Bernstein raises Robinhood price target to $160 on new market bets

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Gautam Chhugani raised his price target on Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) to $160 from $130, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock.

In a note to clients, Chhugani cited expectations for Robinhood to expand into prediction markets, perpetual futures, and tokenized equities as key drivers behind the revised target. The analyst projects Robinhood's prediction markets revenue will grow at a 64% compound annual growth rate between 2026 and 2028, reaching $1.7 billion by 2028, as the company scales its Rothera exchange joint venture.

The analyst noted that Robinhood and prediction platform Kalshi have developed what he described as a "frenemy" relationship, with Robinhood still distributing Kalshi's contracts to customers while simultaneously offering event contracts through its own Rothera exchange, which currently accounts for 16% of Robinhood's total event contract volumes.

Chhugani models new asset classes, including prediction markets, perpetual futures, and Robinhood Chain, to contribute 18% of total revenue in 2027 and 23% in 2028. He maintained a 35x one-year forward price-to-earnings multiple, based on projected revenue, EBITDA, and earnings-per-share compound annual growth rates of 32%, 47%, and 49%, respectively, between 2026 and 2028. The revised price target is based on a target earnings-per-share estimate of $4.56 for calendar year 2028, which the analyst noted is 39% ahead of consensus.

For Robinhood's second quarter, Chhugani expects results to be in line with consensus, with prediction markets revenue offsetting weakness in crypto.

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