Perpetuals.com reports 380% hypothetical return in AI backtest

Perpetuals.com Ltd (Nasdaq: PDC) announced backtest results for version two of BayesShield, its patent-pending AI engine that powers UpsideOnly, a paper trading platform where users simulate trades using virtual money.

The 375-day backtest, conducted using the company's production code, replayed approximately 1.07 billion historical order fills. The test generated a hypothetical, non-compounded return of 380%, with a maximum drawdown of 27% and a return-to-drawdown ratio of 4.4. Starting with $400,000 in simulated capital, the system produced $1.522 million in hypothetical profit, ending the test with $1.922 million. The test period coincided with a 40.2% decline in Bitcoin.

The strategy recorded a positive return in every calendar quarter during the test period, with zero liquidations. On Oct. 10, 2025, when Bitcoin fell 16% within hours, the system declined by 0.7%. The testing protocol drew on data from more than 429,000 trading accounts, 70.8 million positions, and more than 22 billion historical retail trades.

BayesShield uses machine learning to identify consistently successful traders and generates automated signals when qualified traders independently take the same position at approximately the same time.

"This massive backtesting effort has provided promising signals that our BayesShield AI algorithm is working as intended," said Patrick Gruhn, CEO of Perpetuals. "Our early live, real-money results have been encouraging and generally consistent with this testing."

UpsideOnly launched in May 2026 and has accumulated more than 225,000 users and $70 billion in simulated notional trading volume across 25 assets. The company noted that the live trading period remains too limited to draw conclusions about future performance. Backtested results do not represent actual trading outcomes, and past or simulated performance is not indicative of future results.

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