Berenberg launches space coverage, initiates 4 stocks with Buy ratings

Investing.com -- Berenberg launched coverage of the U.S. and European space sector, initiating Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, and HawkEye 360 at Buy, and Avio SpA at Hold. The new coverage joins Berenberg’s existing Buy rating on OHB SE.

Analyst Michael Filatov said falling launch costs have driven the space economy past $500 billion in 2025, with the market on track to exceed $1 trillion by 2030. Filatov said he favors "vertically integrated launch and differentiated/sovereign constellation capability that cannot easily be replicated."

The analyst initiated coverage of Rocket Lab with a Buy rating and an $83 price target. Filatov called the company "the only end-to-end public pure-play in space," citing its dominance in dedicated small launch, its Iridium acquisition, and its Space Systems segment, which he said offers "the clearest upside to consensus revenue in the near term."

AST SpaceMobile received the highest target among the group, at $92. Filatov said AST is "the only company to have demonstrated true cellular broadband from space to unmodified smartphones," backed by more than 60 mobile network operator partnerships covering roughly 3 billion subscribers.

Planet Labs was initiated with a $25 target. Filatov said the company is "the only company imaging the entire Earth daily," with revenue growth accelerating from about 10% to 42% over five quarters and a backlog up 72% year-over-year to roughly $906 million.

HawkEye 360 received a $24 target. Filatov said the company offers "unique exposure to a capability moving from niche to core in allied defence," pointing to its radio-frequency signals intelligence constellation and 33% organic growth in the second quarter.

Avio SpA was the lone Hold, with a €33 target. The Italian propulsion company’s near-term earnings are constrained by capital spending tied to its new Virginia plant, Filatov said, noting that "investors are being asked to wait for a 2029-plus payoff."

Speaking more broadly, the analyst cited defence and sovereignty spending as the sector’s most de-risked demand driver, with global defence space spending reaching $74 billion in 2025 and the U.S. Space Force’s fiscal 2027 budget request more than doubling from the prior year. He highlighted that SpaceX delivered 80% of all mass to orbit year-to-date, with one satellite executive describing launch capacity as "an existential crisis for our industry."

Longer-term, Filatov said value is migrating downstream toward connectivity and data applications, an area where it expects AST SpaceMobile, Planet Labs, and HawkEye 360 to benefit from rising demand for sovereign capabilities.

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