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Groupon's (GRPN) Business Refocus Might Provide Upside Surprise to Q4 Results

February 26, 2013 9:56 AM EST
Groupon (Nasdaq: GRPN) has seen a little more activity to the upside lately amid an improving business model and equally improving investor sentiment.

Pundits on Groupon have largely accused the daily-deals service of sending out "spammy" email; there were only so many 50 percent off restaurant deals or free manicure deals one could stand before ignoring the email altogether or unsubscribing from the service.

Groupon is changing the way it attacks deals, however, by both leaving them up on the site longer and allowing merchants to tweak the deal to better suit its purposes. Users are now able to search for deals, meaning they're more likely to stumble across something more relevant and local than before.

Groupon is expected to report fourth-quarter results on Wednesday and early indications look strong. According to the WSJ, citing research firm Yipit, gross billings in North America from marketplace deal are expected to be up 12 percent, from a flat result in the prior year.

The Street is currently looking for EPS of 3 cents on revs of $640 million, from a loss of 2 cents per share and revs of $506.5 million reported in the same period last year.

One of Groupon's key assets to its recent growth is its huge sales force. At 5,100 globally, Groupon is several steps ahead of any rivals. The sales team helps Groupon to build a more robust and diversified base of deals, which are likely to attract more customers over the long run.

Some also question Groupon's shift to retail with its Groupon Goods business. The lower margins in the segment could easily clip profits as more and more sales are being made.

But, if tweaks can take hold, Groupon might return to the prominence many expected with its 2011 IPO. Shares are down about 2 percent Tuesday.


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