SpaceX faces "an unprecedented set of AI and space" opportunities: TD Cowen

Investing.com -- TD Cowen started coverage of SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) with a Buy rating and a $200 price target in a note Tuesday, telling investors that leasing AI computing power will drive growth in the near term, with larger opportunities in AI and space over time.

"Longer term, we expect SpaceX’s trajectory to increasingly reflect an unprecedented set of AI and space-related opportunities that nonetheless may take longer to materialize in the P&L," analyst John Blackledge wrote.

TD Cowen expects SpaceX’s ground-based AI computing business, whose customers include Google and Anthropic, to become its fastest-growing revenue stream and its largest by the first quarter of 2027.

“Terrestrial AI Compute leasing is SPCX’s biggest near-term revenue opportunity; we estimate AI Compute leasing revenue of $14BN in ’26 (35% of total SPCX rev), rising to $66BN in ’27 (~58% of total) and $133BN in ’28 (~65% of total),” wrote Blackledge. “AI Compute leasing should contribute >70% of SPCX’s total incremental revenue in ’27-’28, per our ests.”

TD Cowen forecasts SpaceX’s ground-based capacity will rise from 2.1 gigawatts this year to 6.0 gigawatts in 2027 and 22 gigawatts by 2031. Overall, it models 62% annual revenue growth from 2026 to 2031 and $297 billion in EBITDA in 2031.

On Starlink, the firm expects 107 million consumer subscribers by 2031, including 10 million in the U.S. It said enterprise and government connectivity may be the more compelling opportunity.

"No other entity will be able to match SPCX’s LEO upmass capacity, perhaps for a decade," Blackledge added, referring to the amount of cargo SpaceX can send to low Earth orbit. He expects launches to reach nearly 1,000 a year by 2031.

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