TransUnion India shows signs of recovery as revenue growth turns positive - Wolfe

Investing.com -- Wolfe Research reports that TransUnion India revenue is moving from a low point to recovery, with second quarter consumer credit growth reaching 8% year-over-year after earlier declines.

India consumer credit revenue growth improved from negative 5.5% in the first quarter to positive 8% in the second quarter as inquiry volumes stabilized and the company secured new business wins. Management expects similar growth in the third quarter and acceleration in the fourth quarter as comparisons become easier.

The India market entered 2026 with slower growth following macro and regulatory disruption that caused a sharp lending slowdown and interrupted what had been one of TransUnion's stronger growth markets.

Wolfe Research's analysis shows that CMI Demand, which measures inquiries, leads consumer credit revenue growth by four quarters with strong correlation. The regression model suggests approximately 11% year-over-year consumer credit revenue growth for the third quarter and approximately 15% for the fourth quarter.

Changes to the Mutual Credit Guarantee Scheme in March 2026 expanded MSME eligibility, reduced the required machinery share from 75% to 60%, and enhanced exporter terms. These changes broaden the borrower pool and reduce lender risk.

RBI industry-credit growth increased from 15.1% year-over-year in April to 19.2% in June, while TransUnion reported higher commercial online volumes in the second quarter.

GDP and inflation in India appear to be at or heading towards normal levels following several macro shocks, creating conditions for credit lending activity.

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