheap against growth' - CS

Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Garthwaite weighs in on equities.

Fed to Consider Tougher Rules for Midsize Banks After SVB, Signature Failures - WSJ

Fed to Consider Tougher Rules for Midsize Banks After SVB, Signature Failures -- WSJ

U.S. stocks higher at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.06%

Investing.com U.S. stocks were higher after the close on Tuesday, as gains in the Technology, Financials and Consumer Goods sectors led shares higher.

At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.06%, while the S&P 500 index added 1.68%, and the NASDAQ Composite index added 2.14%.

The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Salesforce Inc (NYSE: CRM), which rose 4.13% or 7.25 points to trade at 182.76 at the close. Meanwhile, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) added 3.93% or 1.06 points to end at... More

S&P 500 Continues to Pare Gain, Still Up 0.6%

S&P 500 Continues to Pare Gain, Still Up 0.6%

Wall St relieved after inflation data but warns Fed’s fight not over

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors on Tuesday welcomed a report showing U.S. consumer prices rose at an expected monthly pace but warned of uncertainty ahead, as the Federal Reserve fights to bring down inflation while juggling a banking crisis.

Februarys inflation report showed consumer prices rising by 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 6% - in line with analysts expectations, but far above the 2% rate the Fed hopes to achieve.

The number was a relief to some investors who had worried that a stronger-than-expected report would fuel concerns over whether the Fed would... More

Oil sinks as Moody's banking downgrade drops another shoe on crisis

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com -- The assurance of authorities that alls well and dandy on the U.S. banking front hasnt won the confidence of Moody's, which downgraded the sector on Tuesday, sending crude prices down again on the notion that an economy in trouble wont help oil.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, crude was down $1.86, or 2.4%, to $72.98 per barrel by 12:55 ET (16:55 GMT). On Monday, it settled down more than 2%, hitting a two-month low of $72.33. 

London-traded Brent crude was down $1.85, or 2.3%, to $78.92. Like... More

Russian aircraft collides into U.S. unmanned system - USEUCOMM

(Updated - March 14, 2023 12:55 PM EDT)

Russian aircraft collides into U.S. unmanned system - USEUCOMM

S&P 500 Extends Gain, Now Up 2%, Nasdaq Up 2.3%

S&P 500 Extends Gain, Now Up 2%, Nasdaq Up 2.3%

Despite SVB drama, Financials attracted biggest inflows last week - Bank of America

Bank of Americas clients were net buyers of U.S. equities last week, despite the benchmark index S&P 500 dropping 4.5%.

This marks the second consecutive week of inflows. Hedge funds were selling stocks while e institutional and retail clients bought equities for the second straight week and the first time in three weeks, respectively.

Last weeks data continues... More

S&P 500 Extends Gain, Up 1.75%, Nasdaq Up 2%

S&P 500 Extends Gain, Up 1.75%, Nasdaq Up 2%

February CPI report reactions: Fed could stage a 'dramatic pivot' next week - analyst

Prices rose 0.4% in February and 6% from a year-ago period, in line with economists expectations, todays inflation figures released by BLS showed.

Core CPI came in at 0.5%, slightly hotter than expected (consensus 0.4%) but in-line with YoY estimates (5.5%).

Still-hot inflation was supported by shelter, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and airline fares, the report showed. On the other... More

A 25 bps rate hike is still a distinct possibility if financial stresses ease - Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo economists in a note to clients after the CPI report: "With more than a week to go until the next FOMC meeting, a 25 bps rate hike is still a distinct possibility if financial stresses ease."

S&P 500 Extends Gain, Up 1.5%, Nasdaq Up 1.75%

S&P 500 Extends Gain, Up 1.5%, Nasdaq Up 1.75%

The Fed has enough cover for a dramatic pivot in policy bias next week - Vital Knowledge

Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli's latest thoughts on the Fed and in the aftermath of today's in-line CPI report.

"Like the jobs report on Friday, this CPI release isnt the best-case scenario, but there are enough dovish pieces that when coupled with whats happening with banks should... More

Fed seen raising rates by 25 bps next week and in May

By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is seen raising its benchmark rate a quarter of a percentage point next week and again in May, as a government report showed U.S. inflation remained high in February, and concerns of a long-lasting banking crisis eased.

Prices of fed funds futures after the report reflected solid bets on an increase in the benchmark rate to a 4.75%-5% range at the Fed's March 21-22 meeting, with about a 15% chance seen of no change. By May the benchmark rate is seen rising further to a range of 5.00%-5.25%.

'Bearish everywhere, not just banks' claims Citi

Citi analyst Chris Montagu said Tuesday that markets are bearish everywhere, not just banks, with the SVB Financial news appearing to have amplified the bearish trend in flows.

