Morgan Stanley cuts Global-e rating to equal-weight, raises price target to $44

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley downgraded its view on cross-border e-commerce platform Global-e Online to Equal-weight from Overweight, saying the market now better reflects the company’s durable growth and competitive position. The bank nevertheless raised its price target to $44 from $37 as it rolled its valuation framework forward to 2028 and incorporated the impact of the Passport acquisition.

The analysts said the stock remains inexpensive relative to its growth prospects, but further valuation expansion will likely depend on a meaningful ramp in Managed Markets and clearer disclosure around take rates. They also want more detail on enterprise merchants and domestic e-commerce operations to help investors assess the medium-term trajectory of service-fee take rates.

Morgan Stanley expects second-quarter gross merchandise volume to beat the high end of guidance by 1% to 2%, helped by strength at Alo, merchant promotions, the World Cup, the Champions League and favorable foreign-exchange trends. It expects third-quarter results to come broadly in line with consensus as some of those temporary tailwinds fade.

The bank also incorporated Passport into its estimates, assuming it contributes about $25 million of revenue per quarter in the third and fourth quarters of 2026. It expects the acquisition to be neutral to slightly positive for adjusted EBITDA and lifted its 2027 and 2028 gross profit and adjusted EBITDA estimates by about 2%.

Morgan Stanley raised its 2026 revenue estimate to $1.32 billion from $1.27 billion and its 2027 forecast to $1.77 billion from $1.64 billion. It also expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $286.4 million, up from $281 million previously.

The bank said the next major catalyst is the company's Aug. 12 earnings report, while noting that a material Managed Markets ramp into 2027 could strengthen the bull case.

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