Bernstein sets Street-high ASML target as capacity, pricing and margins all beat

Investing.com -- Bernstein raised its price target on ASML Holding NV to €2,500 from €2,300 in a note Thursday, describing the company's second-quarter 2026 results as "triple happiness" following a beat and raise across the top line, capacity and margins.

Analyst David Dai maintained an Outperform rating on the stock, identifying three major upside drivers.

First, ASML plans to boost Low NA EUV and ArFi capacity by 30% each year for 2027 and 2028, with DUV capacity of 220 in 2028 coming in above expectations.

Second, Bernstein sees pricing upside, estimating ASML's EUV average selling price will rise 10% in 2027 based on management commentary that Low NA EUV throughput is up 45% year-over-year while capacity is up 30%, with another high-single-digit percentage increase expected in 2028.

Third, the firm cited margin uplift, noting ASML's guided margin for the second half of 2026 is 56%, above consensus at 52.6%.

Bernstein raised its 2027/2028 revenue estimates to €56 billion and €72 billion, with EPS estimates lifted to €53.6 and €75.3, 37% above consensus for 2028.

Elsewhere, Barclays also raised its price target on the stock to €2,400 from €2,000, reiterating an Overweight rating.

Analyst Simon Coles said gross margins were "the major positive this quarter," driven by China DUV recovery, improving EUV pricing and a strong upgrades business.

Barclays increased its revenue estimates by 11% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, noting ASML shares remain attractive despite appreciating roughly 150% since September 2025.

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