Micron: New Street upgrades to buy, says memory is no longer a cyclical story

Investing.com -- In a note on Friday, New Street Research upgraded Micron Technology to buy with a $1,250 price target, arguing the memory maker's current run breaks from the industry's historical boom-and-bust pattern.

The firm noted that "Micron's stock is up more than 10x since its lows of April 2025, while its production value, measured by COGS, is up only ~25% since," adding that "What is happening today breaks from the industry cycles we have witnessed in recent decades."

The upgrade follows a research series New Street began in July examining whether the memory cycle is structurally different.

By 2030, the firm expects Micron to hold more than $600 billion in cash on the balance sheet and generate more than $150 billion in annual free cash flow, which it described as peak numbers.

Looking beyond 2030, New Street models a milder downcycle than in past eras, with a trough of just $18 billion in free cash flow burn and more than $100 billion generated each year across a four-year downturn.

The firm expects memory demand to keep growing quickly, with AI accounting for two-thirds of the mix, and models 15% annual growth beyond 2030 against a 10% historical average over the past 20 years.

On valuation, New Street said memory has traditionally traded at roughly three to six times COGS through the cycle but argued high-bandwidth memory deserves a premium because it is structurally less cyclical than commodity DRAM.

That combination is said to imply a $2 trillion to $3 trillion market capitalization by 2030.

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