Bernstein’s Chhugani sees Bitcoin hitting $300k by end of 2029

Investing.com -- Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach $300,000 by 2029, framing the cryptocurrency as the primary beneficiary of what analyst Gautam Chhugani calls the debasement trade.

"Following our price-to-marginal cost framework, we would expect the next market peak to be $300K by CY2029E and the market recovering to new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027E," Chhugani wrote in a note to clients, basing the forecast on Bitcoin continuing to follow its historical four-year cycle.

Underpinning the call is the firm’s view that the 40-year era of declining interest rates has ended, leaving governments exposed to mounting debt-servicing costs at a time of unprecedented sovereign debt levels.

Bernstein said rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expense, wider deficits and greater borrowing needs.

"Faced with the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, we believe the policymakers will ultimately favor the latter, as it is politically less disruptive," the firm said, arguing investors stand to benefit from owning scarce assets that cannot easily be diluted.

Bernstein sees Bitcoin as the leading hard asset, citing a unique capital base in which roughly 60% is held by price-insensitive holders through drawdowns exceeding 50%, alongside expanding institutional and retail on-ramps.

The firm also cut its price target on Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) to $350 from $450 while keeping an Outperform rating, noting the company remains the largest corporate holder with about 4% of the world’s Bitcoin.

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