"Markets across the board have been selling off sharply, and positioning is rapidly switching net bearish as we enter... More

U.S. CPI falls to 6.0% in February, as expected, but core prices still strong

By Geoffrey Smith

Investing.com -- U.S. headline inflation slowed again last month but core prices continued to rise at an uncomfortably fast pace.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index rose by 0.4% in February, a slowdown from 0.5% in January. The annual rate... More

Fed Swaps Show March Hike Odds Edge Up, But Still Not Fully Priced - Bloomberg

Fed Swaps Show March Hike Odds Edge Up, But Still Not Fully Priced - Bloomberg

CPI (Feb YoY) 6% vs 6% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 5.5% vs 5.5%

CPI (Feb YoY) 6% vs 6% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 5.5% vs 5.5%

CPI (Feb MoM) 0.4% vs 0.4% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 0.5% vs 0.4%

CPI (Feb MoM) 0.4% vs 0.4% Expected; Ex-food and Energy 0.5% vs 0.4%

Markets sending a message that a US recession is about to start - Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos said Tuesday that the market is sending a consistent message of fear that a US recession is about to start.

The analyst told investors in a research note that they are "now pricing in Fed cuts rather than hikes, the yield curve is bull steepening sharply, commodities and equities are down with cyclicals under-performing."

"This is all consistent with an imminent US... More

Fed easing + credit tightening = 'worst spot for stocks’, BofA warns

Bank of America equity strategist Savita Subramanian has weighed in on the ongoing market volatility and the fact that credit conditions have meaningfully tightened.

According to BofA, the market is now pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, which is a stark contrast to last weeks situation when the market was looking at three... More

'Positioning is rapidly switching net bearish' - Citi

Citi strategist Chris Montagu on equity market positioning: "S&P had nearly $11bn new shorts added in the past week and turned (marginally) net short. Meanwhile, Nasdaq positioning continued the steady pace of becoming increasingly bearish. P&L is more extended on S&P than Nasdaq positions. Financials is... More

Market fears that a US recession is about to start - DB

Deutsche Bank FX strategist George Saravelos: "The market is sending a consistent message today: it fears that a US recession is about to start. We are now pricing in Fed cuts rather than hikes, the yield curve is bull steepening sharply, commodities and equities are down with cyclicals under-... More

The Cinderella story is over for SVB and the tech VC/startup community - Wedbush's Ives

Wedbush analyst and tech bull Daniel Ives on the ongoing drama involving Silicon Valley Bank.

Fed easing + credit tightening = worst spot for stocks

BofA strategist Savita Subramanian recommended the bank's clients stick to High Quality stocks, citing both cyclical and secular reasons. She also weighed in on the recent price action and expectations going forward.

"Before equity bulls start to celebrate about a Fed pivot, remember that easy Fed policy and... More

Bear market rallies, especially in growth stocks, VC/PE, & Treasuries should be sold - BofA

Bank of America investment strategist Jared Woodard discussed "trades for when the tide goes out."

"Our preferred allocation remains cash > credit > equity > govt bonds. Rate hikes cause crackups (SVB, Silvergate, private REITs, UK gilts...) and after >$30tn in stimulus, more risks remain. Bear market rallies, especially in growth... More

We maintain our view for a 25bp rate hike in March and ongoing balance sheet reduction - BofA

Bank of America economist Ethan Harris on Fed's next move.

"In our view, the Fed took forceful steps to provide liquidity by altering access to the discount window and opening the Bank Term Funding Program. In addition, we see policymakers as implicitly guaranteeing deposits both insured and previously... More

Big Short's Michael Burry sees no 'true danger' from SVB crisis

By Ambar Warrick

Investing.com -- Hedge fund manager Michael Burry, who had famously shorted the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, said on late-Monday that the ongoing turmoil in the American banking sector could be short-lived, without posing any big threats to the economy.

This crisis could resolve very quickly. I am not seeing true danger here, Burry said in a now-deleted tweet.

Burrys comments come as the U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve intervened in the banking sector to stem... More

Wall Street ends green as inflation cools, bank jitters ebb

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks bounced back on Tuesday as largely on-target inflation data and easing jitters over contagion in the banking sector cooled expectations regarding the size of the rate hike at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed sharply higher, with the S&P 500 and the Dow gaining more than 1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surging more than 2%, after several sessions of risk-off turmoil driven by the fallout surrounding the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

Financial stocks clawed... More

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket

Global S&P Futures mixed in premarket, Nikkei lower, DAX mixed, WTI Crude oil recently at $77, natural gas mixed, gold at $1906

Little relief for US consumers as sticky rents keep inflation elevated

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices increased solidly in February as Americans faced persistently higher costs for rents, posing a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, whose fight against inflation has been complicated by the collapse of two regional banks.

Economists disagreed on whether the report from the Labor Department on Tuesday, which also showed underlying consumer prices rising by the most in five months, would compel the Fed to prioritize bringing inflation under control or focus on financial markets stability.

Some expected a quarter-point interest rate hike while others... More